[Albion] Losing Macalister & Caicedo

[larus]

Nothing wrong with your concern/interest - so much is up in the air right now.

Finishing above Liverpool? Does anyone anywhere think that is a serious possibility? They've just had a shocker of a season and were still five points (plus goal difference) clear of us having our best ever season.

Don’t see why not - not unreasonable IMO.

There was something I saw on twitter which showed the points lost/gained from the mistakes by VAR (not mistakes by refs or things being missed and not going to VAR).

This showed that Liverpool had gained 5 points and we’d been impacted by 8 points.

Factor that in and we’d have finished 8 points higher.

We’ve lost Mac and probably Caicedo will be off too, However, the signings look good and players like Fergusson, Enciso, Buonanotte will be improving all the time so there’s no reason to expect a drop-off in performance.

I’m not saying we will be above them - just that this season we deserved to be and were screwed over by VAR, so I feel it is a serious possibility.

 

[Bakero]

Agreed - I think people underestimate the amount of rebuilding needed at Liverpool, Mac will barely touch the sides of what’s needed there if VVD and Salah don’t recapture their form of previous seasons. I think dumb Liverpool fans think they are getting another Coutinho, realistically they are getting a slightly better/younger Jordan Henderson

Was Salah's form that bad this season? Maybe not quite as impressive as some of his past feats but very good nonetheless.

 

[The Wizard]

Don’t see why not - not unreasonable IMO.

There was something I saw on twitter which showed the points lost/gained from the mistakes by VAR (not mistakes by refs or things being missed and not going to VAR).

This showed that Liverpool had gained 5 points and we’d been impacted by 8 points.

Factor that in and we’d have finished 8 points higher.

We’ve lost Mac and probably Caicedo will be off too, However, the signings look good and players like Fergusson, Enciso, Buonanotte will be improving all the time so there’s no reason to expect a drop-off in performance.

I’m not saying we will be above them - just that this season we deserved to be and were screwed over by VAR, so I feel it is a serious possibility.

Trouble is as well, we are strengthening these so called rivals - selling Mac to Liverpool is strengthening their weakest area with one of our best and if we sell Caicedo to Chelsea that would also strengthen them considerably.

You can’t keep selling your best players to divisional ‘rivals’** and stay in the battle, we landed on our feet with Pervis and Caicedo stepping into Cucu/Biss shoes and actually improving on them, but how long that can go on is another question in itself.

**ps; I’m aware I’m calling Liverpool and Chelsea rivals seems mad, fact is last season we were unbeaten against both, so yes, in current terms they ARE our rivals for league position, I know the small club mentality some have won’t let you believe this, but it’s true.

 

[Machiavelli]

Didn't mean to come across as a miserabalist, I am sure we will have a great season, it was just the idea that we would finish above Liverpool that I think is a bit premature with the current situation in defensive positions. I am sure the club will address, but there is a fair amount of mystery about how our defense will look at the moment.
Who will fill Mac's shoes is less concerning, with the players we already have in the squad and those strongly suspected to arrive.

I probably misread things, and what you were responding to, which come often happen on here, for which apologies.
One of the things that keeps us enthralled with football is the constant refreshment of the narrative, as all start again from scratch at the beginning of the next season. One thought that goes through my mind is 'have we peaked yet' or 'how long is this going to go on for'. It sits uneasily with the recognition that the key metric for a club's success is player wages, and we're punching above on that front.
The key difference with 23/24 to all other seasons is we've got a European adventure. Which is good.

 

[Simster]

Don’t see why not - not unreasonable IMO.

There was something I saw on twitter which showed the points lost/gained from the mistakes by VAR (not mistakes by refs or things being missed and not going to VAR).

This showed that Liverpool had gained 5 points and we’d been impacted by 8 points.

Factor that in and we’d have finished 8 points higher.

We’ve lost Mac and probably Caicedo will be off too, However, the signings look good and players like Fergusson, Enciso, Buonanotte will be improving all the time so there’s no reason to expect a drop-off in performance.

I’m not saying we will be above them - just that this season we deserved to be and were screwed over by VAR, so I feel it is a serious possibility.

Totally agree with all of this. To say there is no chance is very defeatist and ignores the rebuild Liverpool need, plus the fact our team is made up of blossoming youngsters who are only going to get better.

 

[Bozza]

Totally agree with all of this. To say there is no chance is very defeatist and ignores the rebuild Liverpool need, plus the fact our team is made up of blossoming youngsters who are only going to get better.

I didn't say there was "no chance". Of course there's a chance.

What I said was that I don't believe us finishing above Liverpool next season is a serious possibility, by which I mean highly likely.

You can argue the toss on what "serious possibility" / "highly likely" means, but I'm happy to stand by that. I don't need to ho to Oddschecker to know the bookies will have priced up markets in line with that too.

And, again, going back to the first sentence, that doesn't mean I'll be wrong if we do finish above Liverpool - that will be a considerable achievement.

 

[m20gull]

I didn't say there was "no chance". Of course there's a chance.

What I said was that I don't believe us finishing above Liverpool next season is a serious possibility, by which I mean highly likely.

You can argue the toss on what "serious possibility" / "highly likely" means, but I'm happy to stand by that. I don't need to ho to Oddschecker to know the bookies will have priced up markets in line with that too.

And, again, going back to the first sentence, that doesn't mean I'll be wrong if we do finish above Liverpool - that will be a considerable achievement.

Oddschecker has Liverpool to win the league at 17/2 (2nd) and us at 66/1 (joint 7th with Tottenham). It seems like recency bias for us to consider Liverpool and Chelsea as rivals based on one season. Although we have a lot of talent we are not in their revenue league and won't be this season again. Plus we have at least an additional 7 matches to schedule in.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Nothing wrong with your concern/interest - so much is up in the air right now.

Finishing above Liverpool? Does anyone anywhere think that is a serious possibility? They've just had a shocker of a season and were still five points (plus goal difference) clear of us having our best ever season.

Well if we are going to win the league we will have to finish above them, no?

 

[Bozza]

Well if we are going to win the league we will have to finish above them, no?

Of course, yes.

But does that mean it happening is a serious possibility currently?

 

[Baldseagull]

I probably misread things, and what you were responding to, which come often happen on here, for which apologies.
One of the things that keeps us enthralled with football is the constant refreshment of the narrative, as all start again from scratch at the beginning of the next season. One thought that goes through my mind is 'have we peaked yet' or 'how long is this going to go on for'. It sits uneasily with the recognition that the key metric for a club's success is player wages, and we're punching above on that front.
The key difference with 23/24 to all other seasons is we've got a European adventure. Which is good.

No problem, I probably could have written it better. Last few seasons we have done more business for the future than the immediate, but the young players we have bought in the hopes of playing in defence in future have mostly not worked out so well. It just seems to me that for the first time in a fair while we need to do considerable business in the window for the immediate season.

 

[Machiavelli]

No problem, I probably could have written it better. Last few seasons we have done more business for the future than the immediate, but the young players we have bought in the hopes of playing in defence in future have mostly not worked out so well. It just seems to me that for the first time in a fair while we need to do considerable business in the window for the immediate season.

Oh, agreed, but that's been obvious for a long while, and the early purchases are a sign that Bloom agrees (and we can both accept that he knows more about such things than we do). You're right on it being the 'defensive six' (4 at back + GK + DCM) that we need to focus our attention for the remainder of the window. Maybe we need a RW, but that's lower on my priority list. If Sanchez goes, we will need a GK (although that might be from within, eg Rushworth), one or two FBs, a CB and, most likely, also somebody to 'replace' Caicedo.

 

[sparkie]

My assessment ( only looking at players aged over 21 ):

New goalkeeper ( Sanchez will be off ).
Colwill replacement ( if he doesn't sign ).
Mac Allister replacement.
Caicedo stays or new signing.
Lamptey stays or new signing.
van Hecke stays or new signing.
Alzate stays or new signing.
Karbownik stays or new signing.

Khadra, Connolly, Zeqiri, Tolaj, Sima sold.


A really fun window is coming.

 

[Simster]

I didn't say there was "no chance". Of course there's a chance.

What I said was that I don't believe us finishing above Liverpool next season is a serious possibility, by which I mean highly likely.

You can argue the toss on what "serious possibility" / "highly likely" means, but I'm happy to stand by that. I don't need to ho to Oddschecker to know the bookies will have priced up markets in line with that too.

And, again, going back to the first sentence, that doesn't mean I'll be wrong if we do finish above Liverpool - that will be a considerable achievement.

"Finishing above Liverpool? Does anyone anywhere think that is a serious possibility?"

I'm saying that it is indeed a serious possibility. I haven't checked but I suspect the odds of Brighton finishing above Liverpool are no longer than around 8/1, and that puts it into "serious possibility" territory, along the lines of a typical Grand National favourite actually winning.

We were the 6th best team in the country, and you can make a strong case for that being a gross underestimation thanks to VAR. We beat Liverpool twice last year, and drew the other. Their team needs a rebuild whereas ours is about to hit it's peak (although we will lose 2 or 3 key players). I think you underestimate our chances if you don't think it's a serious possibility.

 

[larus]

"Finishing above Liverpool? Does anyone anywhere think that is a serious possibility?"

I'm saying that it is indeed a serious possibility. I haven't checked but I suspect the odds of Brighton finishing above Liverpool are no longer than around 8/1, and that puts it into "serious possibility" territory, along the lines of a typical Grand National favourite actually winning.

We were the 6th best team in the country, and you can make a strong case for that being a gross underestimation thanks to VAR. We beat Liverpool twice last year, and drew the other. Their team needs a rebuild whereas ours is about to hit it's peak (although we will lose 2 or 3 key players). I think you underestimate our chances if you don't think it's a serious possibility.

Yes, the wonders of the nuance of the English language.

To me, something which is expressed as a serious possibility is something which could happen although it’s only possible (not probable) so that’s how I interpreted the post. Maybe my interpretation is wrong though .

I would not class us winning the PL as a serious possibility (it’s still possible but extremely unlikely).

Anyway, the fact that we’re discussing this is unreal really. Beats worrying about Hereford away needing to survive.

IMO, we’ll have another great season, assuming we get a big enough squad to allow resting/rotation. We suffered in the last 6 odd games and we could have been much closer to Liverpool even with the points farce of VAR.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Haven't read all of this, but just curious, whether the Caicedo situation is any clearer?

My hope is Mac was always definitely off, but Caicedo would take a ridiculous offer to prise him away this season.
I'm not aware of anyone in our ranks that could step up to replace Moises, whereas I can see several players plugging the Mac gap.

Feels like it will take £90m+ for a club to persuade us to let him go.
What's the consensus on here?

 

[Mancgull]

Haven't read all of this, but just curious, whether the Caicedo situation is any clearer?

My hope is Mac was always definitely off, but Caicedo would take a ridiculous offer to prise him away this season.
I'm not aware of anyone in our ranks that could step up to replace Moises, whereas I can see several players plugging the Mac gap.

Feels like it will take £90m+ for a club to persuade us to let him go.
What's the consensus on here?

Agree. Seems as if Chelsea are the only team with the available funds to buy Moises at this stage. However FFP and our negotiating stance re Colwill could well scupper that potential move.
With Europa football next season I’m hopeful that he may stay although realistic that if a team meets our price for Moises he’ll be off.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

 

[The Wizard]

 

[sparkie]

Haven't read all of this, but just curious, whether the Caicedo situation is any clearer?

My hope is Mac was always definitely off, but Caicedo would take a ridiculous offer to prise him away this season.
I'm not aware of anyone in our ranks that could step up to replace Moises, whereas I can see several players plugging the Mac gap.

Feels like it will take £90m+ for a club to persuade us to let him go.
What's the consensus on here?

My guess is Caicedo goes to Chelsea for £50 million-ish + Colwill.

 

[Muzzman]

Haven't read all of this, but just curious, whether the Caicedo situation is any clearer?

My hope is Mac was always definitely off, but Caicedo would take a ridiculous offer to prise him away this season.
I'm not aware of anyone in our ranks that could step up to replace Moises, whereas I can see several players plugging the Mac gap.

Feels like it will take £90m+ for a club to persuade us to let him go.
What's the consensus on here?

I agree, although, I've completely resigned myself to losing Caicedo, I think someone will go 'all in' for him, and I'd prefer that to happen sooner rather than later so we can just move on like with Alexis.

In a couple of months we'll all be getting excited to see what RDZ can do with a full pre-season under his belt, new signings and a Europa League to look forward to. I don't want a long drawn out saga featuring Caicedo sullying the excitement that should build in the run up to next season.