https://www.cityam.com/rishi-sunak-set-to-extend-furlough-scheme-past-april/
Furlough to be extended.
Furlough to be extended.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
crodonilson
He/Him
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55736239
Deeply concerning from Imperial College London that the current lockdown is not having the affect of getting the R rate beyond 1 and we can expect to see an increase in cases again very soon, putting massive further pressure on the NHS. The government really needs to act now and ensure extra enforcement of the current measures and indeed a tougher, longer lockdown to try and start seeing infections decline. Talk of emerging from lockdown in mid Feb or even March is beginning to look like pie in the sky.
Deeply concerning from Imperial College London that the current lockdown is not having the affect of getting the R rate beyond 1 and we can expect to see an increase in cases again very soon, putting massive further pressure on the NHS. The government really needs to act now and ensure extra enforcement of the current measures and indeed a tougher, longer lockdown to try and start seeing infections decline. Talk of emerging from lockdown in mid Feb or even March is beginning to look like pie in the sky.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Indeed.
I think we need to wait for the clocks to change to BST before things start to relax a bit.
In the meantime they need to look at the 40% school "lockdown" attendance and get it down to nearer the 10% of Lockdown 1.
Extra school in the summer to compensate.
crodonilson
He/Him
This suggests lockdown and restrictions on hospitality, retail and leisure will be in place well into Summer. I think it is coming home to roost the vaccine will not be the magic bullet and we will still need to keep other measures in place alongside vaccination for the forseeble future.
Furlough wont save these businesses, so its getting to the point for some its actually pointless.
Imperial is the only source saying this, I agree we wont be out anytime soon - but I am not sure too much can be looked into this alone.
crodonilson
He/Him
Agreed for many pubs and restaurants this will probably be the final nail in the coffin, not being able to open until summer and then only with severe covid restrictions and limited capacities.
Furlough wasn't designed to save businesses (certainly after it became clear this wasn't just going to go away in June last year), it's about keeping people with money coming in to prevent sudden, mass unemployment and likely civil unrest.
There is if you view it in terms of a Government looking to kick it's problems down the road that little bit further (something they have consistently done with almost everything else for the last few years)
The Fits
Well-known member
- Jun 29, 2020
- 10,106
This React study is very interesting. Suggests the spike was as a result of people going back to work and back to school after Christmas, not Christmas itself. Highest levels of TRANSMISSION week 6-15th July.
Going to be a critical few weeks as it's looks like lockdown might not be working this time.
Going to be a critical few weeks as it's looks like lockdown might not be working this time.
Genuinely not sure how you can look at the falling case numbers and assume lockdown isn't working
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,026
Well we were told by my company that we would work and attend site visits as normal with all covid protocols in place. And I have noticed nearly if not all manufacturing is back up and running with many offices also filling up. I am not saying its a bad thing I just get the impression, that silently people have made their own decisions and gone back to work, not only to help save their companies but in a lot of cases for their own sanity.
When you say "This " lockdown might not be working I get the impression that the other 2 or 3 lockdowns didn't really help in the long run.
I was working in Guildford Uni last March just when this was starting and in the Lab I was working in a young undergrad and I were talking about the upcoming lockdown, he said something that is starting to make sence ( although I do get the flattening the curve bit) "Imagine a 100 gallon tank and the virus is a hole, you can put your finger over the hole causing the water to drip out off the hole until the tank empties, or just let the water pour out of the hole but that might flood, but the 100 gallon tank will empty which ever way you chose its just a matter of time".
Mind you the vaccine makes that redundant luckily
Boris Johnson has declined to say whether the national lockdown will be over by summer, as he warned the new Covid variant was spreading "very fast indeed".
On a visit to North West England, where Storm Christoph has caused flooding, Mr Johnson was asked whether restrictions would be eased by the summer.
He said: "I think it's too early to say when we'll be able to lift some of the restrictions.
"We'll look then (February 15) at how we're doing but I think what we're seeing in the ONS data, in the React survey, we're seeing the contagiousness of the new variant that we saw arrive just before Christmas - there's no doubt it does spread very fast indeed.
"It's not more deadly but it is much more contagious and the numbers are very great."
He said it is "absolutely crucial" to obey the current restrictions "in what is unquestionably going to be a tough few weeks ahead".
Later, the Prime Minister's official spokesman refused to rule out a lockdown that extends to the summer.
"We will continue to keep all of the scientific evidence and data under review," he said.
"It remains our position that we want to ease restrictions as soon as it is safe to do so, but in order for us to do that we need to see the transmission rates of the virus come down and we need to see the pressure on the NHS reduce."
Analysis from the UEA found the highly-virulent B.1.1.7 strain which evolved in Kent has made it impossible to ever achieve herd immunity with the current effectiveness of vaccines. The researcher say that even if every person in the UK, including children, gets the Oxford jab, this would only be enough to bring the R rate down to 1.325 when all restrictions are lifted. However, the Oxford vaccine is only approved for over-18s and if all adults - 79 per cent of the UK - got this vaccine, the R rate would be 1.98, they add. Pfizer's jab is approved for everyone over 16 - 81 per cent of the UK
On a visit to North West England, where Storm Christoph has caused flooding, Mr Johnson was asked whether restrictions would be eased by the summer.
He said: "I think it's too early to say when we'll be able to lift some of the restrictions.
"We'll look then (February 15) at how we're doing but I think what we're seeing in the ONS data, in the React survey, we're seeing the contagiousness of the new variant that we saw arrive just before Christmas - there's no doubt it does spread very fast indeed.
"It's not more deadly but it is much more contagious and the numbers are very great."
He said it is "absolutely crucial" to obey the current restrictions "in what is unquestionably going to be a tough few weeks ahead".
Later, the Prime Minister's official spokesman refused to rule out a lockdown that extends to the summer.
"We will continue to keep all of the scientific evidence and data under review," he said.
"It remains our position that we want to ease restrictions as soon as it is safe to do so, but in order for us to do that we need to see the transmission rates of the virus come down and we need to see the pressure on the NHS reduce."
Analysis from the UEA found the highly-virulent B.1.1.7 strain which evolved in Kent has made it impossible to ever achieve herd immunity with the current effectiveness of vaccines. The researcher say that even if every person in the UK, including children, gets the Oxford jab, this would only be enough to bring the R rate down to 1.325 when all restrictions are lifted. However, the Oxford vaccine is only approved for over-18s and if all adults - 79 per cent of the UK - got this vaccine, the R rate would be 1.98, they add. Pfizer's jab is approved for everyone over 16 - 81 per cent of the UK
That last paragraph is confusing. That seems to assume nobody fights off the virus with T- Cell repsonse, antibodies from previous infection?
Have you got a link to this?
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,026
that sounds extremely unlike anything else read on the variant. its also not representative of herd immunity, unless they are claiming is a new major strain (which it isnt).
ah wait, its from the Daily Mail.
that sounds extremely unlike anything else read on the variant. its also not representative of herd immunity, unless they are claiming is a new major strain (which it isnt).
ah wait, its from the Daily Mail.
Telegraph
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,634
I wonder if the author is aware that if 1,000 people have the virus and they infect 2 people each in a fortnight, then at the end of 32 weeks everyone in the country has the virus; at the end of 34 weeks, everyone has it twice over, and by the end of the year, we would each be catching the virus 75 times per day.
I wonder also if he would get the same result if he allowed that R numbers change over time, and that catching the disease is a way to gain immunity, and that childrens' R numbers are not the same as adults?