It's a funny ol' game...

[darkwolf666]

Managers and coaches spend hours on the training ground, month after month, planning and drilling the players into a way of playing, setting up tactics to combat the opposition and finding new ways to be creative.

Yet, it is often the purest of luck that decides games, as has been ably demonstrated in the past 48 hours.

First 90+1 minutes at The City Ground, Anthony Knockaert's mazy dribble into the box looks to have petered out, and after the ball has bounced off just about every part of his body the ball breaks for Steve Sidwell to send the Brighton contingency into delirium.

Wind forward 24 hours and a similar scenario unfolds at The Riverside, where this time at 90+4, Clayton of Middlesbrough hits a shot that was destined for the corner flag - it rather fortuitously smashes into Adomah's face (I am sure he will claim he redirected it) and bounces to an eternally grateful Forshaw, once again queue scenes of delirium....

The point is, we all have our ideas of who is the best team, who has the best tactics and manager, but sometimes it just comes down to pure and simple lady luck shining on you at the right time.

 

[pastafarian]

im sure football was designed by the devil,is this really fun?.....i mean really?

one thing im certain of though with all the managers planning re squads line ups and lucky goals there is something completely different to this current Albion squad which separates us from all the others,we have a club and player positive group belief ethic that i havnt seen for years and years........this is a proper team effort.......this surely has to be a positive in the run for promotion or maybe settling for a play off place

 

[Justice]

Have to disagree about Knockys that was pure skill not luck.

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

Have to disagree about Knockys that was pure skill not luck.

It was pure skill. Except for the bit where he stood on the ball, it bounced of a Forest player, then off Wilson, back onto Knocky's left knee, then his right knee, then directly into the path of Steve Sidwell.

 

[darkwolf666]

Have to disagree about Knockys that was pure skill not luck.

The dribble was skill, the ball running to Sidwell was luck - there was no pass intended by Knockaert, he just ran out of room, oh and skill / luck!

 

[Bedsex]

You should read The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson and David Sally. It's a fantastic book about statistics in football. One chapter describes the role of luck in football results and it is a far bigger factor than you'd imagine, largely down to the rarity of goals in a football match. It is this element of luck, in my opinion, that makes football so much more interesting than a high scoring game, such as basketball; a game where the better team wins far more frequently. As an aside, it makes it far easier supporting a team like Brighton once you know that luck is a huge factor!

 

[darkwolf666]

You should read The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson and David Sally. It's a fantastic book about statistics in football. One chapter describes the role of luck in football results and it is a far bigger factor than you'd imagine, largely down to the rarity of goals in a football match. It is this element of luck, in my opinion, that makes football so much more interesting than a high scoring game, such as basketball; a game where the better team wins far more frequently. As an aside, it makes it far easier supporting a team like Brighton once you know that luck is a huge factor!

Thanks for the tip, will look that book out, I love statistics (I know, saddo). I totally agree that football, more than many if not most sports, plays a large part - however some say you make your luck and we have been due some!

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

If you can get he ball into the opponents penalty area then the chance/luck of scoring must increase significantly - not many goals are scored by defenders from their own half.
Yet teams play the possession game where the emphasis is on "they can't score if we have the ball"

It never ceases to impress me that when a team really needs to score (like Burnley did against us in the last 10 minutes) they are capable of going up several gears in terms of goal threat.

 

[chaileyjem]

It never ceases to impress me that when a team really needs to score (like Burnley did against us in the last 10 minutes) they are capable of going up several gears in terms of goal threat.

I hope you'd include Albion this season as equally capable of such gear moves. As... as Fulham (H), Leeds (A), Charlton (H), Bristol City (H), Forest (A) have all proved.
and Forest (A) May 2014 wasn't bad either.

 

[Sweeney Todd]

It was pure skill. Except for the bit where he stood on the ball, it bounced of a Forest player, then off Wilson, back onto Knocky's left knee, then his right knee, then directly into the path of Steve Sidwell.

Knockaert rampaged into Forest’s box like a pitbull terrier with a ball balanced on its nose.

 

[StonehamPark]

Have to disagree about Knockys that was pure skill not luck.

It was pure skill. Except for the bit where he stood on the ball, it bounced of a Forest player, then off Wilson, back onto Knocky's left knee, then his right knee, then directly into the path of Steve Sidwell.

Definite skill to keep the ball that long and get past the players.
Definite luck that the ball rattled off every lower body part between the 4 players involved and deflects into Sidwell's path.

Not quite sure that the tread ON the ball was pure skill in all honesty.

 

[warmleyseagull]

You should read The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson and David Sally. It's a fantastic book about statistics in football. One chapter describes the role of luck in football results and it is a far bigger factor than you'd imagine, largely down to the rarity of goals in a football match. It is this element of luck, in my opinion, that makes football so much more interesting than a high scoring game, such as basketball; a game where the better team wins far more frequently. As an aside, it makes it far easier supporting a team like Brighton once you know that luck is a huge factor!

I read somewhere that most goals are scored at random, which fits with the idea that luck plays a great part. See http://www.soccerstatistically.com/blog/2013/7/15/goal-time-analysis.html for some analysis of goal timings, broadly supprting a random thesis.

The importance of luck is twofold: it doesn't even itself out over a season for everyone, despite the popular mantra. Take a cricket example: WIndies won ten tosses in a row up to and including T20 Final. Chances of that are over 1,000-1 yet almost certainly played a part in their success. Similarly, out of 24 teams in a division, there will be some who are luckier than others even over 46 games. Given the close margins because it is a low scoring sport and the tendency for teams to bunch (even at the extremities of the division), luck will certainly play a part. If we miss out on auto, we will point to Burnley (both games) where luck didn't favour us, conveniently forgetting MKD games where should have conceded a pen at home, and they missed one in away game; luck favoured us.

Secondly, luck feeds on itself: you actually believe you are better/worse than you are whch ever way it goes; you then 'create your own luck' as the saying goes (the opposite is true as well). I would say Albion are not (around) 40 points better this season than last; better undoubtedly but luck has played a part in creating so much better a performance. TBH, and I will probably be shot for this on here, I think the frustration of others in promo race (and some Palace fans) that we keep winning by one goal has some justification. You HAVE to be lucky in football to win 18 games by the odd goal, yet lose only two by the same margin.

 

[chaileyjem]

Definite skill to keep the ball that long and get past the players.
Definite luck that the ball rattled off every lower body part between the 4 players involved and deflects into Sidwell's path.

Not quite sure that the tread ON the ball was pure skill in all honesty.

Not luck that Sidwell tracks back to position himself ready to shoot...
Not luck that Knockeart 's dribbling has taken out 4 Forest defenders through thus leaving Sidwell (and Hemed) alone and unmarked 10 yards out.
Not luck that Sidwell, "calm as a cucumber" as Warren Aspinall put it, slots it home perfectly , unlike Lansbury who was that far out with a chance 10 yards out 10 minutes earlier and skied it.
Not luck that Bruno, our full back, has pushed hard up the pitch to create the opening.

 

[StonehamPark]

Not luck that Sidwell tracks back to position himself ready to shoot...
Not luck that Knockeart 's dribbling has taken out 4 Forest defenders through thus leaving Sidwell (and Hemed) alone and unmarked 10 yards out.
Not luck that Sidwell, "calm as a cucumber" as Warren Aspinall put it, slots it home perfectly , unlike Lansbury who was that far out with a chance 10 yards out 10 minutes earlier and skied it.
Not luck that Bruno, our full back, has pushed hard up the pitch to create the opening.

Dunno why you're quoting me?

 

[Ex-Staffs Gull]

It is like me playing golf. Hit slightly off target on an early hole, bounce out of the trees and hit the green with the next. Confidence grows, tension fades and a more positive attitude to all my subseqent shots. Flows the other way and blocked out by a tree, put the next one somewhere stupid, mumble, swear and groan putting me in a negative mood and end up with a crap round. Luck as has been said, breeds luck.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[chaileyjem]

Dunno why you're quoting me?

cos you had the fine pic !
and said that it was a lucky, in part, goal.
wasn't having a dig though...agreed some luck to it.

 

[Icy Gull]

I hope you'd include Albion this season as equally capable of such gear moves. As... as Fulham (H), Leeds (A), Charlton (H), Bristol City (H), Forest (A) have all proved.
and Forest (A) May 2014 wasn't bad either.

I take it that you are a clairvoyant Chaileyjem Petulengro?

 

[Machiavelli]

I read somewhere that most goals are scored at random, which fits with the idea that luck plays a great part. See http://www.soccerstatistically.com/blog/2013/7/15/goal-time-analysis.html for some analysis of goal timings, broadly supprting a random thesis.

The importance of luck is twofold: it doesn't even itself out over a season for everyone, despite the popular mantra. Take a cricket example: WIndies won ten tosses in a row up to and including T20 Final. Chances of that are over 1,000-1 yet almost certainly played a part in their success. Similarly, out of 24 teams in a division, there will be some who are luckier than others even over 46 games. Given the close margins because it is a low scoring sport and the tendency for teams to bunch (even at the extremities of the division), luck will certainly play a part. If we miss out on auto, we will point to Burnley (both games) where luck didn't favour us, conveniently forgetting MKD games where should have conceded a pen at home, and they missed one in away game; luck favoured us.

Secondly, luck feeds on itself: you actually believe you are better/worse than you are whch ever way it goes; you then 'create your own luck' as the saying goes (the opposite is true as well). I would say Albion are not (around) 40 points better this season than last; better undoubtedly but luck has played a part in creating so much better a performance. TBH, and I will probably be shot for this on here, I think the frustration of others in promo race (and some Palace fans) that we keep winning by one goal has some justification. You HAVE to be lucky in football to win 18 games by the odd goal, yet lose only two by the same margin.

Agree with virtually all of this, apart from the highlighted bit, which was bad technique and not bad luck: missed penalties are always worse than saved penalties in my book; that said, there's a continuum on how easy/difficult on-target penalties are to save and I'd claim that of his penalties vs Fulham and Wolves, Hemed was increasing the likelihood of them being saved, whereas his two more recent ones decreased them.

 

[chaileyjem]

I take it that you are a clairvoyant Chaileyjem Petulengro?

Ha ! I'm not sure my ageing heart could take it. but nope my fail. i was of course referring to this rather fine start to the season

.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Agree with virtually all of this, apart from the highlighted bit, which was bad technique and not bad luck: missed penalties are always worse than saved penalties in my book; that said, there's a continuum on how easy/difficult on-target penalties are to save and I'd claim that of his penalties vs Fulham and Wolves, Hemed was increasing the likelihood of them being saved, whereas his two more recent ones decreased them.

Fair point - ref not giving blatant pen to opposition is luck, missing isn't. I could have found a better example but hopefully the gist is right.