[News] Lockdown lifting - when?

[Justice]

In my view the amount traffic escalated further today in and around Brighton.

The scientific officers at the 5pm press briefings just gently ask us to refrain from driving, when they mention travel is increasing. Very half-hearted, possibly not wanting to impinge too much on personal liberties and relatively content that the vast majority comply, not overly concerned that increasing numbers do give two fingers to the lockdown.

Some other nations have had and still have very stringent laws, eg in Ireland where it’s a criminal offence (since 1 April) to travel further than 2km from home without proof that it’s for an essential purpose.

Would us awkward Brits have tolerated such a law?

IMO this is a half hearted lockdown and we will end up with the highest death toll in Europe.

 

[Justice]

Those 'evil Tories' .....

I would change evil for imbecile.

 

[atfc village]

Any island has a natural advantage in preventing an outbreak ... as long as they can move nimbly. They did, we didn't

Hindsite is great ,but to let Brits return from Wuhan was pure madness and anywhere in the world.

 

[BN41Albion]

IMO this is a half hearted lockdown and we will end up with the highest death toll in Europe.

Who knows. Its impossible to say at the moment; there will be second, third maybe even fourth waves. Perhaps in the long run our more half hearted lockdown will work out positively, comparatively speaking .

We just don't know yet. Like with Sweden's approach. It'll only be a lot, lot further down the line that we can really start to compare, and even then it won't be easy to what with wildly different demographics, densities, etc

 

[Bodian]

I have a feeling they will look at a further 3 weeks after next week to coincide with the end of the May Half Term. Also gives a chance to make sure the R0 stays well below R1 as this in itself is a way for the virus to be killed off.

If it is, until they can mass produce a vaccine, they will also have to make sure anyone coming from abroad after this has to go into quarantine for at least 2 weeks (like they did when they brought British Civilians back from China at the start of the outbreak there).

'Beginning of June' seems to be something organisations are coalescing around. I work for a local authority, and most of my colleagues have been furloughed, and have just been told to expect to remain so till the end of May. This seems to be the case in a few other organisations as well, so it feels like a general acceptance that this is what will happen, and in June the lockdown will 'officially' begin to be lifted. Aside from the fact that unofficially it's lifting anyway, and the Government seem fairly relaxed about it at the moment.

 

[Sorrel]

The international travel situation is going to be an interesting one to try and resolve when lifting the lockdown somewhat. New Zealand had it easier as they are further away from anywhere else; I'm not sure we could replicate what they did even if we had tried to. A better example is probably Denmark, which have land crossings (well, bridge in once case) to two other European countries.

What they did in Denmark was to close the borders to any non-Danish visitors. The only way we could do that would be to do it in conjunction with the Republic of Ireland and I would be quite surprised if they co-operated with us; but if they did it might be possible to deny entry to everyone non British or Irish. Ports would have to stay open for freight, but passengers on ferries outside the British Isles would need to be stopped and/or turned back on arrival.

I'm not sure how the foreign passport holding population of Denmark compares to the UK, but I suspect there is a higher percentage in the UK than Denmark and it could cause problems. I don't think it's a route the government want to go down and would prefer to handle a low level of disease than try and remove it entirely through more extreme measure: after all, what's Denmark's plan for six months from now?

But this is the sort of thing that will need to be addressed as the lockdown gets lifted.

 

[pb21]

In my view the amount traffic escalated further today in and around Brighton.

The scientific officers at the 5pm press briefings just gently ask us to refrain from driving, when they mention travel is increasing. Very half-hearted, possibly not wanting to impinge too much on personal liberties and relatively content that the vast majority comply, not overly concerned that increasing numbers do give two fingers to the lockdown.

Some other nations have had and still have very stringent laws, eg in Ireland where it’s a criminal offence (since 1 April) to travel further than 2km from home without proof that it’s for an essential purpose.

Would us awkward Brits have tolerated such a law?

IMO, based on my daily excersise, the amount of traffic on the roads has been ramping up as quick as the number of Covid-19 tests the past couple of weeks.

 

[Winker]

The Government have stated quite openly and repeatedly that you can leave home and go to work if you can't work from home. When people have worked out that they can go to work as normal, then the lock-down will come to an end.

 

[Weststander]

IMO this is a half hearted lockdown and we will end up with the highest death toll in Europe.

I think it has been a watered down version. There are so many belligerent, or awkward, or stubborn, or crafty folk in this country, this was the best we could achieve imho. Throughout I’ve seen many respectable, middle class families in our part of the county, completely ignoring the law/rules eg grandparents round almost daily, families gathering for walks, today 10 lads going on a bike ride together on the South Downs Way with no attempt to distance. Sneakily done away from city centres and the seafront, these stories pass the media by. These breaches cause the virus to spread to more people.

More people will undoubtedly die and have died from the UK peoples lockdown psyche.

Death tolls - epidemiologists across the globe agree that excess death calculations are the only true measure of all pandemic deaths. We’ll have to wait a long time for that data between countries. My own guess is that Spain and Italy will have shocking figures, they’ve struggled to bury their dead. In the maelstrom, they’ve not had a chance to worry about collating comprehensive stats.

 

[Weststander]

The Government have stated quite openly and repeatedly that you can leave home and go to work if you can't work from home. When people have worked out that they can go to work as normal, then the lock-down will come to an end.

It’s already happening.

I have friends who hated WFH, they’re back at their work by choice.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

It’s already happening.

I have friends who hated WFH, they’re back at their work by choice.

I'd say that was pretty selfish imo. Putting economics before others safety is poor. Their companies should not be allowing this either.

 

[Weststander]

I'd say that was pretty selfish imo. Putting economics before others safety is poor. Their companies should not be allowing this either.

They were fully paid throughout, just hated working from home.

The companies if anything wanted it more.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I think it has been a watered down version. There are so many belligerent, or awkward, or stubborn, or crafty folk in this country, this was the best we could achieve imho. Throughout I’ve seen many respectable, middle class families in our part of the county, completely ignoring the law/rules eg grandparents round almost daily, families gathering for walks, today 10 lads going on a bike ride together on the South Downs Way with no attempt to distance. Sneakily done away from city centres and the seafront, these stories pass the media by. These breaches cause the virus to spread to more people.

More people will undoubtedly die and have died from the UK peoples lockdown psyche.

Death tolls - epidemiologists across the globe agree that excess death calculations are the only true measure of all pandemic deaths. We’ll have to wait a long time for that data between countries. My own guess is that Spain and Italy will have shocking figures, they’ve struggled to bury their dead. In the maelstrom, they’ve not had a chance to worry about collating comprehensive stats.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1256311502744752140?s=21

The data from the FT here would back your guess up.

 

[Saunders]

I think it has been a watered down version. There are so many belligerent, or awkward, or stubborn, or crafty folk in this country, this was the best we could achieve imho. Throughout I’ve seen many respectable, middle class families in our part of the county, completely ignoring the law/rules eg grandparents round almost daily, families gathering for walks, today 10 lads going on a bike ride together on the South Downs Way with no attempt to distance. Sneakily done away from city centres and the seafront, these stories pass the media by. These breaches cause the virus to spread to more people.

More people will undoubtedly die and have died from the UK peoples lockdown psyche.

Death tolls - epidemiologists across the globe agree that excess death calculations are the only true measure of all pandemic deaths. We’ll have to wait a long time for that data between countries. My own guess is that Spain and Italy will have shocking figures, they’ve struggled to bury their dead. In the maelstrom, they’ve not had a chance to worry about collating comprehensive stats.

I read about the care home situation in Spain at their peak and that is horrific once they add those figures it will be very messy. There will be idiots but as long as they are the minority the R stays well below 1 we can start to get back to normal gradually.

 

[Weststander]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1256311502744752140?s=21

The data from the FT here would back your guess up.

Cheers, a great link, very interesting graphs. Spain’s excess deaths tally within a 47m population, compared to:
UK 67m
France 67m
Italy 60m.

Germany obviously, but also Denmark, the ‘star performers’ of western Europe. Norway fantastic, but helped by a very low population density.