Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Mellotron]

I very much fear that would be a tragic miscalculation.

I tend to agree with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] on most of this debate.

I really REALLY hope the T-cell immunity effect kicks in and we see a levelling off in cases sooner rather than later (a la Sweden). It may happen I think. But there is no certainty, and feels like a very big risk to rely on it happening, given the uncertain state of knowledge at the moment. I have zero doubt that the scientists are taking whatever evidence is available into account when weighing up their options and risk assessments.

The coronavirus symptom tracker app is now calculating 10,000+ new symptomatic cases every day. And they also say that is doubling every seven days (up until a few days ago). I tend to believe that data, more than any testing data at the moment. And those numbers WILL translate into some increase in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks and months.

Personally, I would be surprised (but of course very pleased) if we weren't seeing 50-100 deaths a day by mid-October. Maybe earlier. We are locked in to some extent. The younger age groups getting infected, and better treatments will help reduce the numbers of serious cases compared to number of infections, but not eliminate them. And we don't yet know what the colder weather will do. There is, I'm afraid, some evidence (from the symptom tracker team) that cold weather may increase the severity of the disease. I am sure Whitty and Vallance know that is a possibility and are factoring it in. And, as has been mentioned above, the risk is that by the time things are bad enough that people can SEE what is happening it will be too late.

We can act now, in a relatively moderate way, while we are only locked in to a 'manageable' level of problems, and try and rein things in while we sort out a proper test and tracing system (FFS) or we can roll the dice and hope to god that one set of scientists (that we all prefer to listen to, but that doesn't mean they are definitely right) are right.

IF we get to many 100's of deaths a day again (and yes, I agree, we may not), then it will iimpact on business, and on the wider heath care system, whether we do another 'hard' lockdown or not. Reducing our social contacts for a while is definitely a better option than taking that risk in my view, but it seems a lot of people would rather roll the dice...

I agree with all of that - none of it is in dispute with what I have said.

 

[birthofanorange]

I'm afraid the government spent £600m on eat out to help out because it was popular (it was probably acted on after results from a Tory focus group in some red wall seat). The reality was hospitality business was brisk in August with pretty much everyone holidaying at home, it wasn't really needed.

Now with cases soaring we need to restrict hospitality (especially indoors). Now is the time for financial help, using the money in Autumn to subside takeaways would have made better use of public funds.

They're not so much clutching at straws, more throwing them and seeing how they land. I'm not saying that it would be an easy task for whatever government was in power, but by God, this lot would take some beating in the '****ing it up' stakes.

 

[highflyer]

I agree with all of that - none of it is in dispute with what I have said.

Apart from the bit about trusting the UK public with complex information? I mean, lately they seem unable to absorb anything beyond a three word slogan...

 

[Is it PotG?]

Apart from the bit about trusting the UK public with complex information? I mean, lately they seem unable to absorb anything beyond a three word slogan...

Maybe try one, single word repeated three times?

I dunno, 'Education, Education, Education'?

 

[Weststander]

So after all the scaremongering of the last few days, the answer is to make pubs close at 10pm. Have I got that right? What a joke. One minute the world is about to end, the next asking drinkers to go home an hour earlier will do the job.

Scientists not in the government commitee, including Dr Chris Smith, have said in various radio interviews that this is a sensible move.

Their rationale is that all the evidence shows inhibitions and social distancing goes completely out of the window as drinking increases over an extended period.

When the BBC for example discuss this very point, they show stills or videos of packed pubs these last few weeks, with punters abandoning any sense of social distancing.

 

[Weststander]

Totally agree with you, I’m sure it is a good move.

What I find ridiculous is the mixed messages coming out of the government and the media. In the space of the last 72 hours we’ve heard of banning all households interacting, 50,000 cases a day and a two week lockdown, only to now find the action they’re going to take is simply asking pubs to close an hour early.

I think the scientists and public health officials, and ministers, are trying to jolt the populace into taking this seriously once more.

Clearly many people, across all age groups, aren’t. A friend told me about a huge gathering for ‘a party’ in a central London park, where a young guy made no secret that he’d just tested positive for CV19. He wasn’t lying, those who met him subsequently got CV19. He “didn‘t want to miss the fun”. At the time, the young folk there didn’t care, the Invincibility mindset of youth. People simply find it hard to fathom that you’re three or four connections away from passing it on to a vulnerable person.

In Catalonia and France they’ve found that the partying, boozing and nightclub scene was THE initial cause of their second waves.

I can’t see the millions off to uni this week sticking to the rules. Young hormones, freedom from parents!

So a scare tactic now. If nothing changes, then sadly back to far more restrictions on all 68 million of us.

I can only see this outcome.

 

[jabba]

Can somebody with better statistics nous break this down for me?

"Around 70,000 people in the UK are estimated to currently have the disease - and about 6,000 per day are catching it (based on an ONS study)"

If R-value (average passing on of virus) was 1 does this quote mean that there must be quite a few "super-spreaders" around if doubling in 7 days?

 

[Bozza]

There is no appetite for another lockdown or further restrictions. The sooner Boris realises it the better chance he has of salvaging his job.

The harsh reality of life is that most people think only of themselves and for the overwhelming majority of us Covid simply isn’t a big threat. Therefore people will not lockdown or change their way of life beyond all recognition to help 0.01% of the population. They’ve done it once and they won’t do it again. The sooner we learn to live with it the better everyone’s life will be, socially and economically. Just my opinion.

What a positively depressing and selfish picture of society you paint, presumably based on your own thoughts, behaviours and actions.

Thankfully, I believe "most people" are capable of a little bit more altruism than you seem to think.

 

[Albion Dan]

What on earth is this idiot on about? He can’t wait to see London locked back down.

 

[Bozza]

The sooner we learn to live with it the better everyone’s life will be, socially and economically. Just my opinion.

What the chuff do you think we were, indeed are, trying to do?

We're trying to find a ridiculously difficult balance that permits as much normality in the form of economic activity and social interaction to take place whilst keeping a lid on viral spread.

Health and the economy are inextricably linked, and around the world we broadly see a picture that shows that those who have successfully managed viral spread are fairing considerably better economically than those that haven't.

And having health services not bogged down in the complications of Covid-19 running wild are far better placed to return to BAU and ensure those with other conditions are treated in a timely fashion, improving the chances of those who require rapid healthcare provision.

 

[Weststander]

There is no appetite for another lockdown or further restrictions. The sooner Boris realises it the better chance he has of salvaging his job.

The harsh reality of life is that most people think only of themselves and for the overwhelming majority of us Covid simply isn’t a big threat. Therefore people will not lockdown or change their way of life beyond all recognition to help 0.01% of the population. They’ve done it once and they won’t do it again. The sooner we learn to live with it the better everyone’s life will be, socially and economically. Just my opinion.

All about balance.

Without social distancing and lockdown we’d have seen six figures in deaths in short time, with the mass piles of coffins witnessed in Madrid, Lombardy and NYC. Hospitals overwhelmed.

It wouldn’t have been the 0.0 recurring proportion. Behind crude stats, every premature death due to CV19 is potentially an avoidable loss of life, someone who deserves to live.

A balance of protecting those groupings, whilst not bankrupting countries and preventing the rest of us from enjoying life.

 

[clapham_gull]

The harsh reality of life is that most people think only of themselves...

Selfish people do tend to think that everyone else is selfish too.

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[e77]

There is no appetite for another lockdown or further restrictions. The sooner Boris realises it the better chance he has of salvaging his job.

The harsh reality of life is that most people think only of themselves and for the overwhelming majority of us Covid simply isn’t a big threat. Therefore people will not lockdown or change their way of life beyond all recognition to help 0.01% of the population. They’ve done it once and they won’t do it again. The sooner we learn to live with it the better everyone’s life will be, socially and economically. Just my opinion.

From my experience a vast majority of people are obeying the rules and doing their part in protecting their fellow citizens.

 

[e77]

What on earth is this idiot on about? He can’t wait to see London locked back down.

That quote is taken out of context but people can see from themselves here where he explains that problems with testing in London mean he doesn't have confidence in the figures:

[tweet]1308106345271439365[/tweet]

 

[Megazone]

From my experience a vast majority of people are obeying the rules and doing their part in protecting their fellow citizens.

You should've seen the Lanes today. North Laine was even worse. Trafalgar Street was ridiculous. I've never seen it more crammed. Are we still doing the social distancing or is it just masks now?

 

[clapham_gull]

Twitter gone mad over the point of shutting pubs an hour early, whilst ignoring on masse that table service will now be enforced by law.

Looks like a last chance for pubs (and people) to get their shit together before winter.

 

[e77]

You should've seen the Lanes today. North Laine was even worse. Trafalgar Street was ridiculous. I've never seen it more crammed. Are we still doing the social distancing or is it just masks now?

People do need to take some responsibility. If somewhere is busy then don't go there.