Marshy
Well-known member
hopefully a decent amount, large majority's are not a good thing regardless of whos in.
And no im not voting Blue
And no im not voting Blue
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[Politics] How many seats will the Tories get ?
- Thread starter Uncle Spielberg
- Start date
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,237
This is a really good question. I really hope they sit on each others laps on one side and then on the other they have room for sun beds etc.
No way. I'll be gobsmacked (and ecstatic) if they get less than 100
I’d say around 120.
The Johnson majority in 2019 made me some decent cash at the bookies. I’m far less confident of this prediction. Feels like it has a margin of error of 40 ish either way.
The Johnson majority in 2019 made me some decent cash at the bookies. I’m far less confident of this prediction. Feels like it has a margin of error of 40 ish either way.
I’m hoping it’s very low. I get what you say about large majorities but the Tory party, for their own and everyone else’s benefit, really do need to reassess who and what they are and what they stand for…..being annihilated in this election will help this along.
I’m going for 100.
This thought will have Jacob Rees Mogg very happy.
This, i also predict that the Liberal Democrat’s will be the opposition
I agree with you there. It's hard to imagine turning around a near 400 majority even though few would have predicted what is happening today back in December, 2019. I hope after licking its wounds the party starts putting forward more conservative ideas. First and foremost, because over the coming years it will be such an important issue, a pledge to scrap the insane net zero promises which the Tories have sung along to. The damage the mad green policies will do could well be irreparable. But I think by 2029 a policy of "whatever it takes to keep the lights on, keep our homes heated and keep industry powered" will be a winner.
Marshy
Well-known member
Christ thats a scary thought haha
A huge labou majority and Lib Dems as opposition, it will be woke madness !
Would the speaker then have to spend the next four years hopping like David Shepherd used to at the cricket?
hart's shirt
Well-known member
How many seats will the Tories get?
With the benefit of an impartial outsider looking in, nothing other than electoral obliteration is on the cards.
After the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget, the Conservatives are no longer seen as the party of fiscal responsibility by the electorate.
Consistent scandals during the administration such as PPE contracts and Partygate undermined credibility with voters.
By betting the house (majority) on populist policies like 'Stop The Boats' and moving further right, they've conceded the centre.
Like any bell curve, this is where the majority of voters reside with moderate positions such as lower taxes, but good public services.
As nature abhors a vacuum, Starmer reinvents Labour post-Corbyn and moves to take the centre ground voters.
A war on 3 fronts with first time and swing voters to Labour, Lib Dems taking local issue seats and Reform dividing from the right.
So how many?
Based on the psychodrama of the last 5 years, 'at least one more than they deserve to get' is my pithy but truthful answer.
The electorate should rightly judge the current form of the Conservative Party and they will likely do so severely.
Less than 100 seats and 5 years minimum of political irrelevance await.
With the benefit of an impartial outsider looking in, nothing other than electoral obliteration is on the cards.
After the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget, the Conservatives are no longer seen as the party of fiscal responsibility by the electorate.
Consistent scandals during the administration such as PPE contracts and Partygate undermined credibility with voters.
By betting the house (majority) on populist policies like 'Stop The Boats' and moving further right, they've conceded the centre.
Like any bell curve, this is where the majority of voters reside with moderate positions such as lower taxes, but good public services.
As nature abhors a vacuum, Starmer reinvents Labour post-Corbyn and moves to take the centre ground voters.
A war on 3 fronts with first time and swing voters to Labour, Lib Dems taking local issue seats and Reform dividing from the right.
So how many?
Based on the psychodrama of the last 5 years, 'at least one more than they deserve to get' is my pithy but truthful answer.
The electorate should rightly judge the current form of the Conservative Party and they will likely do so severely.
Less than 100 seats and 5 years minimum of political irrelevance await.
US Seagull
Well-known member
They can call themselves CONFORM!
US Seagull
Well-known member
The most seats Labour have won is 418, the least the Tories have had is 156. I think both records will fall today.
I'm going to guess somewhere in the 120-130 range. And hoping Sunak becomes the first sitting PM to lose his seat. Just for the LOLZ.
I'm going to guess somewhere in the 120-130 range. And hoping Sunak becomes the first sitting PM to lose his seat. Just for the LOLZ.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,023
it would be very strange, they'd oppose by saying how Labour policies aren't enough and they should do more.
with a large rebelious backbench, could actually make things quite tricky to manage.
Bob!
Coffee Buyer
- Jul 5, 2003
- 11,636
With LD as the Official opposition though, a move to the left by Labour would be easier to do than it would be with raving right wingers having the opposition time.
US Seagull
Well-known member
I'd seen an analysis that suggested that the LD were already left of Labour since Labour have moved towards the center.
This is a realignment of British politics we are seeing.
I'm going 135.