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Lottery Dilemma

WHAT WOULD YOU GO FOR ?

  • 10 MILLION GUARANTEED

    Votes: 51 58.6%
  • I'D CHANCE IT AND GO FOR 105 MILLION

    Votes: 36 41.4%

  • Total voters
    87
















hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
At [MENTION=11956]bushy[/MENTION]'s odds, yes they are. If it was only 99%, it would be interesting.

Even at 99%, I'd take the £105m, then offer my hypothetical rich associate £20m of my potential winnings for £10m. Must be somebody who would be rich enough to take those very attractive odds.
 








hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
Would you look under "H" in the yellow pages?

I'm pretty sure I'd manage okay. I know plenty of people who move in pretty wealthy circles, who would know somebody willing to buy in.

They've a 99% chance of doubling £10m overnight, with just a 1% chance of losing it. There are plenty of people who take far, far bigger risks with comparable sums of money, on a daily basis.




(mostly with other people's money...)
 




JOLovegrove

Well-known member
Jan 30, 2012
2,060
I would say take the risk, but it isn't a risk. That is the best odds you can find for a gamble. You have to go for it!
 






SeagullSongs

And it's all gone quiet..
Oct 10, 2011
6,937
Southampton
99.999999% is 1 in 100,000,000 chance of NOT winning £105m, right?

I think people either don't understand this fact or are extremely paranoid if they choose the £10m.
If the chance of losing is that small I'd risk it without a second's hesitation. If I don't win then it's tough titties and I'm the unluckiest person on the planet!

The chance of winning the jackpot in the standard lottery is 0.00000715% and people play hoping they'll beat the odds!
 


Seagull27

Well-known member
Feb 7, 2011
3,368
Bristol
Seeing as there's supposedly a 1 in 576,000 chance of being struck by lightning, those who have voted for £10 million should be very worried about going outside any time soon.
 




Jim Van Winkle

Well-known member
Jul 14, 2010
3,125
Hawaii
I'd "chance" it and go for the 105 million. Those saying they would take the 10 million should use get out the abacus and start doing the math.
 




Dec 29, 2011
8,205
I voted for £10m guaranteed before I read there was a 99.999999% of winning the £105m. Changed my mind now!

I think most people did. I almost voted for 10M before reading the OP. Anyone voting 10M after reading the OP is clearly deluded. HKFC proved you can accept the £105m with no chance of a loss.
 






TheJasperCo

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2012
4,612
Exeter
With those odds, you'd have to be a numpty to go for the £10 M. 99.999999% means you have a 1 in 100,000,000 chance of losing. To put it into perspective, the scientists at CERN aren't even 99.999999% sure that they're found the Higgs Boson. Even getting killed by a tsunami or an asteroid are only about 1 in 200,000. It would be criminal to give up all that money when the chances are so good.
 


Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,326
Living In a Box
I was talking to someine at work and I posed the question to him given the choice , would you take £ 10 million absolutely guaranteed or £105 million with 99.999999% chance of winning ? Personally I'd take the ten million, what about NSC'ers ?

PS CAN THIS BE MERGED WITH EMPIRE'S THREAD ?

I think you should get an opinion from the ethic comittee
 


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