[Politics] Lib Dems Win North Shropshire By-Election

[Pavilionaire]

This is a remarkable result and has made my day. Even leaving aside Johnson's inept leadership the Lib Dems deserve credit for a perfectly-targeted campaign.

In 2019 Helen Morgan - the new MP - came third in the same seat with just 5,643 votes. Even then that represented a 4.7% improvement on 2017.

However, I am cautious about the future:

1. Turnout was down by 20,000 and the Tory vote was down by 23,000. I expect there will be a strong correlation between those 2 figures.

2. Labour voters in this seats sussed that they needed to vote tactically. In absolute terms their vote fell by 9,000 while Lib Dems rose by c. 12,000 so - again - a strong correlation between those figures.

3. My biggest worry is Labour's blind spot over an electoral alliance with other parties on the left. I wince every time I hear them say "we won't do deals" - and I've heard Shadow Cabinet Ministers David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds both say it in result days.

a) Scotland is lost to the SNP
b) The deteriorating environment is sure to boost future Green Party votes
c) The Lib Dems have in Ed Davey a better leader than Jo Swinson and they are buoyed by great results in Chesham & Amersham and now North Shropshire.

These are 3 potential partners all on the up. Labour could sell themselves as a party who can do business with other parties, a party of national interest. I was impressed by Starmer voting with the government over recent lockdown measures - I think this shows some statesmanship. However, he needs to lose his hubris and should accept the political reality that if he wants a Labour majority then - like Cameron - he must be prepared to be the largest party in a coalition first.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Coalition works? Rubbish! Just look at German…….. oh!

If we had proportional representation and coalition governments, I am positive we would be in a far better state than we are now in every way, nullifying the extreme regardless of which side it is coming from.

Yes. I’m sick of all the party politics. Work together and sort the ****ing country out.

 

[Audax]

This is a remarkable result and has made my day. Even leaving aside Johnson's inept leadership the Lib Dems deserve credit for a perfectly-targeted campaign.

In 2019 Helen Morgan - the new MP - came third in the same seat with just 5,643 votes. Even then that represented a 4.7% improvement on 2017.

However, I am cautious about the future:

1. Turnout was down by 20,000 and the Tory vote was down by 23,000. I expect there will be a strong correlation between those 2 figures.

2. Labour voters in this seats sussed that they needed to vote tactically. In absolute terms their vote fell by 9,000 while Lib Dems rose by c. 12,000 so - again - a strong correlation between those figures.

3. My biggest worry is Labour's blind spot over an electoral alliance with other parties on the left. I wince every time I hear them say "we won't do deals" - and I've heard Shadow Cabinet Ministers David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds both say it in result days.

a) Scotland is lost to the SNP
b) The deteriorating environment is sure to boost future Green Party votes
c) The Lib Dems have in Ed Davey a better leader than Jo Swinson and they are buoyed by great results in Chesham & Amersham and now North Shropshire.

These are 3 potential partners all on the up. Labour could sell themselves as a party who can do business with other parties, a party of national interest. I was impressed by Starmer voting with the government over recent lockdown measures - I think this shows some statesmanship. However, he needs to lose his hubris and should accept the political reality that if he wants a Labour majority then - like Cameron - he must be prepared to be the largest party in a coalition first.

The one counter to that is that historically a strong Lib Dems has often been beneficial to Labour, in that the Lib Dems draw off Tory voters who would never vote Tory and in doing so enable Labour to squeak home under FPTP.

That hasn't been relevant in recent memory as Tories moved right, and Lib Dems have as a result been seen as a left-of-centre party due to the weird politics of the last 10 years. But it feels like the LibDems are getting themselves back on the radar as a potential viable choice for voters who are naturally right-leaning but don't want to support the Tories. If that happens, Starmer doesn't need to do a deal with the Lib Dems to benefit from them being stronger. All he needs is for the Lib Dems to be strong enough amongst Tory-disaffected voters for the Lib Dems to win a few seats that Labour has no chance in and erode the Tory vote in seats where Labour are "close enough".

The Tory majority looks huge in terms of seats, but an awful lot of those seats will fall with even a small shift in the political geography. Think we might be seeing the shoots of that happening.

 

[The Clamp]

I get it's unusual, but it happens. With 3 years to run it means very little, if it was 3 months to run I would understand the excitement.

Sent from my moto g(6) play using Tapatalk

It’s not everything. It’s not nothing.

It has more implications for Johnson than it does the wider party. Potentially.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The one counter to that is that historically a strong Lib Dems has often been beneficial to Labour, in that the Lib Dems draw off Tory voters who would never vote Tory and in doing so enable Labour to squeak home under FPTP.

That hasn't been relevant in recent memory as Tories moved right, and Lib Dems have as a result been seen as a left-of-centre party due to the weird politics of the last 10 years. But it feels like the LibDems are getting themselves back on the radar as a potential viable choice for voters who are naturally right-leaning but don't want to support the Tories. If that happens, Starmer doesn't need to do a deal with the Lib Dems to benefit from them being stronger. All he needs is for the Lib Dems to be strong enough amongst Tory-disaffected voters for the Lib Dems to win a few seats that Labour has no chance in and erode the Tory vote in seats where Labour are "close enough".

The Tory majority looks huge in terms of seats, but an awful lot of those seats will fall with even a small shift in the political geography. Think we might be seeing the shoots of that happening.

I take your point but what I see that could possibly pan out is another 2010 scenario when the Lib Dems were strong and the maths was Labour 258, Lib Dems 57 (so 315 combined) with Tories on 306. Are Labour still going to be the party that "don't do deals" then?

It is much better to be honest with the electorate and get them prepared for potential coalition so that when that outcome presents itself the transition to coalition is that much more straightforward. Compare that to the Tory / Lib Dem coalition where the Tories stitched them up over tuition fees, opposed the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum and undermined the Lib Dems continuously.

If the Lib Dems do nick seats of the Tories and the SNP remain strong then it would be virtually numerically impossible for Labour to win a parliamentary majority - there are still too many Tory voters committed to giving Brexit more time to work.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

This is a remarkable result and has made my day. Even leaving aside Johnson's inept leadership the Lib Dems deserve credit for a perfectly-targeted campaign.

In 2019 Helen Morgan - the new MP - came third in the same seat with just 5,643 votes. Even then that represented a 4.7% improvement on 2017.

However, I am cautious about the future:

1. Turnout was down by 20,000 and the Tory vote was down by 23,000. I expect there will be a strong correlation between those 2 figures.

2. Labour voters in this seats sussed that they needed to vote tactically. In absolute terms their vote fell by 9,000 while Lib Dems rose by c. 12,000 so - again - a strong correlation between those figures.

3. My biggest worry is Labour's blind spot over an electoral alliance with other parties on the left. I wince every time I hear them say "we won't do deals" - and I've heard Shadow Cabinet Ministers David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds both say it in result days.

a) Scotland is lost to the SNP
b) The deteriorating environment is sure to boost future Green Party votes
c) The Lib Dems have in Ed Davey a better leader than Jo Swinson and they are buoyed by great results in Chesham & Amersham and now North Shropshire.

These are 3 potential partners all on the up. Labour could sell themselves as a party who can do business with other parties, a party of national interest. I was impressed by Starmer voting with the government over recent lockdown measures - I think this shows some statesmanship. However, he needs to lose his hubris and should accept the political reality that if he wants a Labour majority then - like Cameron - he must be prepared to be the largest party in a coalition first.

I read yesterday, that it is a rule in Labour to put up a candidate for every consituency. The rule would need to be changed at the party conference. Having said that, Labour didn't do very much campaigning in North Shropshire and many Labour supporters let it be known, on social media, they were lending their votes to the LD.


There is talk of the 1922 committee telling Tory backbenchers they can send emails over the Christmas period if they feel they want a vote of No Confidence in Johnson. One certainly has so 54 to go.

 

[Dick Head]

Labour party members overwhelmingly backed PR at their last conference but were thwarted by the unions. Since then Unite, Britain’s largest trade union, have voted to support PR in Westminster elections. They are also cutting political donations to the Labour party saying money would be better spent on union campaigns. There is a glimmer of hope but you just can't see the Great British Public getting on board with such a terrifying change to the status quo.

 

[Wardy's twin]

This is a remarkable result and has made my day. Even leaving aside Johnson's inept leadership the Lib Dems deserve credit for a perfectly-targeted campaign.

In 2019 Helen Morgan - the new MP - came third in the same seat with just 5,643 votes. Even then that represented a 4.7% improvement on 2017.

However, I am cautious about the future:

1. Turnout was down by 20,000 and the Tory vote was down by 23,000. I expect there will be a strong correlation between those 2 figures.

2. Labour voters in this seats sussed that they needed to vote tactically. In absolute terms their vote fell by 9,000 while Lib Dems rose by c. 12,000 so - again - a strong correlation between those figures.

3. My biggest worry is Labour's blind spot over an electoral alliance with other parties on the left. I wince every time I hear them say "we won't do deals" - and I've heard Shadow Cabinet Ministers David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds both say it in result days.

a) Scotland is lost to the SNP
b) The deteriorating environment is sure to boost future Green Party votes
c) The Lib Dems have in Ed Davey a better leader than Jo Swinson and they are buoyed by great results in Chesham & Amersham and now North Shropshire.

These are 3 potential partners all on the up. Labour could sell themselves as a party who can do business with other parties, a party of national interest. I was impressed by Starmer voting with the government over recent lockdown measures - I think this shows some statesmanship. However, he needs to lose his hubris and should accept the political reality that if he wants a Labour majority then - like Cameron - he must be prepared to be the largest party in a coalition first.

Mine too - this country will retain a Tory government if Labour fail to do deals with the other parties. The Tory game will be to keep BJ in power for a bit longer and then make a change - possibly Hunt and say the have learnt from the mistake that is Boris. Hunt being their best option as he has become distanced from the current Leadership which means Rabb is tainted. Gove might sneak in as might RS if the economy remains in one piece.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Really surprised that so many are getting so excited by a midterm by-election.

Desperate scenes.

Precisely. Governments never win by-elections

Also, even though I'm a labour party member I just can't get into this ''let's change the elecoral system because I don't have the government I want and therefore it's not democratic" bullshit. Boris won fair and square. People will get a chance to boot him out if they wish in 3 years. What's wrong with a bit of old fashioned patience?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Precisely. Governments never win by-elections

Also, even though I'm a labour party member I just can't get into this ''let's change the elecoral system because I don't have the government I want and therefore it's not democratic" bullshit. Boris won fair and square. People will get a chance to boot him out if they wish in 3 years. What's wrong with a bit of old fashioned patience?

Or: what's wrong with a bit of urgency to reject and eject the worst government in living memory which on a daily basis chooses to wreck the economy, denude our rights, poison our political culture and debase good governance?

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Rural North Shropshire, who voted 60% leave now vote for the most anti EU of all the parties.
I notice that the worse than useless to the UK economy Australian deal that is a kick in the nuts for our farmers, was not announced until the polls shut, a deal that hugely favours Australia.
And still Johnson is not accepting responsibility instead blaming the media for reporting all of his stupid mistakes, one after the other, something the public apparently did not need to know.
Johnson is like a spoilt toddler, sure some will still get 'right behind Boris' mostly unemployed racists and stubborn doddery old pensioners who actually still believe that this result, by election or not, has actually no meaning at all.
There is stupid, then there is bat shit mental stupid.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Or: what's wrong with a bit of urgency to reject and eject the worst government in living memory which on a daily basis chooses to wreck the economy, denude our rights, poison our political culture and debase good governance?

in your opinion, many would say the opposite.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The one counter to that is that historically a strong Lib Dems has often been beneficial to Labour, in that the Lib Dems draw off Tory voters who would never vote Tory and in doing so enable Labour to squeak home under FPTP.

That hasn't been relevant in recent memory as Tories moved right, and Lib Dems have as a result been seen as a left-of-centre party due to the weird politics of the last 10 years. But it feels like the LibDems are getting themselves back on the radar as a potential viable choice for voters who are naturally right-leaning but don't want to support the Tories. If that happens, Starmer doesn't need to do a deal with the Lib Dems to benefit from them being stronger. All he needs is for the Lib Dems to be strong enough amongst Tory-disaffected voters for the Lib Dems to win a few seats that Labour has no chance in and erode the Tory vote in seats where Labour are "close enough".

The Tory majority looks huge in terms of seats, but an awful lot of those seats will fall with even a small shift in the political geography. Think we might be seeing the shoots of that happening.

Maybe it's just because I support (the present version of) labour, but I must confess that I can't even name the leader of the liberals, and couldn't even be sure if they are still called the 'liberal democrats' till their name was mentioned on the radio a minute ago.

I'd never 'vote for a coalition' but I'd be relaxed about one if it made some sort of sense after a general election. I am not interested in whether parties 'rule out' coalitions before elections. That's partly hubris, and partly done to avoid being accused of 'running scared' before an election.

I remain surprised every time I realise that people still don't understand how things work in the UK.

And I maintain that most of the country have little idea that Boris is supposedly in a crisis.

Beware the echo chamber

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Or: what's wrong with a bit of urgency to reject and eject the worst government in living memory which on a daily basis chooses to wreck the economy, denude our rights, poison our political culture and debase good governance?

The only person who can call a general election (unless he loses a vote of no confidence with his own MPs voting against him) is Boris.

I would be thrilled to see the back of the oaf, but I am not in a position to hurry up his removal, even if I scream and scream like Violet Elizabeth Bott.

 

[johanngull]

I see one candidate, independent Yolande Kenwood, managed 3 votes. Assuming she voted for herself that is some going!

The other two thought they were in Argos ordering a Food Processor for xmas.

 

[WATFORD zero]

in your opinion, many would say the opposite.

But, it appears from both NSC and the country as a whole, nowhere near as many as 2 years ago

 

[MJsGhost]

Maybe it's just because I support (the present version of) labour, but I must confess that I can't even name the leader of the liberals, and couldn't even be sure if they are still called the 'liberal democrats' till their name was mentioned on the radio a minute ago.

I'd never 'vote for a coalition' but I'd be relaxed about one if it made some sort of sense after a general election. I am not interested in whether parties 'rule out' coalitions before elections. That's partly hubris, and partly done to avoid being accused of 'running scared' before an election.

I remain surprised every time I realise that people still don't understand how things work in the UK.

And I maintain that most of the country have little idea that Boris is supposedly in a crisis.

Beware the echo chamber

Take some heart from a pair of unlikely 'heroes'... if Ant & Dec are putting the boot in, you can be sure that, for once, a much bigger proportion of the country is aware that there are problems at no 10.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

in your opinion, many would say the opposite.

You think you are in a crowd, when evidence shows that you are almost alone.
Mmm, interesting case, as Mr Spock would say, fascinating.
There are medical people who would be very interested in taking up your case for experimental purposes.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

But, it appears from both NSC and the country as a whole, nowhere near as many as 2 years ago

I am not being dragged into the Watford political vortex.


Happy Christmas.

 

[nicko31]

You think you are in a crowd, when evidence shows that you are almost alone.
Mmm, interesting case, as Mr Spock would say, fascinating.
There are medical people who would be very interested in taking up your case for experimental purposes.

There will always be some so massively invested in the Johnson personality cult it will be difficult to climb down. They have been conned, used and abused