[Politics] How many seats will the Tories get ?

[Uncle Spielberg]

How many seats will the Tories get ?

I am going for 156 which is 224 less than last time but it will be a lot higher than the sub 100 or even 60 imo

There are still a lot of people who will still vote Tory but will not admit it

I think there will be surprises tomorrow

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Farage will win his seat and I would not be surprised if Truss does as well such as is politics

 

[portlock seagull]

Less than 100 hopefully.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Less than 100 hopefully.

I think you will be disappointed

 

[Hugo Rune]

How many seats will the Tories get ?

I am going for 156 which is 224 less than last time but it will be a lot higher than the sub 100 or even 60 imo

There are still a lot of people who will still vote Tory but will not admit it

I think there will be surprises tomorrow

Are you putting your money where your estimate is?

Some good odds if you are dipping your toe!

 

[Bob!]

75

Though, unfortunately, I reckon that will be about 15-20 more than the LibDems.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Sunak basically commited politic suicide by calling this in July and not January when things would be much better especially interest rates. I think he threw a 7 as he wants out

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Are you putting your money where your estimate is?

Some good odds if you are dipping your toe!

View attachment 185097

For me that is buying money

 

[Iggle Piggle]

9.4 on Betfair Unc between 150 and 199 if you think that. I know you like a bet.

If I was betting I'd be between 100 and 149 at 2.6. Labour will win and there are more than you think who will vote Conservative. Why I'm not betting is the Reform factor. They won't win many seats but they will split the vote

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Here's the market for anyone interested

 

[portlock seagull]

I think you will be disappointed

Maybe, some predicting though. Regardless the Tory party is finished so it’s win win really.

 

[A1X]

If there’s one thing the British public can be relied on, it’s not giving the Tories a kicking even when they so thoroughly deserve it. They’ll be somewhere around 200 in the end.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

If there’s one thing the British public can be relied on, it’s not giving the Tories a kicking even when they so thoroughly deserve it. They’ll be somewhere around 200 in the end.

I think the shock tomorrow will be how well the tories did. They will do far better than predicted imo a large part is that swathes of people especially over 60 simply do not like or trust Starmer

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Tories will get over 150 seats that is a shue in

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Is this thread what the kids call copium?

 

[The Clamp]

I think the shock tomorrow will be how well the tories did. They will do far better than predicted imo a large part is that swathes of people especially over 60 simply do not like or trust Starmer

I agree.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Labour 38 percent
Conservative 24 percent
Reform 14 percent
Lib Dems 11 percent
Greens 5 percent
Others 8 percent

 

[Stato]

Shouldn't this thread be titled 'Was that 200 seats lost or 150 seats gained'?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Over 150 seats at 7 to 1 is a great bet

 

[jimhigham]

Tories will get over 150 seats that is a shue in

Perhaps not. If you haven’t watched him before, I can recommend Phil Moorehouse’s “A Different Bias” channel on YouTube. Phil is a fairly crotchety, Yorkshire based Labour supporter and former science teacher.

He’s big on statistical analysis and really knows his polling. He reads every poll, right down to the methodology and fieldwork. What he’s spotted is that many polling companies are making manual adjustments to their modelling to reflect better outcomes for the Tories, simply because they cannot believe their own data is that bad for them.

He’s also spotted shifts to Labour from the LibDems in areas where Labour are the second party, and similar for the LibDems where they are the best placed challenger. In other words, the polling data is showing a marked trend towards tactical voting.

And finally, he’s looked at how many seats are “safe” for the Tories and the LibDems. That’s to say seats where their lead is greater than 5%, representing a generous margin of error. The findings are genuinely startling. The Tories are only safe in approximately 30 seats, whereas the LibDems are closer to 55. While the Tories are forecasted in first place in more seats, those leads are slender and vulnerable, particularly if tactical voting is widespread.

Put all that in the mix and the Tories are in a genuine fight to finish second in terms of seats. They probably will be the second largest party but it isn’t a given.

And in answer to the OP’s question, the Tories will win more seats than they deserve.