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[News] Kabul Explosion Being Reported Near Airport



drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,609
Burgess Hill
Again, unless you are advocating staying in the country indefinitely, how should that have been handled? I'm not actually giving in an opinion here I might add, I'm asking how someone can have a definitive opinion on the success or otherwise of the exit from such a complex chaotic situation?

No, they just needed to stay until the country was more stabilised. Too much corruption meant the army weren't being paid so no wonder they buckled.

Also, use West Germany as an example. They were there for 45 years before the Berlin wall came down.
 




KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
No, they just needed to stay until the country was more stabilised. Too much corruption meant the army weren't being paid so no wonder they buckled.

Also, use West Germany as an example. They were there for 45 years before the Berlin wall came down.

The allies left West Germany once they signed up to NATO in 1954.
 


drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,609
Burgess Hill


KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
Really! I could have sworn that both British and US armed forces were stationed in Germany, even to this day!! Think we left in 2019 but pretty sure the US are still there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Briti...ish Forces,German Bundeswehr in February 2020.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/de...-troop-withdrawal-from-germany-put-on-freeze/

Not as an occupying/active force to West Germany, the US have bases here too! Just strategic bases not involved in any domestic involvement.
 






KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
No we didn't. Two Way (or sometimes Three Way) Family Favourites was being broadcast by the BBC for troops in Germany well into the 60s.

The point being made was a comparison of allied ‘occupation’ of West Germany comparable to Afghanistan.

The allies stopped ‘occupying’ West Germany in 1955 - that is a different fact to allies retaining strategic bases in West Germany, just as the US retains strategic bases in the UK. Since 1955 these have not been occupying forces in Germany.
 




heathgate

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 13, 2015
3,858
Will that poor benighted country never be at peace? Don't think it ever has been.

Exactly, it has never been at peace... those that think so are not looking at history.... even when there was no British, Russian or Nato involvement, the tribal factions were killing each other in droves.... it has ever been thus.

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JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Has it been woefully mishandled? What is the benchmark for a evacuation in the face of a hostile regime change? The numbers the UK, the US and their allies have gotten out safely in a short period could be viewed as an incredible feat of logistics and organisation. I don't know, I'm not an expert in foreign evacuation policy and planning. I don't know what a realistic success criteria is for this, but not sure I could conclude it's woefully mishandled given just how many have been airlifted out to this point.
I would imagine the benchmark for a successful exit of Afghanistan would have initially included, leaving to your own timetable, evacuating everyone you need to in a safe controlled manner, taking all your mega $ kit home with you and zero casualties to your soldiers and civilians while also hopefully leaving behind a country in a better state than when you arrived.

At the very least the US intelligence on the capabilities of the Afghan army must have been woeful. The decision to withdraw air support further speeded up the collapse.

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KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
I would imagine the benchmark for a successful exit of Afghanistan would have initially included, leaving to your own timetable, evacuating everyone you need to in a safe controlled manner, taking all your mega $ kit home with you and zero casualties to your soldiers and civilians while also hopefully leaving behind a country in a better state than when you arrived.

At the very least the US intelligence on the capabilities of the Afghan army must have been woeful. The decision to withdraw air support further speeded up the collapse.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

But then there’s the real world of chaos, unpredictability, and terrorists.

Let’s remember governments struggle to get a smart phone app right, or place a PPE order to a legit company, let alone evacuate 150k people from a single airfield in 2 weeks.

Allied intelligence can only hypothesise about possible outcomes, with so much out of their control in all this, it was never going to be exact.

But perhaps it has been a massive failure, what I’m saying is, where is our intel to make that call? We’re just guessing. It could be a remarkable effort but our militaries and diplomats and a big success give circumstances. We surely just don’t know?

Yeah sure in an ideal world no causalities, no dramas. Not realistic though.
 


Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
The allies left West Germany once they signed up to NATO in 1954.

Nope, I was living there from 1965 to 1969, my father was in the army

One of my neighbours was also in the army and based there when he retired in 2001
 




Bry Nylon

Test your smoke alarm
Helpful Moderator
Jul 21, 2003
20,573
Playing snooker
But then there’s the real world of chaos, unpredictability, and terrorists.

Let’s remember governments struggle to get a smart phone app right, or place a PPE order to a legit company, let alone evacuate 150k people from a single airfield in 2 weeks.

Allied intelligence can only hypothesise about possible outcomes, with so much out of their control in all this, it was never going to be exact.

But perhaps it has been a massive failure, what I’m saying is, where is our intel to make that call? We’re just guessing. It could be a remarkable effort but our militaries and diplomats and a big success give circumstances. We surely just don’t know?

Yeah sure in an ideal world no causalities, no dramas. Not realistic though.

Yup. Anticipating acres of column inches over the weekend focusing on how the UK airlift has fallen short, written by journalists who'd probably struggle to book a taxi from Canary Wharf to Blackfriars in rush hour if a PA didn't do it for them.
 


KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
Nope, I was living there from 1965 to 1969, my father was in the army

One of my neighbours was also in the army and based there when he retired in 2001

Just read my subsequent posts. Allies weren’t ‘occupying’ West Germany after 1955. Completely different to having strategic bases in a country. The US have 13 bases still in the UK - they’re not to my knowledge an occupying force.
 


KeegansHairPiece

New member
Jan 28, 2016
1,829
Yup. Anticipating acres of column inches over the weekend focusing on how the UK airlift has fallen short, written by journalists who'd probably struggle to book a taxi from Canary Wharf to Blackfriars in rush hour if a PA didn't do it for them.

This is my point. There could have been a heroic Herculean effort on behalf of troops and diplomats, and all this could have been far worse than the current outcome, and yet very easy sat in the comfort of our homes to write it off as a complete disaster.
 




Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Just read my subsequent posts. Allies weren’t ‘occupying’ West Germany after 1955. Completely different to having strategic bases in a country. The US have 13 bases still in the UK - they’re not to my knowledge an occupying force.

I’d rather you admitted that the post I quoted was wrong :wink:
 


Wardy's twin

Well-known member
Oct 21, 2014
8,866
Just read my subsequent posts. Allies weren’t ‘occupying’ West Germany after 1955. Completely different to having strategic bases in a country. The US have 13 bases still in the UK - they’re not to my knowledge an occupying force.

Try getting rid of them and then you will find out the truth of the matter.
 




JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
But then there’s the real world of chaos, unpredictability, and terrorists.

Let’s remember governments struggle to get a smart phone app right, or place a PPE order to a legit company, let alone evacuate 150k people from a single airfield in 2 weeks.

Allied intelligence can only hypothesise about possible outcomes, with so much out of their control in all this, it was never going to be exact.

But perhaps it has been a massive failure, what I’m saying is, where is our intel to make that call? We’re just guessing. It could be a remarkable effort but our militaries and diplomats and a big success give circumstances. We surely just don’t know?

Yeah sure in an ideal world no causalities, no dramas. Not realistic though.
You asked what the benchmark was for a successful exit from Afghanistan. Of course in the real world events on the ground change but how anyone can view the total collapse of the hundreds of thousands strong Allied trained Afghan army and resurgence of the Taliban before we have even left while soldiers and civilians die at the airport as anything other than a humiliating, woeful, shameful exit is beyond me.

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drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,609
Burgess Hill
Just read my subsequent posts. Allies weren’t ‘occupying’ West Germany after 1955. Completely different to having strategic bases in a country. The US have 13 bases still in the UK - they’re not to my knowledge an occupying force.

Were the US an occupying force in Afghanistan though? As far as I can tell, they were there supporting the elected government. Personally, I don't see the difference. In Germany they had, as you call it, strategic basis but we all know they were there to deter an invasion from behind the iron curtain.
 


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