Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Poojah]

Just watching the latest press conference. Nick Hancock saying 1 in 3 people get no symptoms whatsoever. Yes, I get you can still pass it on to the vulnerable, but surely thats the same with all other cold/flu viruses.
I still think the hype of this is a bit over played, and the scary death tolls each day should be measured with how many people are expected to die without a covid positive test result within 28 days.

I'm not sure where you've been for the last nine months, but the fundamental issue is that Covid-19 has a case fatality rate of around 1.5%, and is significantly more transmissible than other cold / fly viruses. By contrast, the typical fatality rate of your average seasonal flu is around 0.1%, so in effect it's about 15x more deadly and easier to contract.

In terms of hype, the best way to measure the real impact versus how many people are expected to die anyway is by looking at 'excess deaths', ergo the number of deaths over and above that which would be expected in a normal year (heh, remember those?). This is what that looks like:



In April and May, when things were at their worst, almost twice as people were dying than normal. Keep in mind that the only reason this didn't get much, much worse was because of the incredible restrictions placed on society in order to quell transmission.

These are the reasons that Covid is such a serious problem. The world doesn't voluntarily commit economic suicide for 'hype'.

 

[dazzer6666]

Just watching the latest press conference. Nick Hancock saying 1 in 3 people get no symptoms whatsoever. Yes, I get you can still pass it on to the vulnerable, but surely thats the same with all other cold/flu viruses.
I still think the hype of this is a bit over played, and the scary death tolls each day should be measured with how many people are expected to die without a covid positive test result within 28 days.

Hastings Conquest and Eastbourne DGH ceasing all surgery from Monday due to covid cases

And there, in consecutive posts, you have it. Until people stop being killed or hospitalised by this thing, wear a mask, keep out of shops, pubs and anywhere else you might end up breathing in someone’s germs.

We’re almost there....another couple of months of restraint to allow the most vulnerable to be protected and we can start to gradually return to normality.

 

[Poojah]

And there, in consecutive posts, you have it. Until people stop being killed or hospitalised by this thing, wear a mask, keep out of shops, pubs and anywhere else you might end up breathing in someone’s germs.

We’re almost there....another couple of months of restraint to allow the most vulnerable to be protected and we can start to gradually return to normality.

Exactly this - another 2 or 3 months and we should be over the line. We've already done 9, and many of those were really tough.

If this were a marathon, we'd have already run 20 miles. Yes, we're all tired, but there's really not that far to go.

 

[dazzer6666]

Exactly this - another 2 or 3 months and we should be over the line. We've already done 9, and many of those were really tough.

If this were a marathon, we'd have already run 20 miles. Yes, we're all tired, but there's really not that far to go.

Haha, that is just about the WORST analogy you could have come up with. Anyone who has run a marathon knows 20m is the real half way [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] We are in a MUCH better place than that [emoji106]

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Just watching the latest press conference. Nick Hancock saying 1 in 3 people get no symptoms whatsoever. Yes, I get you can still pass it on to the vulnerable, but surely thats the same with all other cold/flu viruses.
I still think the hype of this is a bit over played, and the scary death tolls each day should be measured with how many people are expected to die without a covid positive test result within 28 days.

Look up excess deaths. This is current deaths less how many would typically die in normal circumstances. It’s a good measure as it estimates the full impact of Covid both directly and indirectly.

 

[Rugrat]

Exactly this - another 2 or 3 months and we should be over the line. We've already done 9, and many of those were really tough.

If this were a marathon, we'd have already run 20 miles. Yes, we're all tired, but there's really not that far to go.

Unfortunately the minority that stick two fingers up will continue. There's only one way out of this and I fear it's going to have a nasty stating in the tail. And all those responsible will still be in total denial. Sigh

 

[Poojah]

Haha, that is just about the WORST analogy you could have come up with. Anyone who has run a marathon knows 20m is the real half way [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] We are in a MUCH better place than that [emoji106]

Ah, my marathon virginity shone right through there it seems. I've got it down on the bucket list. Way, way down on the bucket list...

 

[dazzer6666]

Ah, my marathon virginity shone right through there it seems. I've got it down on the bucket list. Way, way down on the bucket list...

Not for this thread but happy to advise [emoji106][emoji16]

 

[dangull]

I'm not sure where you've been for the last nine months, but the fundamental issue is that Covid-19 has a case fatality rate of around 1.5%, and is significantly more transmissible than other cold / fly viruses. By contrast, the typical fatality rate of your average seasonal flu is around 0.1%, so in effect it's about 15x more deadly and easier to contract.

In terms of hype, the best way to measure the real impact versus how many people are expected to die anyway is by looking at 'excess deaths', ergo the number of deaths over and above that which would be expected in a normal year (heh, remember those?). This is what that looks like:

View attachment 131291

In April and May, when things were at their worst, almost twice as people were dying than normal. Keep in mind that the only reason this didn't get much, much worse was because of the incredible restrictions placed on society in order to quell transmission.

These are the reasons that Covid is such a serious problem. The world doesn't voluntarily commit economic suicide for 'hype'.

I get that. But the 2nd wave difference to total death rates is probably not going to be worth it when the long term consequences of the economy come into play, some years from now.

 

[Poojah]

I get that. But the 2nd wave difference to total death rates is probably not going to be worth it when the long term consequences of the economy come into play, some years from now.

Depends a bit though, dunnit. Not withstanding the fact that one of the major reasons for restrictions is to keep the NHS ticking over, I imagine most people would feel differently in hindsight if one of the lambs sacrificed to economic prosperity happened to include a loved one.

I'm not having a go as I think we're all slightly numb to numbers in the headlines by now, but it's easy to forget that behind every death figure was a real person, and many of them 'before their time'.

 

[dazzer6666]

Depends a bit though, dunnit. Not withstanding the fact that one of the major reasons for restrictions is to keep the NHS ticking over, I imagine most people would feel differently in hindsight if one of the lambs sacrificed to economic prosperity happened to include a loved one.

I'm not having a go as I think we're all slightly numb to numbers in the headlines by now, but it's easy to forget that behind every death figure was a real person, and many of them 'before their time'.

Not so much ‘ticking over’, more ‘not being swamped’.....

Vaccinating the vulnerable should make this so much easier, but there hasn’t been much choice up till now. Just look back at the scenes in Italy in their hospitals in the early Spring.

 

[Motogull]

From sky news:

Germany is to be plunged into a national lockdown over Christmas amid rising cases of coronavirus.

Under new measures which will last from 16 December until 10 January, schools and non-essential shops across the country will be closed.

Bars and restaurants will remain shut, while the sale of fireworks will be banned ahead of New Year's Eve.

Can we please copy that very last bit?

 

[beorhthelm]

Within a week of our lockdown ending, infections were back to 90% of the level they were at in the week before lockdown.

So we gave up a month of our economy for that. Nice one, Johnson.

er so you dont reckon without lockdown it would be higher level?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Had to have a chuckle over this

https://twitter.com/anshul__k/status/1338275314053550086?s=21

 

[atomised]

I was torn between good news thread and here. Heard Dr Hilary on GMB this morning talking about how the 3 household rule would mean in the majority of cases 24 people coming together in close quarters for 5 days. What sort of households does he know if the majority contain 8 people

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

London- if they need to shut the schools then surely they have to do Tier 3 now. Can't keep the pubs open and shut the schools I wouldn't have thought- Gov said they would prioritise schools staying open over everything else?

Tier 2 restrictions clearly unenforceable in pubs and restaurants- it is entirely reliant on whether people actually want to follow the rules or not. Those who don't- are out with their mates on the lash!

 

[Bold Seagull]

No wonder it's spreading like wild fire.

My mate is in Hastings, he got tested last Wednesday morning at 08.00 as he had a metallic taste in his mouth the previous day. Still no result!

He's phoned and they say they don't class a test result late until 5 days. However they don't count it as started from the day of the test, it's the day after.

Put it this way, he could have had contacts over the previous weekend and the Monday, and as contacts if he does eventually get the result today, they'll have 2 days remaining of 10 days self isolation. In the meantime all the contacts that could have been contacted to prevent spread, it will be too late!!

What is the point of a testing system that takes 5 days to get a result!? It's pretty much rendering it ineffective.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

My daughter got tested at 12:30 yesterday and we had the email and text of the negative result by 6pm on the same day.

Maybe the lab isn't busy on a Sunday afternoon.