Less likely to go up than before the transfer window

[Simster]

I'd be delighted if 'Boro were crowned champions with one match to go of the season.

I really wouldn't.

Fine - if they had it sewn up weeks before hand, they would ease off for a game or two. But one match before the end of the season? No way would they ease off. They would simply put celebrations on hold for 7 days and do a good job.

 

[El Presidente]

I really wouldn't.

Fine - if they had it sewn up weeks before hand, they would ease off for a game or two. But one match before the end of the season? No way would they ease off. They would simply put celebrations on hold for 7 days and do a good job.

Dunno, remember when the Albion were promoted under Micky Adams? We went to Shrewsbury last day of season and the players were absolutely shitfaced from a week of celebrations, and were spanked 3-0.

Boro deserve to go up regardless of signing Rhodes, because they are the best team I've seen this season by far. If the Albion has spunked £7 million on Carlos Kickaball from Bolivian Champions Fray Bentos, as had been rumoured earlier in the window we wouldn't have been moaning, so I have no issue 'Boro splashing the cash on Rhodes.

 

[El Presidente]

We've only played 3 games since the window opened - including 2 aways - with a return of 6 points, so I'm quite surprised our chances are assessed as down at all.

Could be that the likes of Hull have done relatively better than the Albion (and 'Boro) in January, so if there probability increases it's not surprising that ours has decreased.

 

[Mr deez]

Surprised that 'Boro have dropped given their position in the table and the signings they have made. Rhodes, Ramirex, De Laet, De Sart and Sola all look like quality additions in the window.

I think most observers would say that they made signings from a position of strength. Not sure where I've heard that saying before mind.

They lost some games though.

 

[Simster]

Dunno, remember when the Albion were promoted under Micky Adams? We went to Shrewsbury last day of season and the players were absolutely shitfaced from a week of celebrations, and were spanked 3-0.

Boro deserve to go up regardless of signing Rhodes, because they are the best team I've seen this season by far. If the Albion has spunked £7 million on Carlos Kickaball from Bolivian Champions Fray Bentos, as had been rumoured earlier in the window we wouldn't have been moaning, so I have no issue 'Boro splashing the cash on Rhodes.

Indeed - I was there, and was also at Plymouth the month before when we got promotion nicely sewn up. I can't remember how much earlier we had taken the title from the cheats though, but I'm guessing it wasn't the previous week...

 

[El Presidente]

They lost some games though.

True, won two lost two.

 

[brightn'ove]

Dunno, remember when the Albion were promoted under Micky Adams? We went to Shrewsbury last day of season and the players were absolutely shitfaced from a week of celebrations, and were spanked 3-0.

Boro deserve to go up regardless of signing Rhodes, because they are the best team I've seen this season by far. If the Albion has spunked £7 million on Carlos Kickaball from Bolivian Champions Fray Bentos, as had been rumoured earlier in the window we wouldn't have been moaning, so I have no issue 'Boro splashing the cash on Rhodes.

When leicester clinched promotion in 2013-14 we spanked them 1-4 away the game after.

 

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

Boro deserve to go up regardless of signing Rhodes, because they are the best team I've seen this season by far. If the Albion has spunked £7 million on Carlos Kickaball from Bolivian Champions Fray Bentos, as had been rumoured earlier in the window we wouldn't have been moaning, so I have no issue 'Boro splashing the cash on Rhodes.

Kindof agree with this. My dislike of Boro is purely because i worked for an MD who was an UTTER **** and supported Boro, however what they did do well was get rid of all the high earners that Strachcan gave contracts to as and when and for a good two or three years they built a youngish side (always there or thereabouts under Mowbray but ultimately fell away as they didnt have the squad), now they have regrouped and are spending money. So ultimately good luck to them they appear to have done it the "right" way.

 

[lawros left foot]

Do they factor in the injuries that we have returning in the next month to six weeks? Bong coming back will be huge for us, as will a fit Kaz, and if we have stayed very much in the reckoning with all our injuries, and we have added some additional quality, how has our chances gone down? No other team in contention has lost as many first eleven players as us,ergo, none have the quality returning that we have.


Put money on us to be 2nd or 3rd, you know it makes sense

 

[8ace]

I'd be delighted if 'Boro were crowned champions with one match to go of the season.

I agree, even if they are only 90% committed that is a massive advantage for us.
They had nothing to play for in the final game of last season and it showed.

 

[Gwylan]

I'm still getting 280%.

Accepting your and Hans's suggestion of rounding means that the remaining 20% could be accounted for by dividing it among all 24 teams, splitting just over 13% between the bottom ten and dividing the remainder among the top 14 ensuring that nobody got more than half a percent, but this would need the statistically unlikely scenario that all teams who got over 1% would end with a percentage chance of X + <0.5 and could be rounded down not up.

Yeah it is 280. I can't count

I agree that there's something not right. I'm sure that rounding down will make some difference but it doesn't begin to account for that much - the calculations are totally awry somewhere

 

[MattBackHome]

http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/simulating-finishing-positions/

This looks to be from the same company and though out of date is likely to be a similar methodology for how they got to those numbers.

Interesting stuff