Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

Surely that can’t be true? Life expectancy is going up all the time so why would somebody who is already 80+ today be expecting to hit 91 when a newborn is only going to make 81?

Of course it's right. Well, it's right that not everyone who is 82 today is about to drop dead imminently.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to explain it to someone who lacks both the logical reasoning and mathematical ability to go "Ah yes, of course!", so I googled https://www.google.com/search?clien...ncy+longer+when+they're+old&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

I got this page: https://www.verywellhealth.com/understanding-life-expectancy-2223950 - it may help.

 

[Bozza]

I am sure someone can explain better, but it’s because it’s based on averages... for everyone that makes 100 someone dies at birth, so the average age comes down, but having already exceeded the average age there then comes into play a new average, that of people who exceed the average - I think!

Exactly that. The sad death of a newborn "lends" 81 years into the mathematical equation to others.

By the time you've reached your 80s you've got by many of life's risks. Some will die tomorrow, and some will live to be 103.

 

[Bozza]

Your weekly reminder that shielding the vulnerable would involve 12 million people and although the virus isn’t going to disappear there is a very good chance vaccines are on the way that would as a minimum keep it in check.

Indeed.

In the US, Fauci has stated the vulnerable to be 30% so if we "only" have 12m, we're well below them, based on respective population sizes. Even so, "Team Lock Up The Vulnerable and Live With It" don't have answers for many obvious questions that come from their ridiculous suggestion:

1. Denying 12m people from undertaking most of their economic activity will give a massive hit to the economy they are so keen to protect.
2. Many of those 12m people live under the same roof as those who will be permitted to "get back to living". Just how protected are they?
3. Presumably these mental health concerns melt away if you're able to go to the pub and football, and those 12m people won't suffer in any way.

There's lots more, but I'm running out of patience.

 

[Bozza]

Fair enough, I see your logic, but isn’t it a bit like me getting a group of 100 year olds together and claiming life expectancy is now 105?

Close. It's 102.

Averages have to be the fairest way of looking at this and the fact is Covid victims on average have already exceeded life expectancy.

Averages are fair if they suit your twisted logic, but you can wave them away if they don't suit it. Nice.

Seems you trust the ONS, so knock yourself out: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.../articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

 

[Yoda]

Of course it's right. Well, it's right that not everyone who is 82 today is about to drop dead imminently.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to explain it to someone who lacks both the logical reasoning and mathematical ability to go "Ah yes, of course!", so I googled https://www.google.com/search?clien...ncy+longer+when+they're+old&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

I got this page: https://www.verywellhealth.com/understanding-life-expectancy-2223950 - it may help.

Yes, but the life expectancy of those born in the 1930's, as someone in their 80's would be, was 58 for men & 62 for women. https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1...hUKEwiVgO_jzMbsAhUzUhUIHet6DAgQ4dUDCA0&uact=5

Life expectancy continued to soar despite World War II, rationing and 1940s and 1950s austerity. By 1951, 20 years later, women lived to 72 and men to 66. It rose by more than a year every three years at this time, despite World War II, rationing and 1940s and 1950s austerity. https://theconversation.com/life-ex...ntinued to soar,and 1940s and 1950s austerity.

 

[Bozza]

Yes, but the life expectancy of those born in the 1930's, as someone in their 80's would be, was 58 for men & 62 for women. https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1...hUKEwiVgO_jzMbsAhUzUhUIHet6DAgQ4dUDCA0&uact=5

Life expectancy continued to soar despite World War II, rationing and 1940s and 1950s austerity. By 1951, 20 years later, women lived to 72 and men to 66. It rose by more than a year every three years at this time, despite World War II, rationing and 1940s and 1950s austerity. https://theconversation.com/life-ex...ntinued to soar,and 1940s and 1950s austerity.

It's irrelevant. If you are 82 today, on average you will live to 91 (women) and 90 (men). You can check out the ONS link I posted above and delve as deep into their methodology as you see fit. I can assure you the ONS boys and girls know a lot more about statistics than you. And me.

 

[darkwolf666]

I care about elderly people who are living the final years of their life without being able to see their families. I care about children missing out on months of their education. I care about hard working people whose businesses are going up in smoke. I care about former colleagues who have been unemployed for six months through no fault of their own. I care about people missing out on crucial medical attention. I care about lonely and vulnerable people whose mental health has been through a torturous period. I care about my 18 month old daughter who is growing up without some of the normal social integrations that are part of childhood. I care about everyone under the age of 30 who will spend their lives paying for this disaster.

Is it just those people you don’t like?

Thanks for your clarity on the people you value and care about, much appreciated. Sadly, it appears people like my wife aren't on your Christmas card list.

 

[darkwolf666]

I am quite surprised that no one has brought this idea up, it would solve a lot of problems, once you get past your useful age, off to Carousel for you...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wjXpTDuHiE

 

[Yoda]

My wife is 59 and due to her chemotherapy is extremely vulnerable to Covid. She has a 50% chance of surviving more than 10 years from her cancer - does she deserve to die in your brave new survival of the fittest, they were going to die anyway world? Or is it just old vulnerable people you don’t like?

I hope she wins her battle through all of this. My mother (63) was mid way through her chemo when covid hit. The forth time she's had to go through all of this. Luckily, Worthing Hospitals Breast Care and Cancer unit is a completely separate building to the rest of the Hospital so they continued her treatment. After her most recent scans following the end of her treatment, the tumours have stopped growing & she soon starts her radiotherapy. She's had to go through all of this shielding on her own as my father died nearly 10 years ago and she lives on her own. All we could do during the first half of the lockdown was visit from a-far (she would stand in the porch and we'd be at the front gate) and drop shopping off.

Since her chemo ended, we've at least been able to go in, but we still keep our distance as best we can, and she cleans any surface we may have touched after we leave.

 

[darkwolf666]

double post - sorry

 

[darkwolf666]

I hope she wins her battle through all of this. My mother (63) was mid way through her chemo when covid hit. The forth time she's had to go through all of this. Luckily, Worthing Hospitals Breast Care and Cancer unit is a completely separate building to the rest of the Hospital so they continued her treatment. After her most recent scans following the end of her treatment, the tumours have stopped growing & she soon starts her radiotherapy. She's had to go through all of this shielding on her own as my father died nearly 10 years ago and she lives on her own. All we could do during the first half of the lockdown was visit from a-far (she would stand in the porch and we'd be at the front gate) and drop shopping off.

Since her chemo ended, we've at least been able to go in, but we still keep our distance as best we can, and she cleans any surface we may have touched after we leave.

It's ****ing hard isn't it to see your loved ones going through cancer treatment, then have the double whammy of Covid throw a massive spanner in the works. Having completed her first 6 sessions of chemotherapy my wife was given the all clear - on the understanding that her cancer WILL come back at some point in the future. However, it now seems to some, that as a vulnerable person she is dispensable, for the greater good!

I fully understand, and endorse the need for people to get back to normal, whatever that is, but I am so so shocked by the lack of empathy for people that are vulnerable, of whatever age!

I hope you Mum continues to stay well - look after her!

 

[darkwolf666]

Well it appears the millions of people I referenced aren’t on yours.

Lots of people have got a shit time of it right now. The only way to act is in the interests of as many of them as possible.

Fair enough.

I hope you don't mind me saying stay safe and keep well...

 

[Bozza]

Really sad news that a 28-year-old Brazilian doctor who was volunteering on the Oxford vaccine trial has died of Covid-19.

He was given the placebo and not the actual vaccine. You'd imagine if the coin toss had landed differently, he would have received the vaccine and still be alive today.

It's also a chastening reminder that no one has no risk from this virus.

 

[Bozza]

I’ll ignore all the patronising crap to make one point that you’re overlooking.

90.4% of people who die with Covid have at least one underlying medical condition. That is not factored into any calculator or life expectancy chart. You cannot seriously tell me 82 year olds with underlying health conditions have an average of another decade left to live.

You tell me. Go and do the research and report back - I've had enough of doing your homework for you.

 

[darkwolf666]

I’ll ignore all the patronising crap to make one point that you’re overlooking.

90.4% of people who die with Covid have at least one underlying medical condition. That is not factored into any calculator or life expectancy chart. You cannot seriously tell me 82 year olds with underlying health conditions have an average of another decade left to live.

Define underlying health condition.

Obesity
Diabetes
Alzheimer's
etc...

According to WHO statistics - yes, those damned statistics again - 20% of the world population have at least one underlying health condition.

 

[e77]

We can't rely on that possibility when we are already losing so much. Even if it was available tomorrow, we cannot afford more restrictions until it became effective enough to eradicate the coronavirus - would that be years, decades..? will it ever eradicate it?

We know enough about the virus to know with absolute certaintly that an overwhelming majority are safe. We need to protect those that are vulnerable, but we cannot waste anymore time on this. So much is at stake here, in addition to what already has been lost.

There is an 85% chance of a working vaccine coming out in the next few months. While it might not immunise everyone to start with - if for no other reason it needs to be given to everyone and that will take a while - that will change the equation.

If we don't get a working vaccine soon then perhaps time for a rethink but at the moment out makes sense to hold out.