[Albion] Is the top 4 really out of reach?

[RexCathedra]

Be careful what you wish for. I'm not concerned about the pilings-on if we finish mid-table...

I'm concerned with the fabric of the space-time continuum.
You can't disturb natural order of the universe with impunity.

Some teams are born booted and spurred and ready to ride.
Some teams are bon saddled and bitted and meant to be ridden.

Mess with that at your peril!

 

[nwgull]

No chance. It always amazes me how people seem to forget how the league tables go. At the top, teams around you are usually winning, so 6 points is a massive gap to make up. At the bottom, teams around you are usually losing, so win a couple of games and you climb out easily.

For us to make up 8 points on Man United would mean a catastrophic collapse from them, without Liverpool or Chelsea (with their vastly superior strength in depth) coming good. There are too many variables.

So if Man Utd completely collapse, we keep up the ridiculously good form we've had for the last month and get no injuries, Liverpool and Chelsea's vastly superior squads don't play anywhere near their capabilities, and no other team beneath us puts together a really good run then yes, it's possible. 9/1 is completely wasting your money.

Man U won't collapse, but I haven't been overly impressed with Newcastel recently. If it were possible to catch any of the current top 4, then it'd be them. Massive gap to make up though for the reasons you've stated about your rivals at the top not dropping many points. I'd bite your hand off if you offered me 6th right now.

 

[Gwylan]

I definitely think it's on - unlikely but certainly possible. I also think another team could stumble. In Herbert Zimmermann's immortal words "Call me mad, call me bonkers" but I reckon Citeh aren't the team they have been in previous seasons (now, watch them overtake Arsenal).

I think that if we were to do it, we'd have get at least 11 points from our games against United, Citeh, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs - that's a big ask but we'd need it to overhaul those points.

 

[Justice]

No chance. It always amazes me how people seem to forget how the league tables go. At the top, teams around you are usually winning, so 6 points is a massive gap to make up. At the bottom, teams around you are usually losing, so win a couple of games and you climb out easily.

For us to make up 8 points on Man United would mean a catastrophic collapse from them, without Liverpool or Chelsea (with their vastly superior strength in depth) coming good. There are too many variables.

So if Man Utd completely collapse, we keep up the ridiculously good form we've had for the last month and get no injuries, Liverpool and Chelsea's vastly superior squads don't play anywhere near their capabilities, and no other team beneath us puts together a really good run then yes, it's possible. 9/1 is completely wasting your money.

From no chance to it’s possible by the end of your post

 

[chickens]

As a one-off, not completely impossible, but depends on a lot of other teams having a bad season. As a regular occurrence, absolutely no chance.

 

[The Optimist]

No chance. It always amazes me how people seem to forget how the league tables go. At the top, teams around you are usually winning, so 6 points is a massive gap to make up. At the bottom, teams around you are usually losing, so win a couple of games and you climb out easily.

For us to make up 8 points on Man United would mean a catastrophic collapse from them, without Liverpool or Chelsea (with their vastly superior strength in depth) coming good. There are too many variables.

So if Man Utd completely collapse, we keep up the ridiculously good form we've had for the last month and get no injuries, Liverpool and Chelsea's vastly superior squads don't play anywhere near their capabilities, and no other team beneath us puts together a really good run then yes, it's possible. 9/1 is completely wasting your money.

Win our game in hand and that’s 3 of the 8 to catch Utd. Beat Utd on 19th March and that’s another 3. Just 2 points behind now - see it’s perfectly possible.

(Ok it’s very unlikely, but it’s fun to dream).

 

[Stat Brother]

Win our game in hand and that’s 3 of the 8 to catch Utd. Beat Utd on 19th March and that’s another 3. Just 2 points behind now - see it’s perfectly possible.

(Ok it’s very unlikely, but it’s fun to dream).

We ought to save up all our games in hand until we have 38 then we can go the whole season without dropping a point.

 

[rebel51]

Convinced that we’d get top 4. Had money on it too. Wobbled when GPott was horrendously poached by the Kings Road Wankers. Emboldened by RDZ. Think we’re better than every side except City and maybe Arsenal.

You think we are better than man utd?lol

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

So much has to go right, not least fitness and injuries with so many games to make up with the early season postponements and potential cup rescheduling. But no way Newcastle are cruising into the champions league. They might make it, but it will be tight. They may well be caught, most likely by Spurs. But if we have a stonking second half, it could be us.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Trap game on the horizon.

Fully braced for disappointment in both. It's the Albion way.

 

[TugWilson]

Play us we will give you a game , kick the crap out out of us and we will beat you .

 

[Grizz]

I think it's out of reach for us, top six is definitely on, but top four a step too far for me. Saying that, it's going to be a lot of fun finding out and who knows, the Albion rarely have a boring season, so why not!

 

[Munchkin]

Keep our squad fit we have a fighting chance.

Lose a couple of key players to injury and I just don’t think we have the required depth in our squad.

 

[Rookie]

We will have done well to stay where we are let alone make the top 4. Just going to enjoy the ride

 

[um bongo molongo]

Obviously strength in depth is the big question mark, but it's worth remembering that Leicester didn't have a squad featuring £50m players on the bench when they won the league.

No disrespect meant but they were relying on Leo Ulloa as their back up striker. I liked Ulloa of course, but is he a massive upgrade on, say, Denis Undav?

You could make a case for Mitoma and Caicedo equalling Mahrez and Kante. But we don’t have a peak Jamie Vardy banging in goals to win games where we don’t play well, like Leicester had. Ferguson would have to get fit and have some second half of the season to get us anywhere near top 4 imo. I’d be very happy with any sort of European place!

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

It's possible but not very likely. More likely than getting relegated this season which in itself is a pretty impressive achievement.

Realistically if we are to qualify for Europe it'll either be 5th -7th in the league or winning the f.a cup. I reckon 7th is our most likely finishing position based off of some very rudimentary stats analysis.

The team in 7th has finished with the following points for the past ten years:

21/22 - 56
20/21 - 62
19/20 - 59
18.19 - 57
17/18 - 54
16/17-61
15/16 - 62
14/15 - 60
13/14 - 64
12/13 61

We have 31 points at the halfway stage so if we repeat that we'll end up on 62 points which has been enough to finish 7th or better in nine of the last ten seasons. It's also been enough to finish sixth or better three times, and fifth once. It's never been enough to finish in the champions league spots.

Spurs are in fifth five points above us but we have two games in hand so they're very catchable in isolation. Newcastle are 8 points above us and we have one game in hand. Again they are catchable in isolation. However, Villa in 11th are only 3 points behind us although they have played a game more. Assuming we win our game in hand on newcastle and Villa we'll be five behind Newcastle and six ahead of Villa(and 4 above Brentford, five above Chelsea, and four above Fulham with another game in hand on them).

If we think that Newcastle and Spurs are catchable then we have to accept that we are very catchable by the teams below us.

Basically, we're going to need a fantastic second half of the season where we win at least twelve of our remaining 19 games(which is how many we won in the entirety of last season - our best ever top flight season). Possible but not likely. Personally I'll be absolutely delighted if we manage 6th or 7th. Or win the cup.

 

[trueblue]

Let’s just finish above Chelsea and see where that puts us.

 

[RowZ]

I mentioned top 4 to a friend - he asked if I was tripping on some shamanic jungle juice.

But let me give some rationale - we look good - very good. And have one of the best midfield duos in the world.

Liverpool are done - Chelsea have to gel 50 ego players who never played in England before - under massive pressure.
Spurs are putrid - Kane is their saving grace.

It's a case of if Manu or Newcastle mess up - and both aren't great consistently.

To make CL group stage would be insane......but really, a play with the Europa League group stage is probably a healthier step up for us. But -CL would mean we keep many players who might think of leaving.

This is our big chance season - and this is why Bloom kept MC - if we were mid table or lower - for sure he would have cashed in.

Do Newcastle make Europa for winning the Rumbelows Paint Carpets Cup?

 

[Silverhatch]

You think we are better than man utd?lol

We ARE better than United.

 

[Brok]

We ARE better than United.

True.