I'm going to stick my long neck on the line - England to win Euro 2012

[hans kraay fan club]

Quite.

It is remarkable how now that the media have realised just how shit our team is, there are certain elements of England's support who seem to consider this a good omen. I'm chuckling how some of the "experts" on the BBC (i.e. the usual lazy golfing buddy clique) are now saying that England won't win but they WILL overachieve now that everyone is writing them off.

No they won't. We are a crap team, poorly prepared with a new manager. No one is giving us a chance because we are shit, and because we labour to friendly wins over tiny countries and are technically deficient. We will go out in the group stages, with two points at best.

We are not 'shit', nor are we great,

The fact is that because expectations are low, we will 'overachieve' AGAINST those expectations, by going out in the QF, just as we always do. The only difference from past tournaments, is that in those previous cases expectations had been built up to the extent, that this very same outcome was seen as UNDERachieving!

 

[Mellotron]

Seriously, where are we going to get the required points to get out of the group stages:

France - 0 defeats in 20, form team in World football
Sweden - who we have beaten once (in a friendly) in 50 years
Ukraine - one of the host nations

And with probably the shittest squad we've had since 1974.

I reckon we will draw with France. People seem to think we will leak goals, which is a bit odd considering we have unquestionably one of the best keepers in the world.
Sweden - And when was that win against them? Oh yes, a few months ago. If we turn up we can beat them, otherwise another draw, don't think we'll lose.
Ukraine - Good chance they'll be out of contention by this point, they are absolutely relying on one 35-year old. Can win this one.

That's where.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

No I don't, because I would prefer to support my team. Plus I'll get better odds at a bookies I'm sure.

Of course you wouldn't you goon. Find me a bookies, offering better than EVENS, that England fail to secure more than TWO points from three games. They'll be better than evens to win the Ukraine game alone, for starters.

 

[Mellotron]

We are not 'shit', nor are we great,

The fact is that because expectations are low, we will 'overachieve' AGAINST those expectations, by going out in the QF, just as we always do. The only difference from past tournaments, is that in those previous cases expectations had been built up to the extent, that this very same outcome was seen as UNDERachieving!

Correct. Anyone saying we are "shit" is being as silly as those saying we are "great". We are about 7th-10th best, roughly the spot we have always been at.

 

[Simster]

Of course you wouldn't you goon. Find me a bookies, offering better than EVENS, that England fail to secure more than TWO points from three games. They'll be better than evens to win the Ukraine game alone, for starters.

The bookies always overestimate England's chances because people like to bet on England. And I think we will get two points in this tournament, no more. So what has the odds on a win over Ukraine got to do with my bet? I think you're being a bit THICK.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

The bookies always overestimate England's chances because people like to bet on England. And I think we will get two points in this tournament, no more. So what has the odds on a win over Ukraine got to do with my bet? I think you're being a bit THICK.

What are you talking about Sim, you UTTER fool? YOU said that if you were interested in Mello's bet you'd get 'better odds at the bookies'. Clearly, if they were to offer BETTER odds on England winning ONE of the three games (that gets you THREE points btw), than the evens that was being suggested for your original suggestion that we'd only get TWO overall, then its got quite a lot 'to do with it'.

Did you have a late night or something?

 

[Simster]

Not sure I agree!

I reckon we will draw with France. People seem to think we will leak goals, which is a bit odd considering we have unquestionably one of the best keepers in the world. We're missing our two best centre backs, and don't look like scoring a goal against one of the world's best teams. A draw if we're VERY lucky, but probably a comfortable defeat. I hope I'm wrong.
Sweden - And when was that win against them? Oh yes, a few months ago. If we turn up we can beat them, otherwise another draw, don't think we'll lose. We never beat Sweden. Friendlies don't count. This is a nailed on draw, IMO
Ukraine - Good chance they'll be out of contention by this point, they are absolutely relying on one 35-year old. Can win this one.It really does come down to this, but I just don't see us turning them over I'm afraid. If the Ukraine have even one point at this stage, then they are probably very much in contention. I suspect France will have six points, Sweden two, and these two teams a point each.

That's where.

 

[Simster]

What are you talking about Sim, you UTTER fool? YOU said that if you were interested in Mello's bet you'd get 'better odds at the bookies'. Clearly, if they were to offer BETTER odds on England winning ONE of the three games (that gets you THREE points btw), than the evens that was being suggested for your original suggestion that we'd only get TWO overall, then its got quite a lot 'to do with it'.

Did you have a late night or something?

No. Did you?

Here is Mellotron's post:

Fancy a wager? £20 says we get more than 2 points. You said "at best" so you must be supremely confident.

That means that I would win if we get two points or less. That means that Mellotron would win if England win ONE of the three games (at odds better than evens), not me you MUPPET.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

That means that I would win if we get two points or less. That means that Mellotron would win if England win ONE of the three games (at odds better than evens), not me you MUPPET.

You are being wantonly obtuse.

If it is accepted (by the bookies) that there is a BETTER than evens chance of England winning the Ukraine game, how can there POSSIBLY be a LESS than evens chance of them getting less than three points overall?

 

[Simster]

You are being wantonly obtuse.

If it is accepted (by the bookies) that there is a BETTER than evens chance of England winning the Ukraine game, how can there POSSIBLY be a LESS than evens chance of them getting less than three points overall?

Ah, it seems we are misunderstanding each other.

I don't think the bookies will give us a BETTER than evens chance of England winning the Ukraine game, I think the ODDS will be better than evens for England to win it.
i.e. I suspect England to win that one will be around 11/8 rather than, say, 10/11.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Sweden - And when was that win against them? Oh yes, a few months ago.

This reminds me of David James prior to the Germany England game in the last world cup when he said "I have one thing to say to anyone who doubts us....Berlin." And we all know how that WC game ended.

A win over a nation who were over here in bucket-and-spade mode means very very little.

And as for the rest of your post you're clutching at straws. I have seen absolutely nothing which has suggested we will do well at this tournament...in fact I have seen a lot to suggest we will not. In fact, the last crumb of hope most people seem to be clinging onto is that because we are so disorganised, naive and lacking in talent we might go and win it. This says all you need to know.

 

[Stat Brother]

You are being wantonly obtuse.

On NSC, I have my doubts.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

You are being wantonly obtuse.

I like this line, I am going to use it today.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Fancy a wager? £20 says we get more than 2 points. You said "at best" so you must be supremely confident.

No I don't, because I would prefer to support my team. Plus I'll get better odds at a bookies I'm sure.

Ah, it seems we are misunderstanding each other.

I don't think the bookies will give us a BETTER than evens chance of England winning the Ukraine game, I think the ODDS will be better than evens for England to win it.
i.e. I suspect England to win that one will be around 11/8 rather than, say, 10/11.

I'm certainly misunderstanding you. You stated very clearly (the bit in bold) that you'd get better odds from the bookies (than evens) that England would fail to get three points. As your last post testifies, that will clearly not be the case. Go on - just admit you were wrong.

 

[Mellotron]

This reminds me of David James prior to the Germany England game in the last world cup when he said "I have one thing to say to anyone who doubts us....Berlin." And we all know how that WC game ended.

A win over a nation who were over here in bucket-and-spade mode means very very little.

And as for the rest of your post you're clutching at straws. I have seen absolutely nothing which has suggested we will do well at this tournament...in fact I have seen a lot to suggest we will not. In fact, the last crumb of hope most people seem to be clinging onto is that because we are so disorganised, naive and lacking in talent we might go and win it. This says all you need to know.

Are we THAT disorganised? We were dull, and lacking in ideas against Belgium and Norway - but the one thing we did look was organised. I do genuinely think we'll be tough to break down.

We're not going to win it, we'll probably make quarters at best, semis if we are lucky. I'm hardly saying we're amazing, just that maybe for once we'll be the sum of our parts.

Belgium and Norway are roughly the equivalent of Sweden and Ukraine, no?

 

[Simster]

I'm certainly misunderstanding you. You stated very clearly (the bit in bold) that you'd get better odds from the bookies (than evens) that England would fail to get less than three points. As your last post testifies, that will clearly not be the case. Go on - just admit you were wrong.

I really do think you're being incredibly thick and that I am going to have to explain this in full.

I do indeed think I will get better than evens at the bookies for England to win just 2 points or less.

Obviously, if England were to win just ONE game, then I would lose my bet. My guess is that England will be something like this to WIN each of their games:
v France: 9/4 (so a probability of a win is 31%, of not winning is 69%)
v Sweden: evens (50%)
v Ukraine: 11/10 (48%, of not winning is 52%)

So the chance of them winning NO GAMES according to the bookies is:
69% x 50% x 52% = 18%

(Actually I'd guess the chance of us winning less than two points is nearer 30% because you have to factor in the chance of 3 draws)

So to conclude, if I went to the bookies this lunchtime and said "I want £20 on England to finish on 2 points or less", he would give me odds to reflect what he suggests is a low chance of that happening - around 5/2.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I really do think you're being incredibly thick and that I am going to have to explain this in full.

I do indeed think I will get better than evens at the bookies for England to win just 2 points or less.

Obviously, if England were to win just ONE game, then I would lose my bet. My guess is that England will be something like this to WIN each of their games:
v France: 9/4 (so a probability of a win is 31%, of not winning is 69%)
v Sweden: evens (50%)
v Ukraine: 11/10 (48%, of not winning is 52%)

So the chance of them winning NO GAMES according to the bookies is:
69% x 50% x 52% = 18%

(Actually I'd guess the chance of us winning less than two points is nearer 30% because you have to factor in the chance of 3 draws)

So to conclude, if I went to the bookies this lunchtime and said "I want £20 on England to finish on 2 points or less", he would give me odds to reflect what he suggests is a low chance of that happening - around 5/2.

Okay. If that IS what you meant, then you are not wrong.

 

[Mellotron]

You two done?

 

[Simster]

Okay. If that IS what you meant, then you are not wrong.

Yes. I know.

So which bit of "Plus I'll get better odds at a bookies I'm sure." which you highlighted in bold was so incredibly difficult to comprehend that you pretty much insisted that I admit I was wrong?

Go on, admit you were wrong.

 

[Simster]

You two done?

Once he admits he was wrong and completely misunderstood my fairly simple-to-understand position.