Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

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this funny quote really illustrates why people find things important. bog roll hoarding is immediate and personal, wealth hoarding is distant and incidental. as long as people have enough bog roll/wealth they dont really care some has lots more.

 

[Triggaaar]

Part of me thinks this is stupid you selfish barsteward, other part of me thinks this may be sensible! So hard to tell and no one really can say because the outcome of doing the wrong thing could well be the death of someone..... difficult times.

If you're young and healthy, by all means don't worry about catching the virus, as you will probably be fine. But do take care not to spread your germs, otherwise you run the risk of infecting others who are less healthy than yourself. This is not hard to judge. Everyone should make an effort not to spread their germs.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

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[Triggaaar]

This is the problem right? As soon as they re-open, the cases will continue to rise. They'd have to wait until there were no cases in the country, and maybe even the world, for them to resume normal service without this picking back up.

'Just' in the country if they close their borders. A mammoth task.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Have I heard this right...for a “ herd” to become immune there needs to be 60% coverage of people getting it. ( chief medical officer last night). They are also predicting 3% mortality rate.

That is a death rate of 1,1 million people.

Now that cannot be right as presumably the 66 million should discount children possibly?

These are astronomical rates .

Of course no one knows, but Johnson’s theme seemed to be...people will die..shit happens.

The chief medical officer predicted a mortality rate of 1%. My worry is that even with this figure, intensive care will become over-run.

 

[Triggaaar]

Again, something I've been saying for weeks to all those who say "China have got it under control - this ain't so bad."

They've got 1.4bn people with no immunity to the disease - how do they move forward?

They buy time. Of course I agree, they haven't fixed the problem, but they have certainly slowed down the spread. I don't know how they plan to cope with the lack of people earning etc. It may be that they have moved themselves from the sharp end of the pandemic, to a position where they can learn from how other countries succeed and fail.

 

[peterward]

The chief medical officer predicted a mortality rate of 1%. My worry is that even with this figure, intensive care will become over-run.

It will big time

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-uk-doctor-nhs-hospital-symptoms-italy-china-a9397736.html

 

[Notters]

Again, something I've been saying for weeks to all those who say "China have got it under control - this ain't so bad."

They've got 1.4bn people with no immunity to the disease - how do they move forward?

To a certain extent it depends on how long it takes to develop a vaccine OR effective drug treatments. Whilst the vaccine may be a year or so, it could be that remdesivir, for example, works well and could be used when the quarantine is ended.

 

[Triggaaar]

In some respects I guess this is why part of our outlook involves accepting that people will get this thing, and this should happen in a managed (and managable) way.

It may be that we have two choices, neither of them very appealing.

1. We allow a controlled and managed process, where we do our best to control the numbers at any given time, and give our health service the best chance of helping as many of the seriously ill as we possibly can, and we gradually benefit from the community immunity which develops. As more people recover and develop immunity, the ability of the illness to spread weakens.

2. We run and hide from this hoping it goes away, we stay susceptable with little to no immunity, any small cluster of cases can explode at any moment in the population now, or into the future, because we cannot avoid the inevitable spread forever, and trying to avoid it only prolongs the agony. The longer this goes on for the harder it will get.

I don't think either of those are the answer. Option 1 will not see enough people who have recovered from the virus, so we won't have herd immunity.

Although I think we need to limit the cases as much as possible (to give the health service some hope of coping) until a vaccine is ready, I don't have any idea about the reality of having a country on lock-down for months.

Right now I'm just hoping that summer arrives and helps.

 

[Swansman]

Sweden got 687 confirmed cases compared to UK 580 and so far has had a quicker spread, but there may very well come a "boom" in the UK at some point as well, like in plenty countries.

I made a model for how many confirmed cases there will be in Sweden from today (13 March) to April 13 if it develops sort of like now and with no lockdown.

I have no idea if the size of the UK population compared to the Swedish (10m) would increase or decrease speed.

Sorry cant be bothered to change the names of the days from my original document.

So far (confirmed figures):

26 feb - 2
27 feb - 7 (+250%)
28 feb - 11 (57%)
29 feb - 13 (+18%
1 mar - 14 (+8%)
2 mar - 15 (+7%)
3 mar: 30 (+100%)
4 mar: 52 (+73%)
5 mar: 94 (+81%)
6 mar: 137 (+46%)
7 mar - 161 (+18%)
8 mar - 203 (+26%)
9 mar - 260 (+28%)
10 mar - 356 (+37%)
11 mar - 500 (+40%)
12 mar - 687 (+37%)

Coming week

Fredag 13 mars - 914 (+33%)
Lördag 14 mars - 1217 (+33%)
Söndag 15 mars - 1619 (+33%)
Måndag 16 mars - 2106 (+30%)
Tisdag 17 mars - 2738 (+30%)
Onsdag 18 mars - 3559 (+30%)
Torsdag 19 mars - 4626 (+30%)
Fredag 20 mars - 6014 (+30%)

Here if not before I think the government will shut down some schools etc, and so I reduce the growth to 25%:

Lördag 21 mars - 7518
Söndag 22 mars - 9398

Måndag 23 mars - 11 738
Tisdag 24 mars - 14 673
Onsdag 25 - mars 18 340
Torsdag 26 mars - 22 925
Fredag 27 mars - 28 656
Lördag 28 mars - 35 820
Söndag 29 mars - 44 775

Måndag 30 mars - 55 968
Tisdag 31 mars - 69 960
Onsdag 1 april - 87 450
Torsdag 2 april - 109 312
Fredag 3 april - 136 640
Lördag 4 april - 170 800
Söndag 5 april - 213 500

Here if not before I expect the growth to go down to 20% because a lot of people will partly mostly meet already infected people:

Måndag 6 april - 256 200
Tisdag 7 april - 307 440
Onsdag 8 april - 384 300
Torsdag 9 april - 461 160
Fredag 10 april - 553 392
Lördag 11 april - 691 740
Söndag 12 april - 830 088
Måndag 13 april - 996 105

After the prognosis, 1 million should be infected:

Tisdag 14 april - 1 195 326, or more than 10% of the population

 

[Deleted member 22389]

How many testing positive for CV today? I reckon it will be 180

 

[dingodan]

Sweden got 687 confirmed cases compared to UK 580 and so far has had a quicker spread, but there may very well come a "boom" in the UK at some point as well, like in plenty countries.

I made a model for how many confirmed cases there will be in Sweden from today (13 March) to April 13 if it develops sort of like now and with no lockdown.

I have no idea if the size of the UK population compared to the Swedish (10m) would increase or decrease speed.

Sorry cant be bothered to change the names of the days from my original document.

So far (confirmed figures):

26 feb - 2
27 feb - 7 (+250%)
28 feb - 11 (57%)
29 feb - 13 (+18%
1 mar - 14 (+8%)
2 mar - 15 (+7%)
3 mar: 30 (+100%)
4 mar: 52 (+73%)
5 mar: 94 (+81%)
6 mar: 137 (+46%)
7 mar - 161 (+18%)
8 mar - 203 (+26%)
9 mar - 260 (+28%)
10 mar - 356 (+37%)
11 mar - 500 (+40%)
12 mar - 687 (+37%)

Coming week

Fredag 13 mars - 914 (+33%)
Lördag 14 mars - 1217 (+33%)
Söndag 15 mars - 1619 (+33%)
Måndag 16 mars - 2106 (+30%)
Tisdag 17 mars - 2738 (+30%)
Onsdag 18 mars - 3559 (+30%)
Torsdag 19 mars - 4626 (+30%)
Fredag 20 mars - 6014 (+30%)

Here if not before I think the government will shut down some schools etc, and so I reduce the growth to 25%:

Lördag 21 mars - 7518
Söndag 22 mars - 9398

Måndag 23 mars - 11 738
Tisdag 24 mars - 14 673
Onsdag 25 - mars 18 340
Torsdag 26 mars - 22 925
Fredag 27 mars - 28 656
Lördag 28 mars - 35 820
Söndag 29 mars - 44 775

Måndag 30 mars - 55 968
Tisdag 31 mars - 69 960
Onsdag 1 april - 87 450
Torsdag 2 april - 109 312
Fredag 3 april - 136 640
Lördag 4 april - 170 800
Söndag 5 april - 213 500

Here if not before I expect the growth to go down to 20% because a lot of people will partly mostly meet already infected people:

Måndag 6 april - 256 200
Tisdag 7 april - 307 440
Onsdag 8 april - 384 300
Torsdag 9 april - 461 160
Fredag 10 april - 553 392
Lördag 11 april - 691 740
Söndag 12 april - 830 088
Måndag 13 april - 996 105

After the prognosis, 1 million should be infected:

Tisdag 14 april - 1 195 326, or more than 10% of the population

So, with the actual infections being 10 - 20 X the number of confirmed cases, that would mean 10 - 20M cases?

Also, this may not work out since we are no longer testing in the same way. We are now only testing in hospitals.

 

[herecomesaregular]

How many testing positive for CV today? I reckon it will be 180

But aren't we doing testing in a very different way to other countries meaning any comparison with them now is meaningless? Loads of people who have it will just stay home and ride it out and noone will test them... (which I don't think is a bad thing. If i get it i don't need to call 111 or have treatment if symptoms are only mild to bareable)

 

[Deleted member 22389]

But aren't we doing testing in a very different way to other countries meaning any comparison with them now is meaningless? Loads of people who have it will just stay home and ride it out and noone will test them... (which I don't think is a bad thing. If i get it i don't need to call 111 or have treatment if symptoms are only mild to bareable)

Your right.

 

[Swansman]

So, with the actual infections being 10 - 20 X the number of confirmed cases, that would mean 10 - 20M cases?

Also, this may not work out since we are no longer testing in the same way. We are now only testing in hospitals.

Yeah in my original text in Swedish I wrote "please considered that I have not counted with the fact that we wont be able to do enough tests at a certain point".

About the 10-20x number of confirmed cases I wonder if this still applies after a certain percentage of the population got the virus.

With the 10 million people population of Sweden, 20 million infected would be new levels of surreal.

 

[Notters]

But aren't we doing testing in a very different way to other countries meaning any comparison with them now is meaningless? Loads of people who have it will just stay home and ride it out and noone will test them... (which I don't think is a bad thing. If i get it i don't need to call 111 or have treatment if symptoms are only mild to bareable)

Yep, combined with the fact that the government's experts reckon they're only aware of 5-10% of cases the tested numbers are meaningless.

 

[highflyer]

Again, something I've been saying for weeks to all those who say "China have got it under control - this ain't so bad."

They've got 1.4bn people with no immunity to the disease - how do they move forward?

Carefully.

And I don't mean that facetiously.

They were facing a situation that was moving out of control. They have bought time, can now prepare, with a lot more information as to what is needed and begin to open up again in a staged and controlled way.

 

[CheeseRolls]

I am no expert in this field - so make of this what you like, it is just my opinion.

Herd Immunity - What a load of old Bollocks!!! Please stop clinging to this embarrassing phrase, it just will not happen.

We are talking about a virus that was capable of jumping species and then spreading rapidly. I think it is going to mutate and develop multiple strains, which is what flu does. In all likelyhood, people who have been infected will have some immunity to the original strain, but mutations?

Deep Mind the UK AI capability Google acquired has had a go at cracking the protein structure. Reading through some of this and with my limited understanding, it felt like trying to predict a snooker match. Right now we can safely say that even on a bad day Ronnie O'Sullivan would beat me 10 frames to nil every day for a week. Where we need to be on this to be able to develop a vaccine, is to be able to accurately predict the position of every ball 20 shots into a frame. Resources put behind this, will be almost limitless, it is still going to take time to develop a vaccine.

If there is no sign of a vaccine, a policy of mass isolation, feels like a political response, rather than a containment strategy. Except of course, as we are seeing, whether it is sport, music the arts or just going on holiday. Which is worst a blanket ban or lots of chaotic last minute cancellations as performers and or venues are unable to get healthy people in the right place at the right time? I would argue that the spread of the virus should not be the only consideration here in terms of directing government policy.

Respiratory problems, in theory should be less of an issue in dry warm summers, versus damp cold winters, except for atmospheric pollution. So will we see restrictions on vehicle usage over the summer, or are we just happy to let the vulnerable die?

If you are an expert advisor to the government, you have two choices, walk away immediately they do something you don't agree with, or hang around hoping you can gain more influence inside the camp as things progress. If nothing else you will probably get a knighthood out of it. Don't for a minute believe that in these circumstances the experts are either in agreement or leading the direction of travel.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

But aren't we doing testing in a very different way to other countries meaning any comparison with them now is meaningless? Loads of people who have it will just stay home and ride it out and noone will test them... (which I don't think is a bad thing. If i get it i don't need to call 111 or have treatment if symptoms are only mild to bareable)

For those who don't ride it out, are the funeral directors going to get hazmat outfits to be able to deal with the bodies?

 

[A1X]

Much lower priority than much, of course, I would imagine this has put paid to any VE Day 75 celebrations which were being planned. Especially as any veterans would be the exact group you'd want to isolate given their age.