Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

Guardian story is typical tabloid. headline: Top UK health official cautions against festive season social events. content: "...urged everyone in the UK to cut down their social contact – even if only by a little", actual quote "So I think being careful, not socialising when we don’t particularly need to and particularly going and getting those booster jabs".

so in 100 words we go from dont socialise to be a bit selective about which parties you go to.

 

[beorhthelm]

South African Health bod says this:

Director of CERI: Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation,


I will not accept charted planes with reagents as the Travel ban is so damaging to our economy. There are more effective ways to avoid introductions of variants (such as pre-and post- arrival tests, vaccinations, self- or forced- isolation) than blanked travel bans...
Quote Tweet

Tulio de Oliveira
@Tuliodna
· 16h
Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban!

bizarre.

 

[Bozza]

Oh.

The chief executive of the US drugmaker Moderna has predicted that existing vaccines will be less effective against Omicron than they have been against the Delta version, sending global stock markets sharply lower.

Stéphane Bancel said while it would take two weeks to get data on how the existing vaccines perform against the new Covid variant – and whether it causes severe disease – it would take several months to tweak the current vaccines to tackle Omicron.

“There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness] is the same level … we had with Delta,” Bancel told the Financial Times.

Bancel said the high number of Omicron mutations on the spike protein, which the virus uses to infect human cells, and the rapid spread of the variant in South Africa suggested existing vaccines would not be very effective, predicting a “material drop” in the effectiveness.​

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...accines-may-be-less-effective-against-omicron

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

bizarre.

I concur, but it shows the dangers of isolating the country that is brave enough to announce it.


Darren McCaffrey
[MENTION=4487]darren[/MENTION]mccaffrey
BREAK: In the Netherlands authorities say they found #Omicron in two samples taken on November 19th and 23th, A WEEK earlier than thought (AFP)


So is it now the Dutch variant?

 

[dsr-burnley]

Oh.

The chief executive of the US drugmaker Moderna has predicted that existing vaccines will be less effective against Omicron than they have been against the Delta version, sending global stock markets sharply lower.

Stéphane Bancel said while it would take two weeks to get data on how the existing vaccines perform against the new Covid variant – and whether it causes severe disease – it would take several months to tweak the current vaccines to tackle Omicron.

“There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness] is the same level … we had with Delta,” Bancel told the Financial Times.

Bancel said the high number of Omicron mutations on the spike protein, which the virus uses to infect human cells, and the rapid spread of the variant in South Africa suggested existing vaccines would not be very effective, predicting a “material drop” in the effectiveness.​

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...accines-may-be-less-effective-against-omicron

Has he any evidence, though? They speculated the same thing about vaccines not working against delta variant as they did against alpha, with little or no evidence.

Let's remember that this vaccine is not designed for delta variant. It's designed for alpha or for the original, "pre-mutation" virus. So it isn't as if we had a purpose-built tailor-made virus that worked perfectly against delta and is bound to be less well against other variants. This is an off-the-peg vaccine that might work worse against omicron, or might work better, or might make no odds either way. If they want to take precautions on the basis that it might be worse, then fair enough; but they have forecast doom and gloom and vaccine escape before, and been wrong.

 

[Bozza]

Has he any evidence, though? They speculated the same thing about vaccines not working against delta variant as they did against alpha, with little or no evidence.

Let's remember that this vaccine is not designed for delta variant. It's designed for alpha or for the original, "pre-mutation" virus. So it isn't as if we had a purpose-built tailor-made virus that worked perfectly against delta and is bound to be less well against other variants. This is an off-the-peg vaccine that might work worse against omicron, or might work better, or might make no odds either way. If they want to take precautions on the basis that it might be worse, then fair enough; but they have forecast doom and gloom and vaccine escape before, and been wrong.

Evidence, well no. Strange question when we know no-one knows yet, and the piece literally says he is predicting. I predict that we'll lose to West Ham tomorrow night, but I'm light on evidence on that right now.

But he seems to be the sort of chap well-placed to make predictions on this kinda thing.

This chap, also in the industry, isn't hopeful either. He talks about data and stuff in various replies - goes way over my head though. However I had read that the number of mutations present in Omicron essentially make it SARS-CoV-2, as it is so different to what we have already seen.

[tweet]1465261953991933955[/tweet]

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Oh.

The chief executive of the US drugmaker Moderna has predicted that existing vaccines will be less effective against Omicron than they have been against the Delta version, sending global stock markets sharply lower.

Stéphane Bancel said while it would take two weeks to get data on how the existing vaccines perform against the new Covid variant – and whether it causes severe disease – it would take several months to tweak the current vaccines to tackle Omicron.

“There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness] is the same level … we had with Delta,” Bancel told the Financial Times.

Bancel said the high number of Omicron mutations on the spike protein, which the virus uses to infect human cells, and the rapid spread of the variant in South Africa suggested existing vaccines would not be very effective, predicting a “material drop” in the effectiveness.​

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...accines-may-be-less-effective-against-omicron

Where as Oxford a slightly more positive currently.

But in a statement, the university stressed the vaccine continued to provide high levels of protection despite the appearance of other new variants, including Delta.

A University of Oxford spokesperson said: “Due to the very recent discovery of the new B.1.1.529 (Omicron) strain of coronavirus, there are limited data available at this time.

As with any new variant, we will carefully evaluate the implications of the emergence of B.1.1.529 for vaccine immunity.

“Despite the appearance of new variants over the past year, vaccines have continued to provide very high levels of protection against severe disease and there is no evidence so far that Omicron is any different.

“However, we have the necessary tools and processes in place for rapid development of an updated Covid-19 vaccine if it should be necessary.’

 

[Bozza]

Where as Oxford a slightly more positive currently.

But in a statement, the university stressed the vaccine continued to provide high levels of protection despite the appearance of other new variants, including Delta.

A University of Oxford spokesperson said: “Due to the very recent discovery of the new B.1.1.529 (Omicron) strain of coronavirus, there are limited data available at this time.

As with any new variant, we will carefully evaluate the implications of the emergence of B.1.1.529 for vaccine immunity.

“Despite the appearance of new variants over the past year, vaccines have continued to provide very high levels of protection against severe disease and there is no evidence so far that Omicron is any different.

“However, we have the necessary tools and processes in place for rapid development of an updated Covid-19 vaccine if it should be necessary.’

I read that as more of the "We don't know yet - please hold the line caller..." that was the broad message a few days back.

It does feel like the mood music on predicted vaccine efficacy has changed somewhat over the last 24 hours or so.

Of course, there may be a difference in how the old-fashioned AZ vaccine holds up and how the new-fangled mRNA vaccines perform. Again - all way over my head.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I read that as more of the "We don't know yet - please hold the line caller..." that was the broad message a few days back.

It does feel like the mood music on predicted vaccine efficacy has changed somewhat over the last 24 hours or so.

Of course, there may be a difference in how the old-fashioned AZ vaccine holds up and how the new-fangled mRNA vaccines perform. Again - all way over my head.

Well quite.

We could be in a position where 1 doesn’t hold up as well as the other 2 used here.

The Moderna chap also mentioned they can up the booster dose if needed.

We wait.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Evidence, well no. Strange question when we know no-one knows yet, and the piece literally says he is predicting.

There is some real world evidence, as opposed to lab evidence. It's patchy and limited, but it's there. In general throughout this pandemic, the predictions about new variants and vaccines and such coming out of theoretical laboratory testing have tended not to be matched by real world data. Even with the limited real world data we have so far re. omicron, I would like to hear it rather than theoretical lab work.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

There are two strands to the vaccine

One is to stop infections the other is to stop severe illness and death. With each variant we have seen a chipping away at the vaccine ability to ward off infection, but it still protects against severe illness/death.

With this new variant, Moderna CE might be talking about effectiveness of the vaccine to stop infections.

I know this variant is a lot different, but we have had doom sayers before with the Brazilian variant, the previous South African variant etc. Until, we know for sure we really do not know (and to be honest the Moderna CE falls into that category) how the current vaccines will work. Hopefully, they prevent vulnerable from severe illness and death.

 

[Bozza]

There is some real world evidence, as opposed to lab evidence. It's patchy and limited, but it's there. In general throughout this pandemic, the predictions about new variants and vaccines and such coming out of theoretical laboratory testing have tended not to be matched by real world data. Even with the limited real world data we have so far re. omicron, I would like to hear it rather than theoretical lab work.

Any real world evidence must be patchy as hell, putting it kindly.

This variant was first noticed on 9th November and only formally reported on 24th November. We know very little about spread/transmissibility because no countries were actively looking for it, until the last few days, when many nations have started to go back and re-process recent tests.

In terms of illness - again, relatively few people have knowingly got sick with it. I've seen it reported that South Africa sequence around 1% of their cases so, again until recently, they wouldn't have known who had what flavour of the virus. South Africa also has a younger demographic, largely unvaxxed, so observations there may not translate to other countries, in either good or bad ways.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Greece bring in mandatory Vaccines for the over 60

£100 fine a month for those not jabbed.

Not a fan of this approach

 

[beorhthelm]

...
The Moderna chap also mentioned they can up the booster dose if needed.

We wait.

which seems a little contradictory, moar vaccine doesnt really make it work more. i think he's talking his own book, which coincidently isnt doing very well due to production problems.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Greece bring in mandatory Vaccines for the over 60

£100 fine a month for those not jabbed.

Not a fan of this approach

In the UK maybe not but here, with low vaccine rates and a hugely underfunded healthcare system, its completely necessary.

This law will protect the vulnerable from covid AND protect the young couple in a car accident who might need ICU care. Currently, there isn't space for all of them right now.

 

[e77]

I would say the head of a pharmacy company predicting that the vaccine they produced for a strain of virus saying it is not going to be as effective against a fairly (was going to say heavily but that might be overstating it so won't) mutated version of the same virus is probably talking sense.

We tried wait and see before and it didn't end well. Bring in some precautions now and you can all laugh at the likes of me in a couple of months time if the new strain amounts to nothing if it makes you feel better.

 

[n1 gull]

Whatever your point of view about the new restrictions, I hope people take a moment to think about the hospitality industry;

Sacha Lord [MENTION=29514]SAC[/MENTION]ha_Lord
· 25m
Every restaurant I've spoken to today, is now experiencing Xmas party cancellations.

Most of these businesses desperately needed a good December.

The knock on effect will be catastrophic.

Businesses, jobs, supply chain. A blow to a devastating year.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I would say the head of a pharmacy company predicting that the vaccine they produced for a strain of virus saying it is not going to be as effective against a fairly (was going to say heavily but that might be overstating it so won't) mutated version of the same virus is probably talking sense.

We tried wait and see before and it didn't end well. Bring in some precautions now and you can all laugh at the likes of me in a couple of months time if the new strain amounts to nothing if it makes you feel better.

How many people have that jab in the UK? Not many ? Which good be a positive Seems the other 2 makers are less negative.

I’m not against these

The danger is if as we all hope, it’s a nothing - the Government will lose a percentage of the people who will claim it’s crying wolf.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Whatever your point of view about the new restrictions, I hope people take a moment to think about the hospitality industry;

Sacha Lord [MENTION=29514]SAC[/MENTION]ha_Lord
· 25m
Every restaurant I've spoken to today, is now experiencing Xmas party cancellations.

Most of these businesses desperately needed a good December.

The knock on effect will be catastrophic.

Businesses, jobs, supply chain. A blow to a devastating year.

They had a few people on the TV earlier saying they are reinstalling screens etc

 

[Fungus]

They had a few people on the TV earlier saying they are reinstalling screens etc

And Sainsbury’s are employing security staff again.