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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



Springal

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2005
24,779
GOSBTS
I am due to go on holiday to Turkey at the end of the month for a week.

I have been told by my employers that if I go then on my return they will insist i self isolate for two weeks and they will only pay me the statuary sick pay.

What are your thoughts on this ?

Seems fair enough to me. What does your travel insurance policy say ?
 






jabba

Well-known member
Jul 15, 2009
1,341
York
Indeed, but I think this is aiming for a least worst outcome, not a best outcome. The maths is just horrendous.

Last night I did a quick and dirty spreadsheet based on my guess that there were 10,000 people actually infected in the country, with the infections doubling every 6 days, which is what it seems to be, give or take.



New infection rate should slow as there will be fewer uninfected targets??
 


Lyndhurst 14

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2008
5,241
Seems like some insurance companies are going to play the Coronavirus pandemic card to decline paying out on existing policies and issuing future ones including coverage for any viral infections.

Who'd have thunk it?
 






darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,650
Sittingbourne, Kent
My wife undergoes her fourth cycle of chemotherapy tomorrow for Lymphoma. We will be self isolating for the week immediately following her treatment, when her immune system will be at its lowest.

Probably over reacting, but hey, wouldn’t you?
 


jabba

Well-known member
Jul 15, 2009
1,341
York
In Press conference was waiting for them to answer the question "How old is old?"
I realise will have individual factors involved, but i can't see that the immune system of a (say) 65 year-old is much different to a 55 year old?
 






Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,659
Brighton
Coronavirus / Covid-19

Our government took a strategic decision to frighten the shit out of people by declaring that 80% of the population could catch it. This was a tactic to scare people into action in the hope that it would help reduce the spread (although screening passengers from Italy, Iran etc would have been a lot more effective). That rate of infection is ‘War Of The Worlds’/‘Independence Day’ disaster level. It’s bollocks however well intentioned. The Germans copied us but chose 70% which is still absurd but a tiny little bit more believable!

However, look at the Diamond Princess (as [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] pointed out) and you have a fantastic model of what could happen in a worst case scenario. A closed environment, an elderly population and very little experience or expertise in dealing with Covid-19.

This figures were 25% infection rate with 1% deaths. They tested everyone to get precise figures.

Divide this down and you can see that in a worst case scenario in South East England, about 23,000 people would sadly die.

SE England Pop: 9,140,000
Infected: 2,285,000
Deaths: 22,850

This is very very tragic but not the end of the world.

I think every tiny little measure everyone takes will reduce these figures down and down. We’ve got the NHS on our side, we just need to keep washing our hands, using tissues and self isolating.

I think we’ll better Hubei’s infection rate of 0.015% because we have the knowledge of what has happened there first and some of the most talented medical people on the planet.
Also, China tried to cover up Coronavirus before it exploded so we are already ahead of the curve but if we matched their figures, it could look something like this in the South East.

SE England Pop: 9,140,000
Infected: 137,100
Deaths: 1,371

Extrapolate that to the UK population as a whole and that’s 6,650 deaths in the UK in total which still seems a large amount compared to China’s death toll (which I assume could double).

That death toll would be a disaster, but it’s not 100,000.
 


Sorrel

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,940
Back in East Sussex
Once a heavy lock down starts it's going to be difficult to stop it., especially if the suggested temperature sensitivity of the virus is true and we will be in the worst phase of it at the end of March and through April. If that was the case, we don't want people giving up with the lock down at the worst time for it.

I still expect there to be a gradually increasing lock down from now on, with further measures implemented every couple of days. I think that is more sensible than a full-on lock everything down now approach.

And anyway, we can lock ourselves down if we want. My household have certainly changed their behaviour and I expect a lot of other people have too.
 


AZ Gull

@SeagullsAcademy @seagullsacademy.bsky.social
Oct 14, 2003
13,091
Chandler, AZ
Why on earth would you want to travel around Europe when there’s a global pandemic?

I’m genuinely curious why as I’ve seen a few holiday goers talking up their holidays here without a care in the world. I even know some personally who have decided to fly to India.

I’m glad you’re at least considering things!

Cancel it man. Come on.

Didn't India close their borders yesterday?
 




Notters

Well-known member
Oct 20, 2003
24,889
Guiseley
My wife undergoes her fourth cycle of chemotherapy tomorrow for Lymphoma. We will be self isolating for the week immediately following her treatment, when her immune system will be at its lowest.

Probably over reacting, but hey, wouldn’t you?

Not over reacting in the slightest. All the best to you both.
 




vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
My wife undergoes her fourth cycle of chemotherapy tomorrow for Lymphoma. We will be self isolating for the week immediately following her treatment, when her immune system will be at its lowest.

Probably over reacting, but hey, wouldn’t you?

Not overreacting at all. Completely understandable and sensible.
 








Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
25,452
Sussex by the Sea


pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,684
However, look at the Diamond Princess (as @Guinness Boy pointed out) and you have a fantastic model of what could happen in a worst case scenario. A closed environment, an elderly population and very little experience or expertise in dealing with Covid-19.

Is it though?

You had a literally fully compartmentalised group of people. I am not sure when they were quarantined but I expect it was relatively early on when the first case was confirmed.
 




Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,312
Living In a Box
Didn't India close their borders yesterday?

I think from tomorrow they are not issuing a visa to enter for at least a month
 


PILTDOWN MAN

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 15, 2004
19,592
Hurst Green
My wife undergoes her fourth cycle of chemotherapy tomorrow for Lymphoma. We will be self isolating for the week immediately following her treatment, when her immune system will be at its lowest.

Probably over reacting, but hey, wouldn’t you?

Good luck to both of you.
 


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