[Politics] How we fool ourselves

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Just watching the Elizabeth Holmes documentary (Theranos) again.

A psychologists did a great study. He asked volunteers to throw a die (dice). He said that the top number would win them face value dollar. Throw a 3, you get 3 dollars. And so on. But, he said 'decide before you throw whether you want the top or bottom' and declare after the throw. It was unsurprising how often when a 1 was thrown the thrower called 'bottom' (six).

He then did the study again with a lie detector (detects conflict of emotion and a heart rate rush). Yep, the lies were detected.

He then repeated the study and said that the dollars you win go to a charity of your choice. The 'remarkable' claims of 'bottom' when a 1 or 2 was thrown continued. BUT the lie detector detected no lies.

So....you lie with no conscience when you believe the lie is a good lie. Have a think about that.....

This is how Elizabeth Holmes sold Theranos. If it worked it would be brilliant. So when it didn't work she bullied staff to lie and fake. She had decided that if she was right it would be amazing, so when it wasn't (and she never had the skills, only the 'vision') she kept digging.

Beware politicians who have a vision and never admit the vision may be flawed. The more amazing the vision the greater the risk that a delusional psychopath will sell it and sell it, until everyone is ****ed.

You can decide for yourselves which recent politicians have decided they see a vision, and have pursued it, even after it was palpably wrong, and they cracked on anyway....

Elizabeth Holmes convinced Henry Kissinger and Rupert Murdoch she was a visionary.

I found this very interesting. Add in confirmation bias and there you have it. Stalin. Hitler. Trump. Thatcher. Blair. Johnson. People supported them.

So how do we do better....for ourselves, for our nation, for our future? How do we avoid following pied pipers? How do we avoid the most catestrophic charlatanry?

Tricky.

 

[Goldstone1976]

…Stalin. Hitler. Trump. Thatcher. Blair. Johnson…

…How do we avoid following pied pipers? How do we avoid the most catestrophic charlatanry?

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

 

[usernamed]

Just watching the Elizabeth Holmes documentary (Theranos) again.

A psychologists did a great study. He asked volunteers to throw a die (dice). He said that the top number would win them face value dollar. Throw a 3, you get 3 dollars. And so on. But, he said 'decide before you throw whether you want the top or bottom' and declare after the throw. It was unsurprising how often when a 1 was thrown the thrower called 'bottom' (six).

He then did the study again with a lie detector (detects conflict of emotion and a heart rate rush). Yep, the lies were detected.

He then repeated the study and said that the dollars you win go to a charity of your choice. The 'remarkable' claims of 'bottom' when a 1 or 2 was thrown continued. BUT the lie detector detected no lies.

So....you lie with no conscience when you believe the lie is a good lie. Have a think about that.....

This is how Elizabeth Holmes sold Theranos. If it worked it would be brilliant. So when it didn't work she bullied staff to lie and fake. She had decided that if she was right it would be amazing, so when it wasn't (and she never had the skills, only the 'vision') she kept digging.

Beware politicians who have a vision and never admit the vision may be flawed. The more amazing the vision the greater the risk that a delusional psychopath will sell it and sell it, until everyone is ****ed.

You can decide for yourselves which recent politicians have decided they see a vision, and have pursued it, even after it was palpably wrong, and they cracked on anyway....

Elizabeth Holmes convinced Henry Kissinger and Rupert Murdoch she was a visionary.

I found this very interesting. Add in confirmation bias and there you have it. Stalin. Hitler. Trump. Thatcher. Blair. Johnson. People supported them.

So how do we do better....for ourselves, for our nation, for our future? How do we avoid following pied pipers? How do we avoid the most catestrophic charlatanry?

Tricky.

The sad answer is, I don’t think we do.

We saw Trump, and yet elected Johnson. We’d seen Berlusconi before, in Italy, and commiserated with our Italian friends, thinking at the time “those crazy Italians, it could never happen here.”

One of the great lessons that history teaches us is that we don’t as a species, learn and become wiser, and that a narcissistic sociopath with the backing of a chunk of a nation’s media resources can capture “hearts and minds”.

Ironically it would take a great Conservative value, self-responsibility for the kind of politician we vote for to change, and yet right there we have a problem. The current Conservative Party sends the right messages on that score, they seem like a party with good values in the abstract. You need to dig into the actual MPs actions and affairs to see the gap between what they practice and what they preach, or where the virtue of self-responsibility turns into the vice of cruelty to those who (for whatever reason) are not able to make good decisions for themselves.

A similar story in business, a good business person can generally spot a cynical liar, and ask enough questions and do enough due diligence to rule out obvious frauds. If the person they’re talking to absolutely believes what they’re saying however, and there’s no smoking gun among the figures, the task becomes tougher, and we end up with a Theranos.

Our society rewards sociopathic behaviour, it wants to believe in the ubermensch and the idea of figures who are going to save us (from religion to politics to technology)

Characters like Trump and Johnson should be treated for their mental health, not lauded as strong leaders, and unless society as a whole evolves to recognise that, my personal feeling is we’re trapped in the cycle waiting for it to happen again.

 

[el punal]

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

That’s me f***ed then!

 

[Goldstone1976]

That’s me f***ed then!

 

[Is it PotG?]

Some deep, late night stuff there.

More relaxing and less stressful, have you tried some music?

I can strongly recommend these: https://latenighttales.co.uk/collections/the-series

 

[beorhthelm]

Characters like Trump and Johnson should be treated for their mental health, not lauded as strong leaders, and unless society as a whole evolves to recognise that, my personal feeling is we’re trapped in the cycle waiting for it to happen again.

no one sensible thinks Trump or Johnson are leaders. they're good at telling people what they want to hear, a strong leader convinces people who didnt want something that its a good idea. i cant work out if Holmes is a brilliant saleswoman, believing her own myth, or a outright con. i dont think you can convince so many people if you dont believe it yourself.

also dont see how you can remove people that can convince other from politics. the alternative is leaders without any conviction, administrators, like May and no one wants that.

 

[scooter1]

We didn't go quite that in depth a couple of nights back, but me and the wife were asking: 'what makes anybody want to be a politician?' The only conclusions we came up with were, self promotion and self gain. Neither of which will help the electorate they are supposed to be there for

 

[BadFish]

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

I don't know why you feel the need to have a go at me.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

You just couldn't let it lie........


Unfortunately, Starmer has no vision so we won't get to see how many whoppers he can use as PM.



So are you suggesting we do lie detector test on every PM that makes a statement then Hazza?


Trust no one( apart from Mouldy) and keep one eye on god, this will serve you well.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

I would say these are super intelligent people its just most will not understand where they are coming from.

 

[Rambo]

It’s easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled.

 

[usernamed]

no one sensible thinks Trump or Johnson are leaders. they're good at telling people what they want to hear, a strong leader convinces people who didnt want something that its a good idea. i cant work out if Holmes is a brilliant saleswoman, believing her own myth, or a outright con. i dont think you can convince so many people if you dont believe it yourself.

also dont see how you can remove people that can convince other from politics. the alternative is leaders without any conviction, administrators, like May and no one wants that.

But both were elected to positions of ultimate power in their respective nations.

Both the Republican Party in America and the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom are supposed to have systems of checks and balances to prevent absolute nutjobs from reaching such positions, and those systems are clearly entirely inadequate, and will have been hollowed out further from within by each leader once in power. (See Suella Braverman not being the first out in the current Conservative leadership contest)

The simple fact is that both parties are currently selling visions so unappetising to a majority of swing voters, that they needed to make that deal for a charismatic salesman/bullshitter to come in, who could make voting for what they stand for palatable.

As far as I can see, without the Republican/Conservative party deciding that the damage done makes such deals more trouble than they’re worth, there’s nothing to stop this happening again.

For a great swathe of Conservative MPs, especially those promoted by Johnson, the important thing appears to be power, not the country, and as we’ve seen, they’ll swallow their consciences for as long as the gravy train is on the tracks.

 

[El Presidente]

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

Sparks are fooked then.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The sad answer is, I don’t think we do.

We saw Trump, and yet elected Johnson. We’d seen Berlusconi before, in Italy, and commiserated with our Italian friends, thinking at the time “those crazy Italians, it could never happen here.”

One of the great lessons that history teaches us is that we don’t as a species, learn and become wiser, and that a narcissistic sociopath with the backing of a chunk of a nation’s media resources can capture “hearts and minds”.

Ironically it would take a great Conservative value, self-responsibility for the kind of politician we vote for to change, and yet right there we have a problem. The current Conservative Party sends the right messages on that score, they seem like a party with good values in the abstract. You need to dig into the actual MPs actions and affairs to see the gap between what they practice and what they preach, or where the virtue of self-responsibility turns into the vice of cruelty to those who (for whatever reason) are not able to make good decisions for themselves.

A similar story in business, a good business person can generally spot a cynical liar, and ask enough questions and do enough due diligence to rule out obvious frauds. If the person they’re talking to absolutely believes what they’re saying however, and there’s no smoking gun among the figures, the task becomes tougher, and we end up with a Theranos.

Our society rewards sociopathic behaviour, it wants to believe in the ubermensch and the idea of figures who are going to save us (from religion to politics to technology)

Characters like Trump and Johnson should be treated for their mental health, not lauded as strong leaders, and unless society as a whole evolves to recognise that, my personal feeling is we’re trapped in the cycle waiting for it to happen again.

A sensible reply. Thanks.

I'm a little saddened that Mouldy thinks this is a thread in support of Starmer. Having supported his right to express his sigtly odd opinions, I'd comment on this occasion that you look a bit of a twit when you try to join a conversation that you don't understand. Best stay in the saloon bar.

 

[Questions]

From the sample you provide, how about “Avoid people who have weird hair, odd moustaches, or who are overly smarmy”?

I do