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[Politics] Liz Truss defending S.W. Norfolk seat July 4th.



Sorry to bang on about the Norfolk aspect of this but it really is an historic result for Labour here - “Overnight, the county has gone from having just a single Labour MP in a sea of blue, to having five parties represented in Westminster.”

That’s a notional 27.85% swing from Conservative to Labour.


Appreciate that much of the Labour vote is a result of anti-Tory sentiment but locally, it is as much about the electorate wanting an MP that actually engages with the community so hopefully Terry will get more than one term.
Yup, a very different Norfolk political map this morning. Unfortunately we here in Broadland and Fakenham still have Jerome Mayhew. Last time round he got just under 34k votes with 59% of the vote. This time around his majority was down to just under 1000 with 16,322 votes
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,013
just spotted there was a local farmer Independent here, hoovered up 6k votes.
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,902
just spotted there was a local farmer Independent here, hoovered up 6k votes.
Yes, James Bagge ex-Tory, ex-army, ex-Barrister, rich land owner, ex-high sheriff - perfect profile for the land owning gentry of South Norfolk - unfortunately not realising perhaps in terms of overall voter demographic throughout the whole constituency , that is quite a niche group. Vast tracts of agricultural land doesn’t translate into voters.

Busy Counting SW Norfolk votes in Lynn
IMG_1179.jpeg
 
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MJsGhost

Oooh Matron, I'm an
NSC Patron
Jun 26, 2009
5,022
East
Yes, James Bagge ex-Tory, ex-army, ex-Barrister, rich land owner, ex-high sherif - perfect profile for the land owning gentry of South Norfolk - unfortunately not realising perhaps in terms of overall voter demographic throughout the whole constituency , that is quite a niche group. Vast tracks of agricultural land doesn’t translate into voters.

Busy Counting SW Norfolk votes in Lynn
View attachment 185218
He did a marvellous job splitting the vote though!
:clap:
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,902
Yup, a very different Norfolk political map this morning. Unfortunately we here in Broadland and Fakenham still have Jerome Mayhew. Last time round he got just under 34k votes with 59% of the vote. This time around his majority was down to just under 1000 with 16,322 votes
Disappointing for you - but you halved his majority- the margins were very small everywhere (except South Norwich which was the only Labour seat to start with but think the share of the vote went down even there as Greens increased their share of the vote by around 6,000)

 
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Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,263
Uckfield
145 Con feels generous to me. Expecting somewhere 100-125 personally, and if it's outside that range I'm actually expecting it to be lower - I just think they're position in so many seats is weak.
1. Nailed it! (lacked the shy-Tories and a little tactical voting strength across the board to realise the "lower" result, but they were never getting anywhere near 145).

2. The state of that typo ... "their", not "they're", ffs.
 


Ethelwulf

Well-known member
Apr 6, 2020
2,263
West Worthing
Even in the seats the tories held on in , the majority have been slashed . If labour does a good job the tories could get fewer mps in 2029
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,263
Uckfield
Even in the seats the tories held on in , the majority have been slashed . If labour does a good job the tories could get fewer mps in 2029
I hope Farage winning a seat will result in people seeing through him over the next 5 years. If that happens, the Reform vote will collapse and go back to Conservative. Starmer needs to lead a very strong government so that the next election they're actually winning a larger vote share, because the majority they've won this time is very weak should the right-wing vote de-fracture.
 




Ethelwulf

Well-known member
Apr 6, 2020
2,263
West Worthing
I hope Farage winning a seat will result in people seeing through him over the next 5 years. If that happens, the Reform vote will collapse and go back to Conservative. Starmer needs to lead a very strong government so that the next election they're actually winning a larger vote share, because the majority they've won this time is very weak should the right-wing vote de-fracture.
I agree it’s a sandcastle landslide and could be washed away but the tories are in such a state with only 121 mps even after labour was smashed in 2019 they had nearly 100 more
The nightmare for us all is for some nut job to win the Tory leadership and unite with reform
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,013
Even in the seats the tories held on in , the majority have been slashed . If labour does a good job the tories could get fewer mps in 2029
it'll take some miracle for Starmer to improve seats in next election. if he raises revenues to fund material increases in spending, will be accused of lies; if he doesn't improve service he'll face disappointed public. also has to manage the perceptions on immigration, make changes to energy without large cost increase to public. these things are virtually impossible. doubt there'll be some sudden reversal, more likely steady as you go and a small decline next time. what he does have, is license to go futher and risk a chunk of losses with a second parliament more than likely.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,263
Uckfield
I agree it’s a sandcastle landslide and could be washed away but the tories are in such a state with only 121 mps even after labour was smashed in 2019 they had nearly 100 more
The nightmare for us all is for some nut job to win the Tory leadership and unite with reform
Yeah, I suspect the Tories will find it much harder to win back the seats they've lost to the Lib Dems. LD's have a chance now to really consolidate their hold, could potentially even target increasing their seats at the next election if they can have a solid run through the next 5 years.
 






vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,272
Portillo was hugely disliked at the time. But to his great credit, he was humble enough to realise that he’d made mistakes and managed to reinvent himself as a television trainspotter. I have no doubts that Portillo the TV personality is a lot nicer than Portillo the politician.
Yes, he completely rehabilitated himself with his railway journeys...very personable and even touches on some quute left wing historical details...Truss however is another creature altogether.

She seems bemused to be anywhere, like a 9 month old baby in an adult body, a Chancey Gardener for those that remember Being There. Even standing up seems amusing to Liz.

I think she will just fade slowly away now that she has lost her only job.
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
12,109
Yes, he completely rehabilitated himself with his railway journeys...very personable and even touches on some quute left wing historical details...Truss however is another creature altogether.

She seems bemused to be anywhere, like a 9 month old baby in an adult body, a Chancey Gardener for those that remember Being There. Even standing up seems amusing to Liz.

I think she will just fade slowly away now that she has lost her only job.
She will f*** off to the states and try to reinvent herself again - and fail.
 






Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,902




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