Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Boys 9d]

Could it be that having made face coverings non mandatory and realising their mistake, have the Government jumped at an excuse to reverse that decision without appearing to have done a U-turn?

 

[Pondicherry]

Unfortunately, all your conclusions are based on a false premise so they can all be disregarded. The Swedish report quite emphatically does not say there is no measurable benefit after 211 days.

Here's the report interpretation summary.

"Interpretation: Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 infection wanes progressively over time across all subgroups, but at different rate according to type of vaccine, and faster for men and older frail individuals. The effectiveness against severe illness seems to remain high through 9 months, although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities. This strengthens the evidence-based rationale for administration of a third booster dose."

In conjunction with the earlier part of the report, what they are saying is that effectiveness of the vaccine against symptomatic covid is somewhere between -2% and 41% after 211 days, but effectiveness against serious illness is still high. Or put another way, the survey concludes that if you were vaccinated against covid in April, you might get it again but it is unlikely to be serious.

It is obviously nonsense to suggest that prevention of serious illness is not a measurable benefit. Please think again about the Swedish report.

Here are the actual figures from the report rather than the summary:

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection
During a mean (range) follow-up of 116 (15-280) days, a symptomatic infection was
confirmed in a total of 27,918 individuals, of which 6,147 were vaccinated individuals
(incidence rate [IR], 4·9/100,000 person-days) and 21,771 were unvaccinated individuals (IR,
31·6/100,000 person-days). As shown in Figure 2 and Table 2, there was a progressive
waning in vaccine effectiveness (2 doses of any vaccine) against symptomatic infection over
time. Effectiveness peaked at day 15-30 (92%; 95% CI, 91-93, P<0·001) and declined
marginally at day 31-60 (89%; 95% CI, 88-89, P<0·001). From thereon, the waning became
more pronounced, and from day 211 days onwards, there was no remaining detectable
effectiveness (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).


Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization and death
During a mean follow-up of 113 (15-274) days, there were 277 cases of Covid-19
hospitalization or death among vaccinated individuals (IR, 0·23/100,000 person-days) and
825 cases among unvaccinated individuals (IR, 1·21/100,000 person-days) (Supplemental
Figure 1 and Supplemental Table 2). Vaccine effectiveness (any vaccine) was 89% at day 15-
30 (95% CI, 83-93, P<0·001), which declined to 74% (95% CI, 47-87, P<0·001) by day 121-
180, and from day 181 and onwards, there was no detectable associated effectiveness (42%;
95% CI, -35-75, P=0·21).

 

[crodonilson]

Could it be that having made face coverings non mandatory and realising their mistake, have the Government jumped at an excuse to reverse that decision without appearing to have done a U-turn?

Doubt it as they've already said they hope and expect these will be temporary and can be reversed when reviewed in 3 weeks. If we can get people having the discipline to wear face masks where it is a legal requirement, hopefully we can get people to change their behaviours in other settings too. I think we should continue with face coverings now until we're into late Spring and past all the real issues the NHS might get over the coming months.

 

[dazzer6666]

Interesting that cases around Twickenham have spiked following the Eng v SA rugby match last weekend. With 9,000 South Africans coming into the country in the last couple of weeks Omicron is bound to be here in numbers already.......

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
13 cases of the Omicron variant in Portugal- Lisbon Soccer Team. Most of the players are vaccinated, and they are either ASYMPTOMATIC or have MILD symptoms. Remember, Portugal has an 87% vaccination rate! https://reuters.com/business/health...3-cases-omicron-covid-19-variant-2021-11-29/…
2:32 PM · Nov 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
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Dan Smith

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Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
·
15m
Replying to [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
I’d like to add onto Portugal that older staff (NOT just younger players) have been infected as well. “Two or three players and two or three staff have symptoms, but nothing too serious, the rest are asymptomatic.” This is why vaccination is important.

 

[dazzer6666]

Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
13 cases of the Omicron variant in Portugal- Lisbon Soccer Team. Most of the players are vaccinated, and they are either ASYMPTOMATIC or have MILD symptoms. Remember, Portugal has an 87% vaccination rate! https://reuters.com/business/health...3-cases-omicron-covid-19-variant-2021-11-29/…
2:32 PM · Nov 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
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Dan Smith

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Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
·
15m
Replying to [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
I’d like to add onto Portugal that older staff (NOT just younger players) have been infected as well. “Two or three players and two or three staff have symptoms, but nothing too serious, the rest are asymptomatic.” This is why vaccination is important.

Interesting stuff. Really fascinating to see how this develops - the mildness of symptoms (or even asymptomatic) aligns with what the SA Doc said - in vaccinated people Omicron isn't causing serious illness so far. Early days and it could be horrible (as reported initially), but equally could be the biggest evolution yet of Covid to a manageable illness that doesn't require medical intervention in the vast majority, and where the increased transmissability quickly builds population immunity.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Interesting stuff. Really fascinating to see how this develops - the mildness of symptoms (or even asymptomatic) aligns with what the SA Doc said - in vaccinated people Omicron isn't causing serious illness so far. Early days and it could be horrible (as reported initially), but equally could be the biggest evolution yet of Covid to a manageable illness that doesn't require medical intervention in the vast majority, and where the increased transmissability quickly builds population immunity.

Think the take away from everything is still get vaccinate.

I only caught a slight bit of the press conference, but they seem to suggest the vaccine should still work in stopping major illness and death.

 

[dazzer6666]

Think the take away from everything is still get vaccinate.

I only caught a slight bit of the press conference, but they seem to suggest the vaccine should still work in stopping major illness and death.

Definitely........

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Definitely........

Apparently only 5 million haven’t had a single jab.

Would bringing out a vaccine passport that affects just those people be the end of the world?

 

[carlzeiss]

Apparently only 5 million haven’t had a single jab.

Would bringing out a vaccine passport that affects just those people be the end of the world?

Wouldn't door to door forced vaccinations be more effective ?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Wouldn't door to door forced vaccinations be more effective ?

No ones forcing you

 

[dazzer6666]

Apparently only 5 million haven’t had a single jab.

Would bringing out a vaccine passport that affects just those people be the end of the world?

Some of the 5m would act like it was……..

 

[loz]

Update Latest vs 7 days ago

1st Dose:
% of 12+ [88.6%] vs [88.3%]

2nd Dose:
% of 12+ [80.6%] vs [80.3%]

3rd Dose:
Daily [+285,335] vs [+237,995]
% of 12+ [31.1%] vs [26.7%]

Cases: +42,583 vs +44,917
Deaths: +35 vs +45

Patients in Hospital 7,530 vs 8,058

 

[crodonilson]

Top UK health officials urges cancelling Christmas/Winter parties

I know this is not what people want to hear but I think this is absolutely the right approach, we should all now be doing our bit to stay in our household bubbles and restricting contacts as much as possible (and social distancing when we do come into contact with others). All of this can limit the spread of the new variant until we understand how this will impact us.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Top UK health officials urges cancelling Christmas/Winter parties

I know this is not what people want to hear but I think this is absolutely the right approach, we should all now be doing our bit to stay in our household bubbles and restricting contacts as much as possible (and social distancing when we do come into contact with others). All of this can limit the spread of the new variant until we understand how this will impact us.

The naked Twister with jelly evening arranged with Polly & Giles is off then?

 

[n1 gull]

Top UK health officials urges cancelling Christmas/Winter parties

I know this is not what people want to hear but I think this is absolutely the right approach, we should all now be doing our bit to stay in our household bubbles and restricting contacts as much as possible (and social distancing when we do come into contact with others). All of this can limit the spread of the new variant until we understand how this will impact us.

FFS utterly relentless

 

[beorhthelm]

data out of South Africa shows some increase in cases (from a low base - lower than the UK). it also shows a significant rise in testing. the rise in testing is far greater than the case rise.

we also still dont hear anyone in position of knowledge panic about the vaccine. they know if the vaccines would be affected by a gene change, while they are careful not to say something ahead of testing, if they know its going to be negative they would say so by now.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Top UK health officials urges cancelling Christmas/Winter parties

I know this is not what people want to hear but I think this is absolutely the right approach, we should all now be doing our bit to stay in our household bubbles and restricting contacts as much as possible (and social distancing when we do come into contact with others). All of this can limit the spread of the new variant until we understand how this will impact us.

We're into territory of "if you stop at home for the rest of your life, your life will be longer". (Or perhaps it will just seem longer.) There is a letter in today's Daily Telegraph from a man saying he is in his mid-seventies, he hasn't got that long left and he has wasted enough time already. There is no point passing up Christmas holidays for a nebulous risk, just so that eventually there will be a Christmas holiday with no risk - because when that time comes, you may be already dead, or else so far down old age's highway that you can't get there or you can't remember who anyone is or what you are doing.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

data out of South Africa shows some increase in cases (from a low base - lower than the UK). it also shows a significant rise in testing. the rise in testing is far greater than the case rise.

we also still dont hear anyone in position of knowledge panic about the vaccine. they know if the vaccines would be affected by a gene change, while they are careful not to say something ahead of testing, if they know its going to be negative they would say so by now.

Seems it’s be there 6-8 weeks as well.

Be good to know the break down of cases by variant and vax/unvax

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

South African Health bod says this:

Director of CERI: Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation,


I will not accept charted planes with reagents as the Travel ban is so damaging to our economy. There are more effective ways to avoid introductions of variants (such as pre-and post- arrival tests, vaccinations, self- or forced- isolation) than blanked travel bans...
Quote Tweet

Tulio de Oliveira
@Tuliodna
· 16h
Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban!