[Albion] Is the top 4 really out of reach?

[Hugo Rune]

Citeh and Arsenal are gone, Citeh punishments (if they get them) won’t hit for another decade.

Manure could slip without Eriksen and Casemiro pulling the strings but when the Palace throttler returns, I think they’ll start winning again and will maintain the gap. They always have the ref and VAR on their side.

Newcastle just don’t concede. Our best chance to catch them is if they draw too many games. This is possible.

We’d finish above Spurs if they had no Kane. Easily. I’ll enjoy the chase but I’m not confident, hopefully they’ll struggle when European football returns.

I think we can stay in the top 6 but we need two teams above us to ****-up a bit which I don’t think will happen.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

but lost 5 more.

Three of which happened immediately after we had to replace our manager mid season.

 

[Triggaaar]

Having lost Bissouma, Cucrella, Trossard and our entire management team, it'll be a huge achievement if we can finish top half.

 

[Machiavelli]

No harm in dreaming but it is a push.

In the last 5 seasons, 4th team has averaged exactly 70 points; in 4 of the seasons 72 would be enough (or 71 with superior GD). Given the dominance of Manchesters and Arsenal it is possible that 4th place might be grabbed for high 60s, i.e. double what Brighton have. 10 wins would put us in a good place, coupled with 4+draws.

Albion have done well against bottom half teams (so far have W7 D2 L1 against current bottom half), repeat that and then need around 10 points from the 5 teams above us, Brentford, Chelsea, and Fulham. That looks doable but does, I think, require our best players to continue form and avoid injury. Games against Fulham and Brentford feel like 6 pointers, more likely to cement a top 7 place than top 4, but you never know.

FWW, average points for 6th place is 62.2 over last 5 seasons (range 59-65) and 57.6 for 7th (54-62). That looks achievable but beware Fulham and Brentford ( and outside possibility of below 7th place winner of FA Cup).

Thanking you for this. What is the av points and range for fifth?

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Whether that means we make top 4 or not is up to the footballing gods and RDZ.

Blasphemy! RDZ is a footballing god.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

A deserved European ban for City would free up a slot nicely.

Until Pep throws his toys out of the pram and walks, only to be replaced by RDZ...

 

[SweatyMexican]

I think it’s unlikely, but we just need to keep winning football matches; one after the other. Consistency is the key word, one I haven’t used since our promotion season.

We can’t allow Chelsea back into this. To finish above Potter in a European spot would be downright hilarious.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Thanking you for this. What is the av points and range for fifth?

I haven't worked it out because 5th or 6th makes no difference (unless below 6th wins FA Cup); if you still wish to know, halfway between 4th and 6th is a pretty good guess.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Our first aim has to be catching Spurs, 5 points behind but two games in hand. They’ve just lost Lloris for 6-8 weeks with a knee injury which could be a big loss for them. Fraser Forster in goal for the next couple of months

 

[um bongo molongo]

Until Pep throws his toys out of the pram and walks, only to be replaced by RDZ...

God, that’s a highly plausible scenario.

 

[um bongo molongo]

Our first aim has to be catching Spurs, 5 points behind but two games in hand. They’ve just lost Lloris for 6-8 weeks with a knee injury which could be a big loss for them. Fraser Forster in goal for the next couple of months

That would be more of a hindrance if Lloris wasn’t throwing one in every other game. Might help them!
Injury to Kane however…

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

That would be more of a hindrance if Lloris wasn’t throwing one in every other game. Might help them!
Injury to Kane however…

Fraser Forster is awful though, for an absolute beast of a bloke at about 6ft 8 he has zero presence.

 

[luge]

It is not out of reach but we should remember that we will probably have a dip in form at some point, and reign it in. It will make the eventual conference league place seem far more exciting.

 

[Live by the sea]

6th would be a brilliant achievement. Look how far the club has come .

 

[Diallo]

6th would be a brilliant achievement. Look how far the club has come .

It’s grim how 6th place is now seen as an achievement in the modern day top flight division by everyone other than the billionaire cribs. It’s not right clubs enter the top flight, end up with a load of internationals and a World Cup winner, thrash the likes of Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool and so on, but yet we all know there’s no hope of any true success IE a trophy.
Football has definitely hit a stalemate in terms of competition. We’re now pretending finishing just above mid table is amazing! It’s not. No fan in 100 years time will look back at our history and be amazed at finishing 6th. Winning the southern counties league and the Charity shield on the other hand….

 

[Mental Lental]

Win our 2 games in hand and beat them at The Amex and we’ll be above Man Utd on GD.

Easy.

 

[jcdenton08]

Win our 2 games in hand and beat them at The Amex and we’ll be above Man Utd on GD.

Easy.

Yes. Simply win every game from now to the end of the season and we can make a title charge. Why didn’t everyone else think of that?

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Yes. Simply win every game from now to the end of the season and we can make a title charge. Why didn’t everyone else think of that?

I'm in.

 

[Mental Lental]

Yes. Simply win every game from now to the end of the season and we can make a title charge. Why didn’t everyone else think of that?

I know right?

 

[Mo Gosfield]

It’s grim how 6th place is now seen as an achievement in the modern day top flight division by everyone other than the billionaire cribs. It’s not right clubs enter the top flight, end up with a load of internationals and a World Cup winner, thrash the likes of Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool and so on, but yet we all know there’s no hope of any true success IE a trophy.
Football has definitely hit a stalemate in terms of competition. We’re now pretending finishing just above mid table is amazing! It’s not. No fan in 100 years time will look back at our history and be amazed at finishing 6th. Winning the southern counties league and the Charity shield on the other hand….

The PL has become a vehicle for six clubs to enjoy the spoils, get stronger and stronger, more elitist and more self-entitled. They have a 15-20 year start on most of us, building up a global fanbase, buying the best players and earning fortunes from European competition. Only mega wealth ( e.g Newcastle ) can threaten and even then it will take years to be regarded as anything but gatecrashers.
We are in Division Two of the PL. 13 or 14 teams, all with ambitions but all conscious how easy it is to fall back again. A very narrow margin between keeping your head above water or not. Any small change in dynamic ( key players sold, manager change, new owners ) can tilt the balance against you. We are overachieving for our status, like many before us. It doesn't last. You become victims of your own success. Players cannot resist the lure of more money and potential trophies to be won elsewhere.
We are playing catch-up. 70% of our history spent in the bottom two divisions. We will never be truly established in the top flight but then neither will any other club apart from the elite. The clubs that generate the main interest, here and globally. Without them, the tv companies have a less appealing package and without them, we don't get our £100m plus per year that helps us keep an advantage over those in leagues below us.
It is uncompetitive. Even when one or more of the Greedy Ones has a below par season, they are expected to bounce back in the next. Football has stood back and allowed this dominance to happen and now it is too entrenched. Unbreakable.
We are bit players, amongst the main cast, hoping one of the stars falls ill and we get our chance. If we take it, great but will it make our careers for the rest of our lives or will we be judged as plucky stand-ins? History suggests the latter.