Look at the table after Christmas

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

It's a saying you hear quite often. Things will have shaken out by then and we'll get a clear idea how well we're doing. So I had a quick look at previous tables to see.

First up, for reference, Championship 2015/16 after 12 games. We'll be top after Tuesday whatever happens.

(2015-16 Brighton 25pts min)
2014-15 Watford 24 promoted, runners up
2013-14 Burnley 29 promoted, runners up
2012-13 Leicester 25 6th
2011-12 Southampton 26 promoted, runners up
2010-11 QPR 28 Champions
2009-10 West Brom 24 promoted runners up
2008-09 Birmingham 26 promoted, runners up
2007-08 Watford 29 6th
2006-07 Cardiff 29 13th
2005-06 Sheffield Utd 30 Runners up
2004-05 Wigan 24 promoted, runners up

8 teams went up, all of them automatically. Two failed in the play offs. And Cardiff imploded. So pretty solid guide to eventual place after 12 games. Now, looking at what happened to teams who were top on Dec 26th:

2014-15 Bournemouth, Champions
2013-14 Leicester, Champions
2012-13 Cardiff, Champions
2011-12 Southampton, runners up
2010-11 QPR, Champions
2009-10 Newcastle, Champions
2008-09 Wolves, Champions
2007-08 West Brown, Champions
2006-07 Birmingham, runners up
2005-06 Reading, Champions
2004-05 Ipswich 3rd, not promoted

Ten of the eleven sides top on Boxing Day went up, eight of them as Champions. So, unsurprisingly, the correlation between "top at Christmas" and final position is very strong. But the correlation after just 12 games is also pretty strong.

Conclusion: no guarantees (look at Cardiff in 06/07 or Forest last year), but the folk that suggest the table after Christmas is a good guide to final placings are correct. It doesn't mean that form over the first quarter is a poor guide though. Promising start by the Albion - next few games might tell us if three draws and a tired performance against Leeds were a blip or a sign of things to come.

 

[Gully Forever]

Very Interesting facts, Thanks!.

 

[Wilko]

That is some good statistics right there, the Cardiff one is most interesting, 29 points after 12 games to finish in 13th!!

 

[KZNSeagull]

Very interesting and sensible. Can we not dream a bit yet? Just a little bit?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Can we just enjoy the moment? It's good to get excited, but I think most people realise that a nasty injury can happen at any time, or a suspension like Murphy's.
Maybe it's because I'm not that bothered about promotion, but I do enjoy winning games.
IF we are promoted, the moaners on here will have a field day, because we're not going to win most games.

 

[desprateseagull]

But, but, it's so pretty...

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Even of the teams that failed to go up how many failed to go up in a subsequent season? One, Ipswich. Let's face it, at some point we're going up and it could well be this year.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Roll on Christmas.

 

[Trevor]

I would be disappointed if we didn't make the play-offs from here. We will have a poor run of form at some stage of course but this season has been excellent - they look like a really good team

 

[CorgiRegisteredFriend]

Very interesting statistics. Trying not to look at Leicester 2012 who were in an identical position as us points wise and ended up in 6th. Having said that- look at them now.

 

[WSU]

Just had to comment to bounce this back up. I've been looking for this thread for 35 minutes (and don't want to lose it again) to check these stats again after Christmas!

 

[smeg]

Terrific thread, most enjoyable, cheers for that.

 

[neilbard]

 

[dazzer6666]

Just thinking the OP was over a month ago, since when we've had a tough run of (in particular) away games. Still top, still haven't lost.
Genuinely struggling to see how, with the management and team spirit we have, and the likelihood of additions in January, we will go on any disastrous kind of run. Anything outside top 6 now would be an implosion wouldn't it ?

 

[GT49er]

'Judge us after the Christmas turkey'........................ Hmmm - a welcome variation to 'judge us after the transfer window', I suppose!


Unbeaten by Christmas would, I think, be very good.................

 

[BensGrandad]

The next few games appear to be very difficult if we can get 7 pts from the next 3 then look again.

 

[GT49er]

The next few games appear to be very difficult if we can get 7 pts from the next 3 then look again.

Do the next four or five seriously look any harder than the last four or five did, a few weeks ago?

 

[Buzzer]

Do the next four or five seriously look any harder than the last four or five did, a few weeks ago?

Agreed. I keep seeing other fans say we haven't played many big teams yet but we're only 6 games off the halfway mark. We will probably lose soon but there's now no reason to fear any side now.

 

[BensGrandad]

No they are not but we have to approach them in the right manner and with the right attitude, as we have done recently.

 

[GT49er]

Agreed. I keep seeing other fans say we haven't played many big teams yet but we're only 6 games off the halfway mark. We will probably lose soon but there's now no reason to fear any side now.

'Other fans' are starting to look like complete twats. We've played 7 of the current top ten. Won three, drawn four.