[News] Long Haul, Chaps.

[el punal]

Um, you were looking for encouragement. Just trying to indicate one random statement from a publican doesn’t mean we’re out of the pubs until May.

As I said on another post - it was Blue Monday etc. To be honest my last trip to the pub was on Christmas Eve. We had booked a table (as per Tier 2 rules & regs) for myself, Mrs Punal and our youngest daughter and son in law. That all got blown out of the water the week before when they were told they lived in a Tier 4 zone.

To cut a long story short that completely f***ed up our Christmas plans, they couldn’t come down at all. The consolation being that my daughter suggested that we celebrate Christmas in March and replicate Xmas Eve in the pub as well. I’m holding on to that thought as probably you are and every pub lover in the country.

 

[BNthree]

Hopefully I'm sounding pragmatic rather than doom and gloom but it was always going to be a long haul. Things won't start going back to normal for most people until the summer at earliest.

 

[drew]

Patel was pressed on this earlier on the basis that the Times, Mail and Telegraph, possibly by coincidence all right leaning papers, were talking about the government relaxing the rules from the beginning of April. She of course refused to confirm anything but it does look like there have been leaks from within the inner sanctum.

What the government can't do is give a date because no one knows what the figures are going to be. 1800 deaths today and the reports are the hospitals will be hitting a peak in about two weeks. Question is, how long will that peak last??

 

[dazzer6666]

Patel was pressed on this earlier on the basis that the Times, Mail and Telegraph, possibly by coincidence all right leaning papers, were talking about the government relaxing the rules from the beginning of April. She of course refused to confirm anything but it does look like there have been leaks from within the inner sanctum.

What the government can't do is give a date because no one knows what the figures are going to be. 1800 deaths today and the reports are the hospitals will be hitting a peak in about two weeks. Question is, how long will that peak last??

That’s exactly it. They should have a plan, but one that’s dependent on the numbers significantly improving and the NHS back under control. On the plus side, infection rates have been trending down for several days now, and we’re just starting to see (perhaps) a levelling out of hospitalisations which you’d expect a couple of weeks after infection rates start to drop. Death rate will follow within another 2 weeks as they are suggesting. Combine this with the vacc programme and it’s not too difficult to see the improving trends speeding up pretty rapidly in 2-3 weeks time - making end March/early April realistic for the start of relaxing of the restrictions.

 

[Barham's tash]

That’s exactly it. They should have a plan, but one that’s dependent on the numbers significantly improving and the NHS back under control. On the plus side, infection rates have been trending down for several days now, and we’re just starting to see (perhaps) a levelling out of hospitalisations which you’d expect a couple of weeks after infection rates start to drop. Death rate will follow within another 2 weeks as they are suggesting. Combine this with the vacc programme and it’s not too difficult to see the improving trends speeding up pretty rapidly in 2-3 weeks time - making end March/early April realistic for the start of relaxing of the restrictions.

I’d like to hope so however the government’s change in strategy to administering second doses 12 instead of 3 weeks after the first dose means that we have to navigate an additional 3 months where it’s theoretically possible that those immunised are still carrying a 50% risk of still contracting the virus if out mingling in non lockdown conditions therefore it all depends whether the new highly transmissible strain has abated or hospitals are sufficiently unclogged so that they can cope with a possible 50% uptick in the most vulnerable cases. So many variables for the government to juggle which let’s face it isn’t their strong point.

 

[crodonilson]

No chance pubs will be open by Easter, if we're very lucky and things go extremely well perhaps within a toughened up tier system some areas will be able to mix with others within the rule of 6 outdoors and perhaps some non essential retail might be reopening in some areas with lower rates around that time. Things will have to all go to plan before then though and seeing how covid has unravelled so far I'd expect a few hiccups between now and end of March.

 

[East Staffs Gull]

Greene King aren’t expecting to open their pubs before the end of April at the earliest.

 

[dazzer6666]

I’d like to hope so however the government’s change in strategy to administering second doses 12 instead of 3 weeks after the first dose means that we have to navigate an additional 3 months where it’s theoretically possible that those immunised are still carrying a 50% risk of still contracting the virus if out mingling in non lockdown conditions therefore it all depends whether the new highly transmissible strain has abated or hospitals are sufficiently unclogged so that they can cope with a possible 50% uptick in the most vulnerable cases. So many variables for the government to juggle which let’s face it isn’t their strong point.

Yep, could happen - equally, it may be that one dose is sufficient to prevent serious illness (as is currently believed) so whilst people may get poorly, they generally won’t get hospitalised......

Interesting how this plays out.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

British Summer Time kicks in on March 28th so perhaps they will allow a few beer gardens to open when that happens.

 

[TugWilson]

I'm sure I read or heard recently that once the national lockdown ends everyone goes straight into tier 4.

We are lucky with relatively low cases , but information is hard to come by . A couple of friends deliver food parcels to the elderly and are generally kept in the " local loop " , but to be honest most is speculation . As has been said already by a few , things change quickly , but the optimistic among us are hoping for May bank holiday . But i`m with you , the tier system will be the way they go . Keep safe and all the best

PS . Don`t forget to stay clear of palace fans as they still carry diseases as yet unidentified

 

[dazzer6666]

No chance pubs will be open by Easter, if we're very lucky and things go extremely well perhaps within a toughened up tier system some areas will be able to mix with others within the rule of 6 outdoors and perhaps some non essential retail might be reopening in some areas with lower rates around that time. Things will have to all go to plan before then though and seeing how covid has unravelled so far I'd expect a few hiccups between now and end of March.

Agreed. Think we could sit inside a pub for a meal in Tier 2.........reaching that’s going to be min 6 weeks after we start relaxing restrictions I reckon (3 tiers, 2 weeks each at best), so at least mid April if we start early March. T4 early March, T3 end March, T2 mid April, T1 end April a best case scenario in my mind and likely to be slower.

 

[warmleyseagull]

They wont make Xmas mistake twice so anticipate Easter at home or, at best, meet outside. As a cafe owners in rural Dorset with low infection rate and a low Tier, we reckon we might just be allowed to open outside by Easter.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Whilst out shopping (essential and nearby!)) l saw my local pub landlord. After exchanging pleasantries I asked him when did he think he’d be reopening. Not until May at the earliest he replied. So, there you have it.

P.S. Unless of course anyone else can dispute this or offer any other words of hope and encouragement in these dark days.

Your landlord is no wiser or less informed than you & I. He may select when he's opening but the bigger businesses haven't made a decision yet.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Your landlord is no wiser or less informed than you & I. He may select when he's opening but the bigger businesses haven't made a decision yet.

He can only select when he wants to open when he's allowed to by the Gov. Even they don't know yet.

 

[Lethargic]

Total speculation on my part but I think the weather could have an influence on relaxation for Easter, by then vaccinations will be moving through the groups and more and more younger people will have been vaccinated coupled with improving weather(?) and a desperation to get out will this create a growing attitude of I've been vaccinated sod the lockdown? The Government might see some relaxation as a way of controlling this for example pubs can serve outside?

As I said pure speculation but by Easter many people will be going stir crazy and some sort of pressure release might be necessary but for me if the schools go back after Feb after term then that will be a guide that lockdown will start to relax but its gonna be a slower process than many would like.

 

[Notters]

Easter they will open, whether that's after the bank Holiday though, who knows? Just my opinion.

So your opinion is that they may or may not be open at Easter?

 

[mwrpoole]

Pure speculation based on the vaccine programme and the Govt not wanting to be bitten again. If the target is met and all over 70's + clinically extremely vulnerable are vaccinated by 15th Feb, given the 21 day activation period then they are all 'safe' from 8th March. Do the Govt then start relaxing the rules on the basis that the age groups requiring hospitalisation are vaccinated and although cases might rise in the u70's it's not really a concern as they'll just need to stay at home and recover.

I doubt it, but there will a lot of MP's pushing for change. I do think schools are a hot topic and there will a big push to get them back after Easter. So anything that might risk that happening won't happen. I suspect teachers will be vaccinated early on once the over 50's have been done. So pubs opening in May might not be too far off the mark.

 

[dazzer6666]

Pure speculation based on the vaccine programme and the Govt not wanting to be bitten again. If the target is met and all over 70's + clinically extremely vulnerable are vaccinated by 15th Feb, given the 21 day activation period then they are all 'safe' from 8th March. Do the Govt then start relaxing the rules on the basis that the age groups requiring hospitalisation are vaccinated and although cases might rise in the u70's it's not really a concern as they'll just need to stay at home and recover.

I doubt it, but there will a lot of MP's pushing for change. I do think schools are a hot topic and there will a big push to get them back after Easter. So anything that might risk that happening won't happen. I suspect teachers will be vaccinated early on once the over 50's have been done. So pubs opening in May might not be too far off the mark.

‘Starting’ to relax the rules can be cautious so I think that’s quite likely. Schools first, then to Tier 4 initially (not massively better than lockdown) but would be at least throwing the population a carrot........stick to this, we’ll review every week and if the numbers keep tumbling we’ll drop you back another Tier. Take the piss and send the numbers back up and the opposite happens so an ‘up to you to make this work and escape restrictions’ kind of approach. Would suit the gov to put responsibility on the population.

 

[Mellotron]

‘Starting’ to relax the rules can be cautious so I think that’s quite likely. Schools first, then to Tier 4 initially (not massively better than lockdown) but would be at least throwing the population a carrot........stick to this, we’ll review every week and if the numbers keep tumbling we’ll drop you back another Tier. Take the piss and send the numbers back up and the opposite happens so an ‘up to you to make this work and escape restrictions’ kind of approach. Would suit the gov to put responsibility on the population.

I agree that regional relaxations should be based on metrics (hospital capacity, case numbers), not dates.

Gives motivation for everyone to stick with the current rules, whereas dates are arbitrary and can't know exactly how metrics will be looking prior to the time.

 

[el punal]

Your landlord is no wiser or less informed than you & I. He may select when he's opening but the bigger businesses haven't made a decision yet.

Absolutely, but he’s only passing on what he’s been told by the brewery, worst case scenario if you like. It’s as random as trying to predict where the Albion will finish in the table at the end of the season - all of us hoping for the best but aware that the shit could hit the fan as well.