Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Albion Dan]

View attachment 120904

"Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path."

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

We had 73 new cases yesterday. A 16% increase. Would suggest we are doing better than trend.

 

[The Clamp]

People horrified it’s going up? What did you expect?

 

[pb21]

We had 73 new cases yesterday. A 16% increase. Would suggest we are doing better than trend.

The current rate of increase does seem to be currently a bit lower here than in the US/France/Germany/Spain, although the latest figures are an increase of 22%.

I wonder if that’s because the measures we are already taking here are more robust than other similar countries, or some other reason, such as climate as others have suggested.

 

[Soylent Blue]

We had 73 new cases yesterday. A 16% increase. Would suggest we are doing better than trend.

Thats because weve tested over 30,000 people compared to the USA's 5000 for example. Its all about slowing it down so health services dont get swamped by the critical cases as this would make the fatality rate spike.

Ive found this chaps view informative...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0HYh6zjTUo&list=PLxTGj_LYkLMDxaR9ZRVUofHk0koZbfi8G&index=43

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm just not buying it. I know you're concerned about it, but I really can't find it in me to think it's anything more than a flavour of the month story which will inevitably be out of the news as soon as something else happens.

Wow. I wish you were right, but I can't see it.

 

[dingodan]

Wow. You really do just not understand most of what is written on this board, do you.
I’m sorry to go to insults Trig, but you really are a ****ing idiot.

I definately recall you playing this situation down only a few days ago, what was it you said?

Influenza kills about 80,000 a year, globally.
This is a new mutation of a virus so it’s got folks excited. Scientists and medical bods all want a piece of the action so they all have something to say.

The virus doesn’t actually do much harm even if it does infect 80% of a population.
This world needs to get a grip on itself.

Anyway, I deal in facts. The vast, vast, VAST majority of those infected will feel no more than a light cold.
Numbers of infected are irrelevant if the consequences don’t really matter.

Because we live in a silly, triggered world where doom and disaster is mere moments away.
This time next year the average man on the Clapham omnibus will no more remember Coronavirus than they will who won Britain’s got talent in 2008.

As for being "sorry to going to insults...but", calling someone a ****ing idiot is completely uncalled for.

Also worth noting that an apology, followed by a conditional (but, or if), is not a sincere apology.

 

[The Clamp]

I definately recall you playing this situation down only a few days ago, what was it you said?









As for being "sorry to going to insults...but", calling someone a ****ing idiot is completely uncalled for.

Also worth noting that an apology, followed by a conditional (but, or if), is not a sincere apology.

I stand by all of that.
I have never stated people won’t die. For some it’s serious. For the vast, vast majority of us, it’s not. My position has not changed.

 

[Dick Swiveller]

Good to see this thread going the way of the Brexit ones - people on both extremes trying to convince others of something they will never believe in for some reason. Whilst ironically covering their desks and keyboards in spittle, it would seem.

 

[atomised]

Good to see this thread going the way of the Brexit ones - people on both extremes trying to convince others of something they will never believe in for some reason. Whilst ironically covering their desks and keyboards in spittle, it would seem.

Always the way and the same on every forum I use. Normally sensible posters at each others throats with extreme opinions where the reality is yet to be known

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Unfortunately "could be worse" and "will be worse" seems pretty closely knit together.

Just trying to stay positive.

 

[dingodan]

I stand by all of that.
I have never stated people won’t die. For some it’s serious. For the vast, vast majority of us, it’s not. My position has not changed.

So if 80% of the population got infected it won't matter, and scientists and medical "bods" are playing this up and acting out of self interest?

You really believe that?

 

[The Clamp]

Getting back on track;

NHS still categorising a low-moderate risk.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

 

[Notters]

Getting back on track;

NHS still categorising a low-moderate risk.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

That says it has be raise FROM low TO moderate.

 

[Dick Swiveller]

Always the way and the same on every forum I use. Normally sensible posters at each others throats with extreme opinions where the reality is yet to be known

It is weird the way that can happen in the most banal of sectors. I am into old computers so follow a few people on Twitter. Turns out one guy has been trolling the whole scene for years. Claiming credit for games he was never involved in. Giving positive reviews to his own books and slagging those of other people who wouldn't involve him. Playing people off against each other. Using sock puppet accounts to spread his bile and lies. All over a hobby which is seen by most as on a par with train spotting.

 

[The Clamp]

So if 80% of the population got infected it won't matter, and scientists and medical "bods" are playing this up and acting out of self interest?

You really believe that?

I think due to the risk to the vulnerable sectors of society it should be taken seriously and the threat level assessed by health professionals.

The NHS, made up of health professionals categorises Coronavirus as a moderate risk.

 

[The Clamp]

That says it has be raise FROM low TO moderate.

There you go then, pays to pay attention

 

[Wozza]

This is one of the most important charts.

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backgrounds.

What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.

From: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

("But there are only 11 cases in Sussex...." !!!!)

 

[Notters]

The current rate of increase does seem to be currently a bit lower here than in the US/France/Germany/Spain, although the latest figures are an increase of 22%.

I wonder if that’s because the measures we are already taking here are more robust than other similar countries, or some other reason, such as climate as others have suggested.

Could well be the endless rain. A long spell of high pressure predicted from Monday though :thud:

 

[The Clamp]

View attachment 120910

This is one of the most important charts.

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backgrounds.

What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.

From: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

("But there are only 11 cases in Sussex...." !!!!)

Yep. Lots of people are going to get it.

 

[Wozza]

Yep. Lots of people are going to get it.

Thanks for your input. Really informative.