[Albion] How much is Wee Billy Gilmour worth?

[Han Solo]

These are the (then) U22 central midfielders from Premier League who managed to reach at least 2000 minutes of game time last season:

Pape Matar Sarr Tottenham
Amadou Onana Everton
Moises Caicedo Chelsea
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool
Billy Gilmour Brighton
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea
James Garner Everton

The only one of these who cost less than £12m in their last move was indeed Billy, with Garner and Sarr costing their respective around £15m, both bought from clubs in desperate need for money.

£12m is just about enough to get you a promising midfielder from the Ecuadorian league.

If you want one of the most experienced young midfielders in the best league of the world.... £12m is not really getting you anywhere.

£50m. At least.

 

[Dave the OAP]

As much as we can get for him?

 

[Right Brain Ronnie]

These are the (then) U22 central midfielders from Premier League who managed to reach at least 2000 minutes of game time last season:

Pape Matar Sarr Tottenham
Amadou Onana Everton
Moises Caicedo Chelsea
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool
Billy Gilmour Brighton
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea
James Garner Everton

The only one of these who cost less than £12m in their last move was indeed Billy, with Garner and Sarr costing their respective around £15m, both bought from clubs in desperate need for money.

£12m is just about enough to get you a promising midfielder from the Ecuadorian league.

If you want one of the most experienced young midfielders in the best league of the world.... £12m is not really getting you anywhere.

£50m. At least.

I went low at 35m , but I tend to agree with you. I would hold on to him as inflation is sure to be on an upward trend now Starmer is throwing the cash about, he be worth 80m in a year or so.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

He's not going, he's already in the Fab cab, so the italians can jog on

 

[Weststander]

I went low at 35m , but I tend to agree with you. I would hold on to him as inflation is sure to be on an upward trend now Starmer is throwing the cash about, he be worth 80m in a year or so.

It’s a fully costed plan

 

[Right Brain Ronnie]

Well I hope they costed for all those private jets, and Zelenskyys, cucumber sarnies at no10. He looks like a two sarnie man too.

 

[Freddo]

Wharton cost £22m.

“A once in a generation midfielder” according to media pundits in the second half of the season.

Don’t really understand the comparison. Wharton was playing in the championship, and is obviously worth a lot more than that to Palace now.

 

[Han Solo]

This.
WBG is probably a £20m player now. If he could add more assists and chip in with 4 or 5 goals a season, you could add another £10m

That is not happening as long as we play him as a rather stationary defensive playmaker who on average only shoots once per game, as last season.

Statistically (xg), Billy should have scored 0.77 goals from his shots last season... and less than one goal is also what happened. Last year his xG was 0.35.

I'm going to try to explain it one more time to everyone underrating King Billy:

Billy Gilmour is not supposed to score our goals. None of our players are going to get to less goal scoring opportunities than our DMC/DMCs. This is the case in almost every club. Billys job is not to put the ball in the goal. That is the main reason he isn't scoring goals.

No, Billys job - among other things - is to help his team mate put the ball in the goal. From the deep position he has, this will often be through the first or second pass in between one or two of their lines. The team mate he finds then find another team mate putting the ball in the goal.

Unfortunately, breaking the enemy lines with a pass at least as important as the eventual actual assist won't add to your numbers in the assist column on Transfermarkt, meaning anything you do will be overlooked by people who only watch football when they're drunk and euphoric, or drunk and in misery.

Billy has been playing as a DMC in both Norwich and Brighton because of his excellent technique, top class passing and composed decision making in the dangerous world of defensive playmaking. He was second only to Gross our best midfielder last season, as a 23-year old, playing in a position where the best ones are usually in their early 30s.

£12m, £20m or £30m is only happening in a world where a good player is going in the other way. But I'm rather sure we're keeping Billy for another year as he's on a verge of going from good to great. Meaning more fun and eventually more money.

TLDR: Billy is very good. His job isn't obvious to everyone, but it is to some. Billy is worth a lot of money, more than you think. Luckily he's almost certainly staying and will be a key player for us next season, just like he was in the last one.

 

[AmexRuislip]

Laughable!

 

[MJsGhost]

I voted £30m, which I take as including add-ons.
Some transfer 'value' is attributed to physical properties. WBG isn't blessed with pace or a muscular physique.
Some is attributed to raw potential. Sure, he's still young, but the football world has had enough of a look at him to know he's not the second coming of Iniesta.
He doesn't score, rarely assists. He isn't a midfield destroyer.
He's neat and tidy, with a decent passing range and tends to play forwards and often quickly.

I like him. I rate him (in the right team).

I just don't think he has the mystique of a very raw, young, physically blessed player whose ceiling is unknown, but on the basis of a small sample size is likely to be high. That's why I think a price comparison on the basis of experience with someone like Minteh is problematic.

That's why I say £30m, which is still a sh|t tonne of cash when you think about it (especially for a Scot )

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

If Man Utd have turned down £40m for Scott McTominay then wee Bilie is £50m+

Big Billy fan but McTominay scores goals, Billy doesn't. I'm not sure many would agree with your valuation.

 

[scooter1]

That is not happening as long as we play him as a rather stationary defensive playmaker who on average only shoots once per game, as last season.

Statistically (xg), Billy should have scored 0.77 goals from his shots last season... and less than one goal is also what happened. Last year his xG was 0.35.

I'm going to try to explain it one more time to everyone underrating King Billy:

Billy Gilmour is not supposed to score our goals. None of our players are going to get to less goal scoring opportunities than our DMC/DMCs. This is the case in almost every club. Billys job is not to put the ball in the goal. That is the main reason he isn't scoring goals.

No, Billys job - among other things - is to help his team mate put the ball in the goal. From the deep position he has, this will often be through the first or second pass in between one or two of their lines. The team mate he finds then find another team mate putting the ball in the goal.

Unfortunately, breaking the enemy lines with a pass at least as important as the eventual actual assist won't add to your numbers in the assist column on Transfermarkt, meaning anything you do will be overlooked by people who only watch football when they're drunk and euphoric, or drunk and in misery.

Billy has been playing as a DMC in both Norwich and Brighton because of his excellent technique, top class passing and composed decision making in the dangerous world of defensive playmaking. He was second only to Gross our best midfielder last season, as a 23-year old, playing in a position where the best ones are usually in their early 30s.

£12m, £20m or £30m is only happening in a world where a good player is going in the other way. But I'm rather sure we're keeping Billy for another year as he's on a verge of going from good to great. Meaning more fun and eventually more money.

TLDR: Billy is very good. His job isn't obvious to everyone, but it is to some. Billy is worth a lot of money, more than you think. Luckily he's almost certainly staying and will be a key player for us next season, just like he was in the last one.

Perhaps under Hurzeler our players WILL be encouraged to shoot more often, WBG will get his first goal for the club

 

[GT49er]

I voted £30m, which I take as including add-ons.
Some transfer 'value' is attributed to physical properties. WBG isn't blessed with pace or a muscular physique.
Some is attributed to raw potential. Sure, he's still young, but the football world has had enough of a look at him to know he's not the second coming of Iniesta.
He doesn't score, rarely assists. He isn't a midfield destroyer.
He's neat and tidy, with a decent passing range and tends to play forwards and often quickly.

I like him. I rate him (in the right team).

I just don't think he had the mystique of a very raw, young, physically blessed player whose ceiling is unknown, but on the basis of a small sample size is likely to be high. That's why I think a price comparison on the basis of experience with someone like Minteh is problematic.

That's why I say £30m, which is still a sh|t tonne of cash when you think about it (especially for a Scot )

Spot on with your analysis - although I voted £25M rather than £30M. £8M is just slamming down the phone time though.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Perhaps under Hurzeler our players WILL be encouraged to shoot more often, WBG will get his first goal for the club

I’m not sure how beneficial trying to get Wee Billy to shoot more often will be?

What I do believe is that a potential midfield 3 of Gruda, Wieffer and Groß will smash what we had last season out the park.

 

[Eeyore]

These are the (then) U22 central midfielders from Premier League who managed to reach at least 2000 minutes of game time last season:

Pape Matar Sarr Tottenham
Amadou Onana Everton
Moises Caicedo Chelsea
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool
Billy Gilmour Brighton
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea
James Garner Everton

The only one of these who cost less than £12m in their last move was indeed Billy, with Garner and Sarr costing their respective around £15m, both bought from clubs in desperate need for money.

£12m is just about enough to get you a promising midfielder from the Ecuadorian league.

If you want one of the most experienced young midfielders in the best league of the world.... £12m is not really getting you anywhere.

£50m. At least.

I think you need to check your pizza toppings my friend.

No club would bid anything near that for his signature. They would go to the mainland and get a better or equal option for half that money.

 

[Justice]

Crook is normally accurate are we to believe the £12m figure as it seems at least £10m short to me.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Wharton cost £22m.

“A once in a generation midfielder” according to media pundits in the second half of the season.

Currently the most overused phrase in football.

The number of players who have been labeled generational in the last few seasons suggests it's either a meaningless description or a generation spans no more than a couple of weeks.

 

[Surf's Up]

WBG is not the finished article, he is, imho, a great player in the making. The current offer from Napoli is derisive and at least £20m short if we even wanted to sell him, which we don’t.

 

[keaton]

A donkey in our eyes, but one big thing he has over Gilmour is goals. He keeps popping up with winners.

But he is not presumably going to improve at his age or have any resale and can do none of the basics required of a central midfielder in a decent team

 

[Doc Lynam]

I think some people are massively undervaluing BIlly.