I take it Albion fans want us (Boro) to beat Burnley on Tuesday?

[Hotchilidog]

I think you're right - this league is brutal and even teams at the bottom can beat anyone on their day.

As for squad togetherness - this will sound daft after the whole walk out incident and the fact that Aitor has had spats with Adomag and Downing but I really think it's the closest group of players we've had in a while. I think the number of late winners we've scored is testament to that.

I have to say I am surprised at how you have pushed on since the big row. You have always had the talent in the squad but it did seem that you had imploded for while. It does speak volumes that you have successfully turned that around.

What a crazy end to the season.

 

[JCL666]

Obviously three straight wins take us up however, we have won four straight matches already and our final two matches are also against teams that are bang in form. For us to guarantee promotion we will need seven straight wins, taking down two teams who are also winning matches. That remains one hell of an ask and I suspect that we won't be able to manage it and will be reliant on results elsewhere. My gut feeling is that we will fall just short of the automatic places. I know it's unfashionable to say so and with the form we are in its certainly not impossible but that's my sense of it right now. We need to start by really trying to put Charlton to the sword and applying as much pressure as possible to our competitors.

I feel ill just thinking about it.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

I just have had a feeling that Boro will be the ones who slip up.

Last night may have CRUSHED them. Luckily we picked up after the Burnley disappointment but Boro must have thought that was promotion almost sorted.

In a VERY rose-tinted view, I like to think that they are looking at us thinking "shit. They are scoring for FUN and they are coming to us last day of the season. That's horrible"
Whilst looking at Burnley as just a MACHINE churning out 1-0's with set pieces.

It's much scarier being the ones chased rather than the chasers.

Again, all slightly biased!

 

[07May2016]

I just have had a feeling that Boro will be the ones who slip up.

Last night may have CRUSHED them. Luckily we picked up after the Burnley disappointment but Boro must have thought that was promotion almost sorted.

In a VERY rose-tinted view, I like to think that they are looking at us thinking "shit. They are scoring for FUN and they are coming to us last day of the season. That's horrible"
Whilst looking at Burnley as just a MACHINE churning out 1-0's with set pieces.

It's much scarier being the ones chased rather than the chasers.

Again, all slightly biased!

You're not too far off the mark to be honest, i don't see Burnley slipping up now. I see us both winning our next games, then we have Birmingham away which will be very tricky. You have Derby which is equally difficult, especially if we've already won at Birmingham. I don't think that late goal will crush us, we still come home top of the league so they should still be very confident.

 

[Saladpack Seagull]

I had somehow acquired the belief that this season when Boro score, they don't concede. But something also told me that Burnley might creep back with their blend of set-pieces and thuggery. Oh well, onwards and hopefully upwards........!

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

This #togetherness thing is interesting.

In a recent conversation I had with an ex-professional cricketer [17 years at Worcs] he said the common theme of all the successful teams he'd played in was "a happy dressing room" which I think is old fashioned for #togetherness.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

You're not too far off the mark to be honest, i don't see Burnley slipping up now. I see us both winning our next games, then we have Birmingham away which will be very tricky. You have Derby which is equally difficult, especially if we've already won at Birmingham. I don't think that late goal will crush us, we still come home top of the league so they should still be very confident.

I'm not convinced that Birmingham will be too much of a hurdle for Boro. They weren't all that when we played there recently. Alright, we hardly thrashed them, but they were very limited. Their back four is cumbersome and their strike force of Kyle Lafferty and Clayton Donaldson won't tear up any trees. Boro aren't a spectacular side but they're clinical, and they tend (as far as I can see) to despatch ordinary sides quite professionally.

Equally, I've had the feeling a few Boro fans are judging our chances based on that game back in December (when, funnily enough, you despatched us quite clinically). We were decimated by injuries then, and on the absolute last legs of our long unbeaten run, which had actually looked like coming to an end for two or three weeks prior to that, before we clung on. We've since added a couple of players, got the key ones back from medium term injuries, and are playing some outstanding football at the moment. If it did actually come down to us needing to win at the Riverside, I would- with the greatest of respect to Boro- happily take that, as I honestly believe this lot are more than capable of doing it on the day. It's an intimidating prospect, but could we do it? Yes, of course we could, especially if Boro underestimated us.

We have to beat Charlton & Derby first, of course. God, this is EXCITING, isn't it? Sure beats the end to last season

 

[ROSM]

Sticking veet for men on my genitalia would beat last season

 

[LamieRobertson]

I'm not convinced that Birmingham will be too much of a hurdle for Boro. They weren't all that when we played there recently. Alright, we hardly thrashed them, but they were very limited. Their back four is cumbersome and their strike force of Kyle Lafferty and Clayton Donaldson won't tear up any trees. Boro aren't a spectacular side but they're clinical, and they tend (as far as I can see) to despatch ordinary sides quite professionally.

Equally, I've had the feeling a few Boro fans are judging our chances based on that game back in December (when, funnily enough, you despatched us quite clinically). We were decimated by injuries then, and on the absolute last legs of our long unbeaten run, which had actually looked like coming to an end for two or three weeks prior to that, before we clung on. We've since added a couple of players, got the key ones back from medium term injuries, and are playing some outstanding football at the moment. If it did actually come down to us needing to win at the Riverside, I would- with the greatest of respect to Boro- happily take that, as I honestly believe this lot are more than capable of doing it on the day. It's an intimidating prospect, but could we do it? Yes, of course we could, especially if Boro underestimated us.

We have to beat Charlton & Derby first, of course. God, this is EXCITING, isn't it? Sure beats the end to last season

It's also interesting to note that in recent years our record is far better at Bro than at home ..winning 2 and drawing the other...hope springs eternal

 

[JCL666]

This #togetherness thing is interesting.

In a recent conversation I had with an ex-professional cricketer [17 years at Worcs] he said the common theme of all the successful teams he'd played in was "a happy dressing room" which I think is old fashioned for #togetherness.

I get what you're saying, I think you could also call it team spirit.

Look at our current team. They look like they would run through walls for each other. As soon as an opposition player squares up to one of them, half a dozen Brighton players are there to back him up. During every game, the work rate of every player is incredible.

I really really do think they believe they can beat anybody in this division. I think they can too.

 

[Daffy Duck]

What's really been pleasing these last couple of games is that even when we were 4 or 5 nil up, they were still trying to battle away and hassle the opposition.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

We're 8/11.

No, that's not what it means. It means the bookies don't want to offer better odds than that, nothing more. They will have already taken money on us when the odds were longer. as you say, 'brough and Burnley are most likely to fill the top two spots, we'd then become not much better than 1 in 4 to win the playoffs.

Realistically I'd think it's not far off of evans for promotion.

Not sure who evans is but we are widely priced up at 8/15 and 1/2 for promotion. The prevalence of these prices means we are legitimately considered odds on for promotion.

This thing about bookies not wanting to take money at favourable odds is something I've never understood. I thought it was the definition of what bookies are in business to do.

Are you telling me that Victor Chandler wouldn't lay a pure 10/11 chance at 5/6 all day long regardless of how many tens of thousands of pounds were being staked...?

 

[glasfryn]

Burnley and Boro can fight it out as to who comes up with us, I really don't give a monkeys which

 

[Triggaaar]

Not sure who evans is

He's a bookie

but we are widely priced up at 8/15

Sky bet have us at 4/5 for promotion, so why would you take 8/15? The fact that Sky offer 4/5 means it's extremely unlikely that chances are better than that, as they're not in the business of giving money away.

This thing about bookies not wanting to take money at favourable odds is something I've never understood. I thought it was the definition of what bookies are in business to do.

It's not as simple as that. Some are more risk averse than others - they don't want to be taking the risk, they want to turn a profit whatever the outcome.

Are you telling me that Victor Chandler wouldn't lay a pure 10/11 chance at 5/6 all day long regardless of how many tens of thousands of pounds were being staked...?

I can't speak for their specific reasons, but I can say that they're not going to get much money on Brighton at 1/2, when pundits can make the same bet at 4/5 with Sky Bet.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

It's not as simple as that. Some are more risk averse than others - they don't want to be taking the risk, they want to turn a profit whatever the outcome.

The risk aversion thing and desire to turn a profit whatever the outcome is simply illogical. I know I've said the same on here before (and probably you answered me then!) but I don't think I will ever understand it.

I cannot think of a single good reason why a major bookie (assuming a high level of solvency and capital reserves) would not, within reason, simply want to attract and lay every bet they could at profitable odds. Shouldn't logically make any difference what bets they laid yesterday on the same event or any other event.

 

[Danny-Boy]

I'm not convinced that Birmingham will be too much of a hurdle for Boro. They weren't all that when we played there recently. Alright, we hardly thrashed them, but they were very limited. Their back four is cumbersome and their strike force of Kyle Lafferty and Clayton Donaldson won't tear up any trees. Boro aren't a spectacular side but they're clinical, and they tend (as far as I can see) to despatch ordinary sides quite professionally.

Equally, I've had the feeling a few Boro fans are judging our chances based on that game back in December (when, funnily enough, you despatched us quite clinically). We were decimated by injuries then, and on the absolute last legs of our long unbeaten run, which had actually looked like coming to an end for two or three weeks prior to that, before we clung on. We've since added a couple of players, got the key ones back from medium term injuries, and are playing some outstanding football at the moment. If it did actually come down to us needing to win at the Riverside, I would- with the greatest of respect to Boro- happily take that, as I honestly believe this lot are more than capable of doing it on the day. It's an intimidating prospect, but could we do it? Yes, of course we could, especially if Boro underestimated us.

We have to beat Charlton & Derby first, of course. God, this is EXCITING, isn't it? Sure beats the end to last season

I would like to know, given how Albion fans react to this part of history:

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?233406-Southampton-v-Tottenham-1978

what would happen if Albion met Boro on the last day, knowing that a draw would be enough for both clubs. I tend to imagine that you would pursue the same option, have a meaningless 0-0...

 

[Herne Hill Seagull]

Looking at the oneboro forum earlier, one or two of them seem oddly nervous about the Ipswich game specifically, for some reason. Maybe they have a poor record against them or something?

I have a bad feeling about every game at the moment - it's the hope that I can't stand - but so far the team have defied my nerves. Maybe this is a constant among the support of all three?

 

[Triggaaar]

The risk aversion thing and desire to turn a profit whatever the outcome is simply illogical.

Why is making a risk free profit illogical?

I cannot think of a single good reason why a major bookie (assuming a high level of solvency and capital reserves) would not, within reason, simply want to attract and lay every bet they could at profitable odds.

What are profitable odds? The truth is, the bookies don't know what will happen and although they put a lot of effort into working out the odds as best they can, it's not an exact science. They also have to factor in that sometimes there is information available that they don't have (like a player that's carrying a slight knock for example). Given that we know Mr Bloom convinced Victor Chandler to put their France 98 earnings on a France victory in the final, I'd imagine that VC are less risk averse than many other bookies.

Shouldn't logically make any difference what bets they laid yesterday on the same event or any other event.

If a bookie has taken a lot of bets on one particular outcome, and they don't change the odds but keep taking more and more bets, they may well make a nice profit, but they may make a massive loss, and that's a risk that some companies just don't want to take. They'd rather ignore the potential for big, risky profit, and go with the smaller guaranteed profit.

 

[Stato]

I get what you're saying, I think you could also call it team spirit.

Look at our current team. They look like they would run through walls for each other. As soon as an opposition player squares up to one of them, half a dozen Brighton players are there to back him up. During every game, the work rate of every player is incredible.

I really really do think they believe they can beat anybody in this division. I think they can too.

Remembering the old Tony Adams statement that you need five, I get the impression that we have considerably more than five.

 

[Ernest]

Why is making a risk free profit illogical?

What are profitable odds? The truth is, the bookies don't know what will happen and although they put a lot of effort into working out the odds as best they can, it's not an exact science. They also have to factor in that sometimes there is information available that they don't have (like a player that's carrying a slight knock for example). Given that we know Mr Bloom convinced Victor Chandler to put their France 98 earnings on a France victory in the final, I'd imagine that VC are less risk averse than many other bookies.

If a bookie has taken a lot of bets on one particular outcome, and they don't change the odds but keep taking more and more bets, they may well make a nice profit, but they may make a massive loss, and that's a risk that some companies just don't want to take. They'd rather ignore the potential for big, risky profit, and go with the smaller guaranteed profit.

Or the fact that the France WC1998 win is meant to be suspicious ?