Lottery Dilemma

[User removed 4]

I was talking to someine at work and I posed the question to him given the choice , would you take £ 10 million absolutely guaranteed or £105 million with 99.999999% chance of winning ? Personally I'd take the ten million, what about NSC'ers ?

PS CAN THIS BE MERGED WITH EMPIRE'S THREAD ?

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Take the 10 - more than enough. I would think having 105 would give you all sorts of different problems.

 

[Hove Seagull]

Definately the 105 mil.
I mean, what can you get for 10 million these days anyway? 0.2857 of an Andy Carroll!

 

[ees complicated no?]

I'd risk it and go for 105 MIL

can I ask whats with the 99.999999% ?

 

[User removed 4]

i'd risk it and go for 105 mil

can i ask whats with the 99.999999% ?

imagine how you'd feel if you drew a blank though, throwing away ten mil, suicidal !! I went for that many decimal places as just adding a bit more certainty.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Take the £10M , knowing my luck someone else would win the £105M.

 

[Silk]

It wd b stoopid not to take the £10 million.

 

[beorhthelm]

it would depend on what the criteria is for the 105m, how those odds apply. 99.999999 is basically you've won it.

 

[Deleted member 18477]

10 million or potentially nothing? Oh that's really hard. If you'd have said 1 million then I might have chanced it but even 1 million would get rid of all financial worries forever so maybe I wouldn't...

 

[User removed 4]

it would depend on what the criteria is for the 105m, how those odds apply. 99.999999 is basically you've won it.

but there is the tiny chance you'd end up with nothing.

 

[Biscuit]

I'm happy with my lot, and 99.99% is pretty near certain. I don't think I'd actually care if I didn't win, so would go for that!

 

[User removed 4]

10 million or potentially nothing? Oh that's really hard. If you'd have said 1 million then I might have chanced it but even 1 million would get rid of all financial worries forever so maybe I wouldn't...

judging by the poll its not as clear cut as you'd think ?

 

[MJsGhost]

Risk it, then get onto Betfair to see who would be accomodating in my scramble to hedge it!

 

[Aadam]

I think there's a big difference between people answering a poll hypothetically, to actually holding £10,000,000 in cash and giving for it back for a chance of winning £105,000,000

I know I wouldn't so so stupid as to hand the case back.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I'd take the ALMOST certain £105m.

Then I'd find a way to contact somebody very rich, and sell them £15m of my 'almost certain winnings' for £10m.

Guaranteed that £10m at least, or £10m + £90m.

 

[MattBackHome]

For perspective - if you do the bog standard national lottery this weekend, there's a 99.999993% (ish) chance that you WON'T win...

I would gamble, and buy this.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I think there's a big difference between people answering a poll hypothetically, to actually holding £10,000,000 in cash and giving for it back for a chance of winning £105,000,000

I know I wouldn't so so stupid as to hand the case back.

The odds he's offered us though, are 1 in 100,000,000 chance of NOT winning.

Its pretty much a statistical guarantee.

£10m guaranteed, or a 99% chance of £100m would be a better thread.

 

[Birdie Boy]

Look at it this way, you have 00.000001% chance of losing £10m, that is so low that it is nigh on impossible to lose. For this reason, I'm in.

Actually, 00.000001% is probably the actual chance you have of winning the £105m n the Euro's!

 

[User removed 4]

I'd take the ALMOST certain £105m.

Then I'd find a way to contact somebody very rich, and sell them £15m of my 'almost certain winnings' for £10m.

Guaranteed that £10m at least, or £10m + £90m.

Nice bit of arbing !

 

[Aadam]

The odds he's offered us though, are 1 in 100,000,000 chance of NOT winning.

Its pretty much a statistical guarantee.

£10m guaranteed, or a 99% chance of £100m would be a better thread.

You're right, it would be better for 99% -- it would make the decision more thought revoking. But, you don't know my luck. I'd still be that 0.000001% and lose it all. Still, actually physically holding £10,000,000 and then giving it back with even a tiny chance I could walk away with nothing... I don't know...