[Albion] Interesting Expected Points (based on XG) graph

[Machiavelli]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/529060/uk-newspaper-market-by-circulation/

Ever considered its online reach? Perhaps you could dredge up some stats on that; perhaps, like me, you're too obsessed with tomorrow's fish and chip paper rather than what's occurring in the world.

 

[Bodian]

Ever considered its online reach? Perhaps you could dredge up some stats on that; perhaps, like me, you're too obsessed with tomorrow's fish and chip paper rather than what's occurring in the world.

https://www.newsworks.org.uk/resources/multi-platform

 

[Machiavelli]

https://www.newsworks.org.uk/resources/multi-platform

Thank you. I'm under the assumption that those figures relate to UK reader/viewership, whereas the success of the online Guardian is built on its international audience unlike, for instance, The Sun

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Thank you. I'm under the assumption that those figures relate to UK reader/viewership, whereas the success of the online Guardian is built on its international audience unlike, for instance, The Sun

The Guardian is seriously overrated, the tabloids are just crap comics. Personal opinions of course.

 

[SussexSeahawk]

Sorry, but it is HOPELESSLY flawed, to the edge of pointlessness.

It makes ZERO allowance for the state of the respective games. In that run of three 1-0 wins for example, for a very large period of each game, one side (us as it happens) was ahead in the game, and attempting to see it out -making little effort to create further chances, but instead seeking to bed in and stifle the opposition.

It goes without saying that in those lengthy periods of those matches that opposition are going to rack up some chances, and boost their 'XG'. Effectively you're suggesting that our going ahead in three consecutive matches is an indicator of future poor form.

It's statistical bullshit.

Ok maybe I went a bit far in saying it was the 'whole point': obviously there are much more complex and accurate models being used by sports traders. I'm very much not saying that if you bet using xG you would make money: there are a lot of weaknesses in the model as I pointed out in my first post about our blocked shots, but xG models are very impressive at predicting future form given the relative simplicity of the model (specifically in comparison to other basic stats like shots, possession or points).

I think it's mainly about perspective and what you are expecting a stat to be. xG is an interesting stat in quantifying the shots within a game and determining who had the better chances. I was mainly responding to earlier posters saying that the whole concept of it was a load of trash, which I think is wrong as it has more meaning than possession stats for example.

 

[Tesco in Disguise]

You've not explained how points are calculated. Taking xG alone and awarding three points to the higher scoring team would not take draws into account, yet these are hardly ever possible using xG, as the final scores are to two decimal points.

 

[McTavish]

You've not explained how points are calculated. Taking xG alone and awarding three points to the higher scoring team would not take draws into account, yet these are hardly ever possible using xG, as the final scores are to two decimal points.

Sure, but if one team has 0.89 xG and the other has 1.12 then I would think that is a 1-1 draw.

 

[Bakero]

The Guardian is seriously overrated, the tabloids are just crap comics. Personal opinions of course.

3rd most read online newspaper in the UK. Its International readership is larger than its UK readership.