Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The following is taken from Dr John Campbell's latest video today. Now, I know the government advisors and SAGE have to plan for the worst in all scenarios, but why does it seem they completely ignoring this data coming out from South Africa?

From Dr Richard Friedland, chief executive officer Netcare (South African Private Health company):

"Omicron variant data, Covid-19 symptoms now are far milder than the first three waves.
Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals, their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves.
Approximately 90% of Covid-19 patients currently in our hospitals require no form of oxygen therapy, and are considered incidental cases.
If this trend continues, it would appear that, with a few exceptions of those requiring tertiary care, the fourth wave can be adequately treated at a primary care level.
Of the patients admitted to Netcare hospitals and facilities since 15 November 75% not vaccinated"

Some comparison stats from South Africa:

In the first three waves Netcare, across 49 acute-care hospitals treated 126,000 Covid-19 patients, of whom, 44% required admission 26% required High Care or ICU.
Significantly, all Covid-19 patients admitted were sick and required some form of oxygen therapy. (Compared to only 10% from Omicron)
The high admission rate, as well as the high percentage of patients requiring ICU or high care is indicative of the severity of cases during the first three waves.

Currently, 337 Covid-19 positive patients admitted (72% of these patients are in the Gauteng area and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal).
Of these 337, approximately 10% are on some form of oxygenation versus 100% in the first three waves.
Eight of 337 (2%) are being ventilated of these, two are primary trauma cases.

Dr Fareed Abdullah, Office of Aids and TB Research, SA Medical Research Council:

"80% of admissions below the age of 50 years, throughout the Gauteng province in the last two weeks.
The best indicator of disease severity is measured by the in-hospital death rate.
There were 10 deaths in the in the past two weeks (cohort of 166), making up 6.6% of the 166 admissions. (Compared with 23% for all previous waves)
Four deaths, aged 26-36
Five deaths, aged over 60
There were no Covid-19-related deaths among 34 admissions in the paediatric Covid wards over the last two weeks."

I would suggest from the data from my area (below) and elsewhere that the new Covid peak is disproportionately in the young, compared with the last peak. Thus the lower mortality rate may reflect the age of those who are catching it. However this may still mean that the new varient is highly lethal in the older members of the population. 'Less severe' may simply mean that the average severity of illness is much less than last time because those affected are on average younger. I don't feel quite as 'safe' as I felt a few days ago...

 

[Trevor]

I would suggest from the data from my area (below) and elsewhere that the new Covid peak is disproportionately in the young, compared with the last peak. Thus the lower mortality rate may reflect the age of those who are catching it. However this may still mean that the new varient is highly lethal in the older members of the population. 'Less severe' may simply mean that the average severity of illness is much less than last time because those affected are on average younger. I don't feel quite as 'safe' as I felt a few days ago...

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Good point. However, am I correct in saying that Omicron is not yet the dominant virus

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Good point. However, am I correct in saying that Omicron is not yet the dominant virus

You are correct. But [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] is also correct that very soon it will be.

As the whale in Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy said, as it burst into existence and hurtled towards the planet Magrathea:

"I wonder if it will be friends?".

 

[Trevor]

You are correct. But [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] is also correct that very soon it will be.

As the whale in Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy said, as it burst into existence and hurtled towards the planet Magrathea:

"I wonder if it will be friends?".

Yes, probably not very friendly.

So I get the logic about speeding up the booster rollout. I can understand that (for example) if the new variant is half as serious (say in terms of hospital admissions) but five times as transmissible then that would result in many more hospitalisations (although the prospects for an individual catching old vs new "might" be improved*)

The bit that I don't understand is why we are doing a single-pronged attack (yeah yeah the wfh as well). It seems to me that multiple social interactions over the next little time is also really problematic (18 people at my work's christmas do for example) - maybe we are not restricting here for political reasons.

* - acknowledging your point

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yes, probably not very friendly.

So I get the logic about speeding up the booster rollout. I can understand that (for example) if the new variant is half as serious (say in terms of hospital admissions) but five times as transmissible then that would result in many more hospitalisations (although the prospects for an individual catching old vs new "might" be improved*)

The bit that I don't understand is why we are doing a single-pronged attack (yeah yeah the wfh as well). It seems to me that multiple social interactions over the next little time is also really problematic (18 people at my work's christmas do for example) - maybe we are not restricting here for political reasons.

* - acknowledging your point

You have hit the nail on the head.

The Johnson understands that vaccination is effective so he's pushing it.

But he is a libertarian so he does not want to 'make' people be vaccinated. And he will not penalise anyone who 'for legitimate reasons ' (which are, of course, their own business) is unwilling to be vaccinated. And he does not consider it appropriate to keep a record of individuals who are unvaccinated - this is not a police state. And of course it would send the wrong message to restrict the freedoms of this great nation.

So he hides behind a facade of flattering people into believing that he regards us so highly he is prepared to trust us to do the right thing.

Those that plan to do the right thing, and are a bit dim and patriotic, think this is tremendous.

Many of us who think this is no plan at all are scared and angry.

And the chav entitled shitterati don't care because IT'S CHRIIIIIIIIISTMAS!!!!

:

 

[Bold Seagull]

Anyone else feel that just anecdotally right now, it seems as bad as I can remember in the whole pandemic, schools & colleges, work places, health and leisure places, I'm surrounded by close friends, kids and their friends, all reporting having it now or re-catching it? Just a sense that it's further off the scale that the statistics seem to show. Just anecdotally right, so don't take this post as serious, it is just my mate said, she said, he said around me at present.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Anyone else feel that just anecdotally right now, it seems as bad as I can remember in the whole pandemic, schools & colleges, work places, health and leisure places, I'm surrounded by close friends, kids and their friends, all reporting having it now or re-catching it? Just a sense that it's further off the scale that the statistics seem to show. Just anecdotally right, so don't take this post as serious, it is just my mate said, she said, he said around me at present.

As bad as you can remember? It depends what weight you put on the outcomes. Anecdotally and probably truly, there are more cases than at any time in the past two years. But the number of deaths is less than 10%of the peak.

Are you surrounded by vaccinated friends with minor or zero symptoms?

 

[Bold Seagull]

As bad as you can remember? It depends what weight you put on the outcomes. Anecdotally and probably truly, there are more cases than at any time in the past two years. But the number of deaths is less than 10%of the peak.

Are you surrounded by vaccinated friends with minor or zero symptoms?

Sorry, when I say as bad as I can remember, I mean specifically around me, I'm not putting any weight on outcomes, severity or what should be done, it was just an observation - apologies as that was a bit insensitively put. Luckily, don't really know anyone who has been hospitalised by it. Everyone I am in contact with I believe is vaccinated, I've not spoken with anyone who isn't. Just this friend has it, friend of a friend, a kid's friend from school, daughter's mate at college, someone I'm doing work for, person up the road, the wife has just been pinged etc. etc. Just seems all around us at present.

I completely get your points in the wider context, I was just putting out there whether anyone else has a sense that outside those crucial statistics you mention, are people feeling it increasing around them?

 

[Swansman]

Anyone else feel that just anecdotally right now, it seems as bad as I can remember in the whole pandemic, schools & colleges, work places, health and leisure places, I'm surrounded by close friends, kids and their friends, all reporting having it now or re-catching it? Just a sense that it's further off the scale that the statistics seem to show. Just anecdotally right, so don't take this post as serious, it is just my mate said, she said, he said around me at present.

There is probably a lot of cases right now (the number of cases in football teams is probably a decent indicator) and that will also probably remain the case for the foreseeable future (in covid terms that would be the next few months). Not unexpected really. But it doesnt necessarily mean it will be as bad as in the last few years with 3k+ ICU patients during the peaks. While I wouldnt listen too much to the positive signs in SA (too many differences compared to Europe= that Omicron leads to limited hospitalisations, it is also too early to worry the other way around. By the end of the month I'm guessing we will have a lot of clarity on the potential impact of Omicron and what could be the necessary measures. There is a chance a full lockdown will be necessary, there is a chance that some measures are enough, there is a chance that no further action is needed - we'll know soon enough.

I've said it before, hospitalisations (and the relation between numbers of cases and numbers of ICU patients) is a lot more important than just the number of infected.

 

[Weststander]

Anyone else feel that just anecdotally right now, it seems as bad as I can remember in the whole pandemic, schools & colleges, work places, health and leisure places, I'm surrounded by close friends, kids and their friends, all reporting having it now or re-catching it? Just a sense that it's further off the scale that the statistics seem to show. Just anecdotally right, so don't take this post as serious, it is just my mate said, she said, he said around me at present.

Yes, definitely.

I knew so few people with Covid over the last 21 months, now it’s many colleagues and family.

The observation I’d make is that no one I know has come anywhere close to being hospitalised. For a few days - relentless tickly cough, sneezing, feeling cold, a bit of a fever, knackered.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Yes, definitely.

I knew so few people with Covid over the last 21 months, now it’s many colleagues and family.

The observation I’d make is that no one I know has come anywhere close to being hospitalised. For a few days - relentless tickly cough, sneezing, feeling cold, a bit of a fever, knackered.

The announcement that the PL has a record 42 cases over 7 days appears to echo that too.

Best wishes for a swift recovery.

 

[loz]

Yes, definitely.

I knew so few people with Covid over the last 21 months, now it’s many colleagues and family.

The observation I’d make is that no one I know has come anywhere close to being hospitalised. For a few days - relentless tickly cough, sneezing, feeling cold, a bit of a fever, knackered.

Same as that, know loads in the last month who have had the ol rona and luckily no one who has been that ill

 

[highflyer]

As bad as you can remember? It depends what weight you put on the outcomes. Anecdotally and probably truly, there are more cases than at any time in the past two years. But the number of deaths is less than 10%of the peak.

Are you surrounded by vaccinated friends with minor or zero symptoms?

Number of deaths right now is entirely irrelevant. We've all learnt by now (haven't we...surely?) that the lag is several weeks. Even hospitalization numbers lag behind case numbers by 2-3 weeks. So we don't yet know how this plays out.

That said the same anecdotal evidence that says cases are high also says that symptoms are generally much milder so far.

I'm guessing that is due to:

a) As per @HWT younger people are getting infected first, so it initially looks mild because initial cases are young people who are more likely to get it mildly
b) Most of those that would be likely to get it more severely (older and vulnerable) are now triple jabbed and thus either not getting it at all or getting it mildly. Hopefully this continues to be the case
c) lots of immunity in the population from previous infections
d) maybe it really IS just a bit milder - the SA doctors that have seen the most cases for the longest time think so and I suspect their gut feeling is reliable by now. And analysis that tries to screen out other factors also suggest this seems to be the case

That all balances against the regularly repeated FACT that a small % of a very big number is still a big number.

It's pretty clear now this is going to spread VERY fast and case numbers ARE going to be very high for a while. There's probably a limited amount we can do about that. Full lockdown might only delay things. Maybe it buys time to get more boosters into arms, but hopefully we aren't far off having the majaority of vulnerable people triple jabbed now anyway.The plus side of that is that it could sweep through pretty quickly and be done within a couple of months. In the meantime anyone that feels vulnerable probably wants to stay out of circulation as far as possible.

A positive anecdote:

A friend is highly vulnerable. Full shielding for the first two lockdowns. Now triple jabbed. Got covid a couple of weeks ago. No worse than a mild cold.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

[MENTION=33872]highflyer[/MENTION]

A friend is highly vulnerable. Full shielding for the first two lockdowns. Now triple jabbed. Got covid a couple of weeks ago. No worse than a mild cold


Glad to hear they are ok

This message seems to have gotten lost somewhere, the vaccine stopping you from catching it was a bonus, the main point of the vaccine was to stop what you have described turning into someone in a hospital bed.

 

[highflyer]

[MENTION=33872]highflyer[/MENTION]

A friend is highly vulnerable. Full shielding for the first two lockdowns. Now triple jabbed. Got covid a couple of weeks ago. No worse than a mild cold


Glad to hear they are ok

This message seems to have gotten lost somewhere, the vaccine stopping you from catching it was a bonus, the main point of the vaccine was to stop what you have described turning into someone in a hospital bed.

That was the (positive) point I was making
A year ago, him catching Covid would have been a major drama - likely putting him in hospital and possibly worse
But now, just a cold. The vaccine worked for him.

I (also triple jabbed) was at the same superspreader event that he caught it. And got nowt despite definite exposure. Vaccines worked even better for me!

 

[crodonilson]

The BMA has spoken up and declared a national health emergency, when will the government listen?

the British Medical Association said the vaccination campaign would not be enough to stop the spread of Omicron, with one in four still not eligible for a booster. They called for a return to face masks in pubs and restaurants, 2 metre social distancing indoors, limits on public gatherings, legal requirements for ventilation in schools and other settings, more rapid testing and advice to wear FFP2 masks.

 

[dsr-burnley]

The BMA has spoken up and declared a national health emergency, when will the government listen?

the British Medical Association said the vaccination campaign would not be enough to stop the spread of Omicron, with one in four still not eligible for a booster. They called for a return to face masks in pubs and restaurants, 2 metre social distancing indoors, limits on public gatherings, legal requirements for ventilation in schools and other settings, more rapid testing and advice to wear FFP2 masks.

Nothing will stop the spread of omicron. Nothing at all. What the BMA are proposing is to slow it down. They are no doubt correct that if we have another severe lockdown, and make the next couple of years into a repeat of the last couple, then this January will be better than it would be otherwise.

But at what cost? Are they still working, as at least some of the authorities have been all along, on the basis that it doesn't matter how many people die as long as they don't have covid on their death certificate?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Nothing will stop the spread of omicron. Nothing at all. What the BMA are proposing is to slow it down. They are no doubt correct that if we have another severe lockdown, and make the next couple of years into a repeat of the last couple, then this January will be better than it would be otherwise.

But at what cost? Are they still working, as at least some of the authorities have been all along, on the basis that it doesn't matter how many people die as long as they don't have covid on their death certificate?

If it’s as contagious as predicted this stuff is just a bit meh, even a lockdown won’t really help unless it’s to get zero Covid and then shut absolutely everything.

Vaccines remain the way out.

 

[Bodian]

Anyone else feel that just anecdotally right now, it seems as bad as I can remember in the whole pandemic, schools & colleges, work places, health and leisure places, I'm surrounded by close friends, kids and their friends, all reporting having it now or re-catching it? Just a sense that it's further off the scale that the statistics seem to show. Just anecdotally right, so don't take this post as serious, it is just my mate said, she said, he said around me at present.

Interesting - about a month ago loads of my colleagues and neighbours had it. Not through catching it from each other - they were all parents, and in almost all the instances I knew of it was a child brought it home. All had mild effects (heavy cold type / day or so in bed, etc) Must have swept through the area, as I don't know anyone at the present moment.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Last week, Johnson said the following:

“….a wave of Omicron through a population that was not boosted would risk a level of hospitalisation that could overwhelm our NHS and lead sadly to very many deaths….”

But the data from South Africa is astonishing. We’ve been told to wait for the Omicron deaths to mount up but instead, as the Omi-infection rates have increased, it seems the death rate has decreased. There were just 21 deaths yesterday. When will all these promised deaths come? Why is the death rate dropping as the infection rate rises? Don’t take my word for it, look at the data yourselves:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

The truth Johnson is hiding is that the booster roll out has been too slow and Delta is overwhelming the population. Delta is out of control and more dangerous than ever as double jabs efficacy expires. Johnson is gaslighting. Delta is the real killer and if you are only double jabbed, you are in a very weak position.

Get your booster ASAP. Stop Delta then help stop Johnson (and the FIA for that matter).