Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[dsr-burnley]

[tweet]1501886435145699328[/tweet]

The figure of 0.04% fatality for flu seems low, for this country at least. It may be correct in New Zealand, where it was calculated, but is it correct here?

All through this pandemic when flu has been quoted, it has been said to cause about 7,000 deaths in a good year, 20,000 - 40,000 deaths in a bad year. But divide that by 0.0004, and you get 17.5m cases in a good year for flu, and between 50m and 100m cases in a bad year. There are only 67m people living here.

2019-20, for example, had 7,990 flu deaths according to the annual flu report (page 53), and said that "Low levels of influenza activity were seen in the community in the UK in 2019-20" (page 67). 7,990 divided by 0.04% is 20 million cases, which wouldn't be considered low. That's about how many covid cases we've identified in 2 years. 20m cases wouldn't be considered to be low.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2019_to_2020_FINAL.pdf

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

[tweet]1501886435145699328[/tweet]

I keep seeing this graph and general stance.

However, what it doesn't mention is numbers. Yes as a percentage less people are now dying of Covid than flu, but that is based on the number of people who test positive for Covid and die, against those that die from flu.

Its all about base numbers beimg made to fit to the position the poster wants to achieve.

As far as I am aware there is no testing protocol for flu, so similar to the data from the outset of Covid, where the only people who were being tested were those being hospitalised, now there are are thousands being tested for Covid and low(er) numbers dying, whereas those suffering from flu aren't diagnosed in great numbers until they reach hospital.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I keep seeing this graph and general stance.

However, what it doesn't mention is numbers. Yes as a percentage less people are now dying of Covid than flu, but that is based on the number of people who test positive for Covid and die, against those that die from flu.

Its all about base numbers beimg made to fit to the position the poster wants to achieve.

As far as I am aware there is no testing protocol for flu, so similar to the data from the outset of Covid, where the only people who were being tested were those being hospitalised, now there are are thousands being tested for Covid and low(er) numbers dying, whereas those suffering from flu aren't diagnosed in great numbers until they reach hospital.

You're right about the lack of testing for flu, which is presumably why this study has used as the baseline the mortality rate from New Zealand. Presumably they have the most accurate figures, for whatever reason. They can only use best estimates.

We do know how many people die of flu, more or less, and according to the paper I quoted it was between 4k and 22k per year in the five years before coronavirus. This would suggest, if the 0.04% figure is correct, a number of cases between 10m and 55m per year - which seems unlikely. Certainly the flu mortality figure can't be significantly below 0.04% because that would mean we were all have to be getting it two or three times each in a bad year.

But like you say, there's a lot more coronavirus about than there is flu. That's the risk at present. Mr Healthy can go about his normal business because if he does catch coronavirus it's unlikely to affect him unduly; older, sicker, frailer people can't go about their normal business because the chances of catching it are still high and for them, it's a serious disease.

 

[darkwolf666]

You're right about the lack of testing for flu, which is presumably why this study has used as the baseline the mortality rate from New Zealand. Presumably they have the most accurate figures, for whatever reason. They can only use best estimates.

We do know how many people die of flu, more or less, and according to the paper I quoted it was between 4k and 22k per year in the five years before coronavirus. This would suggest, if the 0.04% figure is correct, a number of cases between 10m and 55m per year - which seems unlikely. Certainly the flu mortality figure can't be significantly below 0.04% because that would mean we were all have to be getting it two or three times each in a bad year.

But like you say, there's a lot more coronavirus about than there is flu. That's the risk at present. Mr Healthy can go about his normal business because if he does catch coronavirus it's unlikely to affect him unduly; older, sicker, frailer people can't go about their normal business because the chances of catching it are still high and for them, it's a serious disease.

Well summed up, could you nudge Mr Johnson, to remind him!

 

[dazzer6666]

Not sure ‘better’ should be associated with ‘death rate’ TBH but interesting comparison

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...th-rate-compared-rest-world-isnot-bad-feared/

Britain's Covid pandemic death rate is much better than previously thought compared with the rest of the world, a Lancet study has shown.

Research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US calculated the excess death rates for 191 countries and territories and found that the UK is now roughly in the middle at 102.

Previously, countries have been judged by death rates alone, which would place Britain at 168 – the 24th worst in the world. Critics of the Government's pandemic response have often cited this figure as justification for calling for tougher Covid restrictions.

But Britain was found to have an excess death rate of 126.8 per 100,000, very close to France – which had 124.4 per 100,000 – and Germany, with 120.5 per 100,000.

Sweden, which did not lock down, was found to have one of the best excess death rates in Europe, with 91.2 per 100,000. Only Finland, Luxembourg and Iceland fared better.

The UK excess death rate is close to the average global excess death rate of 120 per 100,000.

 

[e77]

Not sure ‘better’ should be associated with ‘death rate’ TBH but interesting comparison

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...th-rate-compared-rest-world-isnot-bad-feared/

Britain's Covid pandemic death rate is much better than previously thought compared with the rest of the world, a Lancet study has shown.

Research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US calculated the excess death rates for 191 countries and territories and found that the UK is now roughly in the middle at 102.

Previously, countries have been judged by death rates alone, which would place Britain at 168 – the 24th worst in the world. Critics of the Government's pandemic response have often cited this figure as justification for calling for tougher Covid restrictions.

But Britain was found to have an excess death rate of 126.8 per 100,000, very close to France – which had 124.4 per 100,000 – and Germany, with 120.5 per 100,000.

Sweden, which did not lock down, was found to have one of the best excess death rates in Europe, with 91.2 per 100,000. Only Finland, Luxembourg and Iceland fared better.

The UK excess death rate is close to the average global excess death rate of 120 per 100,000.

You can't argue with stats and the comparison with France and Germany is probably fair but Sweden did have some Covid restrictions and you still can't visit there for non essential reasons from outside the EU/EEA until the end of the month and it does note Finland next door did better.

Had this country been better at applying common sense at times we could have had fewer restrictions but the only way people took any notice was when they were put into law.

Let's not forget that pre-vaccination had we not put the brakes on the NHS would have been overwhelmed a couple of times.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Results from ���� STUDY of 7491 people admitted to ICU with Covid v
1630 patients with mild symptoms &
48,400 people who have never had Covid
IDENTIFIED GENETIC PATTERNS helping explain why some get life-threatening Covid, while others get no symptoms at all

https://www.ft.com/content/d7c35c45-10c5-46a5-afa7-cc938e292081

 

[dazzer6666]

Results from ���� STUDY of 7491 people admitted to ICU with Covid v
1630 patients with mild symptoms &
48,400 people who have never had Covid
IDENTIFIED GENETIC PATTERNS helping explain why some get life-threatening Covid, while others get no symptoms at all

https://www.ft.com/content/d7c35c45-10c5-46a5-afa7-cc938e292081

Interesting - we've still got so much to learn about this. Hopefully we'll get to a point where most particular vulnerabilities are identified soon

 

[crodonilson]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-deltacron-identified-as-new-variant-how-fast-is-it-spreading-and-should-we-be-worried-12563165

This is rather worrying and may be part of the reason why cases are up by 50% on the previous weeks figures and hospitalisations are increasing steadily again too. My life had started to return to some semblance of pre 2020 normality, is it time to reintroduce some baseline measures such as mask wearing in public places and shops and free testing for more of the population?

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-deltacron-identified-as-new-variant-how-fast-is-it-spreading-and-should-we-be-worried-12563165

This is rather worrying and may be part of the reason why cases are up by 50% on the previous weeks figures and hospitalisations are increasing steadily again too. My life had started to return to some semblance of pre 2020 normality, is it time to reintroduce some baseline measures such as mask wearing in public places and shops and free testing for more of the population?

Welcome back Crodo and I hope you and loved one are well

LFT’s as I understand it are still free to the general population in England until April 1st as I understand it

 

[The Clamp]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-deltacron-identified-as-new-variant-how-fast-is-it-spreading-and-should-we-be-worried-12563165

This is rather worrying and may be part of the reason why cases are up by 50% on the previous weeks figures and hospitalisations are increasing steadily again too. My life had started to return to some semblance of pre 2020 normality, is it time to reintroduce some baseline measures such as mask wearing in public places and shops and free testing for more of the population?

We live in a world with Covid. Ignore it and get on with life. I bet you barely notice the difference.

If it is back, I'm looking forward to an invite to a No.10 par.. I mean work meeting.

 

[worthingseagull123]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-deltacron-identified-as-new-variant-how-fast-is-it-spreading-and-should-we-be-worried-12563165

This is rather worrying and may be part of the reason why cases are up by 50% on the previous weeks figures and hospitalisations are increasing steadily again too. My life had started to return to some semblance of pre 2020 normality, is it time to reintroduce some baseline measures such as mask wearing in public places and shops and free testing for more of the population?

No. The mask wearing days are gone. I rarely see anyone in one these days.

If you’re worried, get groceries delivered to your house.

 

[Weststander]

Quite a few hospital colleagues of Mrs.W have or have just had the new Omicron variant.

Most had no symptoms whatsoever (only picked up by testing) or mild cold-like symptoms for two days.

 

[Yoda]

Obviously didn't read the full report.

"However, scientists stress there is now substantial immunity in the human population against both variants and there is no reason to think this will pose a danger to vaccines."

&

"And Dr Van Kerkhove added in the places where "Deltacron" has been found, "there are very low levels of this detection".

She also confirmed they had not seen "any change in severity", and that studies will continue to track its effects."

 

[darkwolf666]

My wife, who as many here know, has blood cancer, has been invited to be part of the Melody Study, run by the Imperial College London.

This is a study to see how those who are immunosuppressed have reacted to having the Covid vaccines and if they have developed anti bodies.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/melody-study/

Unfortunately, despite having had 4 vaccinations the test indicates she has developed no antibodies, so is still extremely vulnerable to Covid. People with blood cancer are still over 50% more likely to die if admitted to hospital with Covid.

She has now descended back into a spiral of depression, despite my best efforts to convince her that other things like a T cell boost from the vaccines may have occurred, but to be honest it hasn’t helped.

 

[nicko31]

Shenzhen, China into lockdown

https://time.com/6157175/covid-china-shenzhen/

Another spanner into the works for global supply chains

 

[pearl]

My wife, who as many here know, has blood cancer, has been invited to be part of the Melody Study, run by the Imperial College London.

This is a study to see how those who are immunosuppressed have reacted to having the Covid vaccines and if they have developed anti bodies.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/melody-study/

Unfortunately, despite having had 4 vaccinations the test indicates she has developed no antibodies, so is still extremely vulnerable to Covid. People with blood cancer are still over 50% more likely to die if admitted to hospital with Covid.

She has now descended back into a spiral of depression, despite my best efforts to convince her that other things like a T cell boost from the vaccines may have occurred, but to be honest it hasn’t helped.

Really sorry to hear that. Take good care of her and yourself too
best wishes

 

[Poojah]

So two years into this shitshow I have finally returned a positive test. Triple-jabbed, so I’m not unduly unwell - just feeling a bit lethargic with a splitting headache.

I’m due to fly to LA on Saturday, my first flight since August 2019. What are the chances of returning a negative test in the interim?

 

[darkwolf666]

Really sorry to hear that. Take good care of her and yourself too
best wishes

Thank you very much. We managed to get away for a couple of days, in the middle of nowhere in our little family group. Weird how just being somewhere away from the usual 4 walls makes a difference!

 

[Springal]

So two years into this shitshow I have finally returned a positive test. Triple-jabbed, so I’m not unduly unwell - just feeling a bit lethargic with a splitting headache.

I’m due to fly to LA on Saturday, my first flight since August 2019. What are the chances of returning a negative test in the interim?

When was your last negative test / first positive. Our household caught it last month - I'd say minimum was 7 days, maximum 10 days. Some LFTs gave a negative, but then a positive. Who are you flying with?