Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

observation, there is a hypothesis that the new variant developed in a immunosuppressed person over time, it follows that it must be mild as allowed them to survive.

 

[Bozza]

A good thread that explains that Omicron is likely swirling around a fair bit already...

(And quite interesting to understand more about testing/sequencing etc)

[tweet]1466204363110633476[/tweet]

 

[The Clamp]

The Covid virus was designed in a lab to mutate. It will be with us forever. However, there are certain organisations and individuals who benefit greatly from all this scare-mongering.

Get vaccinated and carry on as normal albeit with masks. Common sense innit.

Wisely, most of Europe is imposing restrictions on the fools who don’t think they need to vaccinate. Johnson has stated that he absolutely will not do that. So expect it to happen in the next couple of months.

You can probably expect a lockdown in the NY too. Just to keep the gravy train running.

 

[crodonilson]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064

Some really concerning data beginning to emerge from S.A about Omicron.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Vaccines offer protection against severe disease from omicron - latest data
The omicron variant appears able to get around some immunity but vaccines should still offer protection against severe disease, according to the latest data from South Africa where it is fast overtaking delta to become the dominant variant.

The new variant has been detected in five out of nine South African provinces and was likely to be present all over the country, the latest official report showed on Wednesday.

The daily number of reported cases doubled to 8,561. It was not known how many of those were omicron as not all test samples are subject to genomic sequencing, but an official presentation said omicron was "rapidly becoming the dominant variant".

Cases are rising eight times quicker in South Africa compared to the initial phase of the previous two waves. While many factors are at play, this could be further indication that the Omicron variant is far more transmissible

Omicron accounted for 74 per cent of the 249 virus genomes sequenced in South Africa in November, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), which is collecting data as part of a wider national network for genomic surveillance.

"(The) mutation profile and epidemiological picture suggests omicron is able to get around some of our immune protection (to cause infection) but the protection against severe disease and death from vaccines should be less affected," the latest report from the surveillance network said

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The Covid virus was designed in a lab to mutate. It will be with us forever. However, there are certain organisations and individuals who benefit greatly from all this scare-mongering.

Get vaccinated and carry on as normal albeit with masks. Common sense innit.

Wisely, most of Europe is imposing restrictions on the fools who don’t think they need to vaccinate. Johnson has stated that he absolutely will not do that. So expect it to happen in the next couple of months.

You can probably expect a lockdown in the NY too. Just to keep the gravy train running.

Really is time to roll out the vaccine passports if as it seems its around 90% of people unvaccinated being sent to hospital
You cant force people to have it, the EU claiming mandatory vaccine is too far.

 

[The Clamp]

Really is time to roll out the vaccine passports if as it seems its around 90% of people unvaccinated being sent to hospital
You cant force people to have it, the EU claiming mandatory vaccine is too far.

Exactly. There was some numpty on here a few weeks ago arguing he didn’t need a vaccine at all because he was super-immune. Happy to let everyone else get it to keep him safe though.

These are the sort of people, that if I was a dick, I’d hope end up in hospital. But that’s more work for the NHS staff who are risking their lives for morons like this.

Ban the unvaccinated from public life. They’d soon be at Churchill Sq, begging for the jab. Idiots.

 

[crodonilson]

V

Cases are rising eight times quicker in South Africa compared to the initial phase of the previous two waves. While many factors are at play, this could be further indication that the Omicron variant is far more transmissible

That really is quite something given how much the delta variant spread in S.A meaning there should be plenty of natural immunity plus 25% of the population are vaccinated. An eight fold increase on cases does not bode well at all for the rest of the world even with well vaccinated populations.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emerging-picture-from-south-africa-suggests-omicron-variant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064

Some really concerning data beginning to emerge from S.A about Omicron.

Every one of these stories needs to add a caveat.

Vaccine levels in SA are very low compared to Europe. What happens over there is not an indicator of what will happen here.

 

[crodonilson]

Every one of these stories needs to add a caveat.

Vaccine levels in SA are very low compared to Europe. What happens over there is not an indicator of what will happen here.

You're right, and also conversely the average age of the population is some 14 years lower than the UK so data on hospitalisations in a younger population may not be the same as what happens. We need to let the scientists do their thing to understand this variant and recommend what if anything we need to do in order to protect ourselves and our health systems against it. In the meantime it's right that we should be cautious, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

You're right, and also conversely the average age of the population is some 14 years lower than the UK so data on hospitalisations in a younger population may not be the same as what happens. We need to let the scientists do their thing to understand this variant and recommend what if anything we need to do in order to protect ourselves and our health systems against it. In the meantime it's right that we should be cautious, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

The average age of the population is lower in South Africa because life expectancy is a lot lower there than here. That is in part down to our health care being so much better, which in turn means our population are likely to be healthier than someone of the same age in SA.

There are far too many differences between South Africa and here to look at what is happening there and panic because it is going to happen here. There is no guarantees, we've been testing at much higher rates and Delta variant is still very established here so is Omicron going to struggle against high levels of a previous strain? We also don't know how many cases of Omicron found here are linked to SA travel and how many are community transmission. We have a lot higher levels of vaccinations and the booster program currently being up scaled, what effect will that have? Does Omicrons seemingly increased transmission rates lead to an explosion in hospitalisations or deaths? Or is the illness caused still mild? These are all huge unknowns at the moment.

It is sensible to keep an eye on what is happening in South Africa and react with some caution but it's a few weeks until we know what is going to happen here. No need to panic and stock up on loo roll and mince pies just yet.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
Epidemiological data from South Africa shows a 3-fold increase in risk for reinfection due to Omicron vs. Beta and Delta. These findings provide epidemiological evidence for Omicron’s ability to evade immunity from prior infection.

GET VACCINATED.

https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2
5:59 PM · Dec 2, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
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Replying to [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout

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Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringeSoon with rightwards arrow above MFF [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
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Replying to [MENTION=27507]sailor[/MENTION]rooscout
NOTE: This is from PREVIOUS INFECTION, NOT VACCINE INDUCED IMMUNITY. Vaccinated individuals are significantly better protected from illness, hospitalization, AND death due to COVID-19 compared to unvaccinated individuals in regards to other variants and we will likely see this

 

[crodonilson]

55,000 cases today, highest since Mid July. Feels like the next wave has begun.

 

[Weststander]

55,000 cases today, highest since Mid July. Feels like the next wave has begun.

Not according to Prof Neil Ferguson on BBC2 Newsnight a few minutes. In a lengthy interview, worth finding on catch up TV.

He explained that the numbers simply aren’t then translating into a wave of THE key metrics in the UK, that this is entirely different scenario to the previous waves. Presumably down to vaccines including almost 20m who’ve had the booster.

He said it’ll be 2 or 3 weeks before we’ll know whether stronger restrictions are actually needed for Omicron.

 

[Swansman]

Anders Tegnell, the Swedish epidemiologist, said when Omicron was discovered that once a mutation starts spreading between countries, it is impossible to stop it from eventually reaching wherever you are. Plenty of people got angry with his "defeatist" attitude but it is probably the reality of it. There will most likely be more mutations and I dont think we should panic whenever it is the case. From my understanding it is highly unlikely it is going to mutate into something with a higher mortality rate.

Waiting a few weeks to see what it really is rather than rapidly enforcing mass-restrictions is the way to go.

The Covid virus was designed in a lab to mutate.

Are we hat-bros now? : )

 

[dsr-burnley]

55,000 cases today, highest since Mid July. Feels like the next wave has begun.

Don't you think you need to change your tagline? There is no point talking about taking this next step safely, when every time you post it's clear that you don't think we should be taking this next step at all - unless you mean a step backwards. You're perfectly entitled to your view, but there's no need to misrepresent it on every post.

Interestingly, the number of cases is 10% higher than the same day last week, and the number of tests is 10% higher than the same day last week. I wonder if there's a causative link?

 

[Bozza]

Don't you think you need to change your tagline? There is no point talking about taking this next step safely, when every time you post it's clear that you don't think we should be taking this next step at all - unless you mean a step backwards. You're perfectly entitled to your view, but there's no need to misrepresent it on every post.

Interestingly, the number of cases is 10% higher than the same day last week, and the number of tests is 10% higher than the same day last week. I wonder if there's a causative link?

Sure there is: more people had reason to test (I think I may be infected) and more of them were.

Or are you suggesting that the number of infections was actually the same but, for no apparent reason, more people decided to test this week?

 

[Bozza]

This isn't a nice looking graph...

[tweet]1466456673409773571[/tweet]

 

[dsr-burnley]

Sure there is: more people had reason to test (I think I may be infected) and more of them were.

Or are you suggesting that the number of infections was actually the same but, for no apparent reason, more people decided to test this week?

We don't know whether the test numbers have gone up because more people feel ill, or because more asymptomatic people are being tested.

But there is a very apparent reason why more people might have decided to test this week. There is a new variant called omicron and the government has changed its rules on testing. More testing for holidays, more stringent isolation rules, new rules for schools. It's very likely that more asymptomatic testing will have happened as a result.

 

[Bozza]

We don't know whether the test numbers have gone up because more people feel ill, or because more asymptomatic people are being tested.

But there is a very apparent reason why more people might have decided to test this week. There is a new variant called omicron and the government has changed its rules on testing. More testing for holidays, more stringent isolation rules, new rules for schools. It's very likely that more asymptomatic testing will have happened as a result.

So we don't know but you're strongly implying the reason. Gotcha. Can't compete with that logic.