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[Finance] Interest Rates/Inflation



WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
28,255
Err, no they're not.
The best experts trade for themselves, like myself for 35 years and now retired.
The "best experts" employed by financial institutions are just economists with a lot of theory who don't have the balls to trade.
Then further down the rung you have financial journalists who didn't obtain a high enough degree at Uni to get in the door as an economist at a financial institution.

So, given your background and location, it seems you are the perfect person to answer @BadFish's question :shrug:
 




The Maharajah of Sydney

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
1,431
Sydney .
So, given your background and location, it seems you are the perfect person to answer @BadFish's question :shrug:
In Australia by far and away the best forward guidance for Interest Rates lies with the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve.
As you can see from the chart below, the professional market sees a gradual sustained drop in the RBA Official Cash Rate of around 0.75% within the next 18 months, taking it from where it is currently at 4.35% to 3.6%
I wouldn't fix.

ASX 30-Day Cash Rate Implied Yield.PNG

 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,762
On the other hand, government fiscal policy today is definitely reminiscent of Heath's and Wilson's and Callaghan's policy in the seventies, and that resulted in double digit mortgage rates that lasted for over 20 years. Who can tell.
 


B-right-on

Living the dream
Apr 23, 2015
6,835
Shoreham Beaaaach
No. The best traders on average will work for a bank or hedge fund betting someone else's money! Not to say there aren't amazing retail traders out there.

Absolutely not. I know several former hedge fund/ institution traders who learned all their tradecraft and made their mistakes trading other peoples money and when they got really really competent, set up on their own using their own money or setting up their own funds.

Hedge funds and banking institutions are highly highly regulated and controlled. Much easier to do it for yourself without the regulatory bodies breathing down your neck
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
63,588
The Fatherland
I don’t worry about interest rates too much, I just look at the offers and if I’m comfortable paying that each month, given my circumstances, I go for it.
 




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