How many points needed for automatic promotion?

[7oaksgull]

Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

1st 2nd 3rd
2009/10 95 86 85
2008/09 96 89 87
2007/08 92 82 80
2006/07 91 85 83
2005/06 82 79 76
2004/05 98 86 79
2003/04 90 83 82
2002/03 100 86 83
2001/02 90 84 83
2000/01 93 91 86

So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

We have 53 points from 27 games so it looks like another 35 points from the last 19 games will get us in the Championship.

We have the following games left:

Home:
Hartlepool
Plymouth
Carlisle
Tranmere
Notts County
Swindon
Shef Wed
Dag & Red
Southampton
Huddesfield

Away:
MK Dons
Yeovil
Brentford
Oldham
Dag & Red
Rochdale
Walsall
Colchester
Notts County

Will we get at least 35 points from these 19 games?

 

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

On paper we shouldnt LOSE another game all season. But then Bmth turned us over but I reckon we will get close. Maybe it will be a repeat of 2005/6 where only 82 points was enough to finish top?

 

[The Large One]

Firekin' stroll on.

Talk about chicken-counting...

 

[Simster]

I think a low points total will do it this year. It's quite a strong division by league 1 standards, and this has meant that no team has really steam-rollered the division.

 

[Badger]

Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

1st 2nd 3rd
2009/10 95 86 85
2008/09 96 89 87
2007/08 92 82 80
2006/07 91 85 83
2005/06 82 79 76
2004/05 98 86 79
2003/04 90 83 82
2002/03 100 86 83
2001/02 90 84 83
2000/01 93 91 86

So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

How did you work that out? 88 points wouldn't have got us promoted in 00/01 or 08/09.

As for this season, I reckon somewhere in the 80-85 bracket will be enough.

 

[Barrel of Fun]

2010/11 Matches 339 : Draws 87 - 25.66%
2009/10 Matches 552 : Draws 152 - 27.53%
2008/09 Matches 552 : Draws 147 - 26.63%
2007/08 Matches 552 : Draws 140 - 25.36%
2006/07 Matches 552 : Draws 139 - 25.18%
2005/06 Matches 552 : Draws 173 - 31.34%
2004/05 Matches 552 : Draws 149 - 26.99%
2003/04 Matches 552 : Draws 166 - 30.07%
2002/03 Matches 552 : Draws 150 - 27.17%
2001/02 Matches 552 : Draws 152 - 27.54%
2000/01 Matches 552 : Draws 151 - 27.36%

Percentage/amount of draws, thus depriving the points pool of 1 point per game.

 

[7oaksgull]

How did you work that out? 88 points wouldn't have got us promoted in 00/01 or 08/09.

As for this season, I reckon somewhere in the 80-85 bracket will be enough.

Sorry, the way I loked at is was in 00/01 the team finishing 3rd had 86 points. In 08/09 the team finishing third had 87 points. So 88 points would have been enough for the team finishing in second place...

 

[OSRGull]

Here are the final points for the top 3 teams in League One over the last 10 years:

1st 2nd 3rd
2009/10 95 86 85
2008/09 96 89 87
2007/08 92 82 80
2006/07 91 85 83
2005/06 82 79 76
2004/05 98 86 79
2003/04 90 83 82
2002/03 100 86 83
2001/02 90 84 83
2000/01 93 91 86

So 88 points would have been enough to get automatic promotion in any year.

We have 53 points from 27 games so it looks like another 35 points from the last 19 games will get us in the Championship.

We have the following games left:

Home:
Hartlepool -3
Plymouth-3
Carlisle-1
Tranmere-3
Notts County-3
Swindon-3
Shef Wed-1
Dag & Red-3
Southampton-1
Huddesfield-1

Away:
MK Dons-3
Yeovil-1
Brentford-1
Oldham-1
Dag & Red-3
Rochdale-1
Walsall-0
Colchester-0
Notts County-3

Will we get at least 35 points from these 19 games?

That's 34 points, and even that would take us to 87 so it's going to be hard.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Still need another 12wins. Definitely do-able but also far easier said than done. As Gus says we are potentially our own worst enemy this season. We have to remain focused ignore what the other teams are doing and maintain our good form.

 

[mcshane in the 79th]

Another 11 wins and a couple of draws would see us home, allowing us another 4 defeats, unless of course we end up drawing a lot of games. A lot of ifs and buts in there but if we target say 12 wins then we'll be promoted.

I would target these 16 games as great chances of securing maximum points, this would leave room for a few inevitable hiccups as well as the trickier games against SCC, Huddersfield and Oldham

Home:
Hartlepool
Plymouth
Carlisle
Tranmere
Notts County
Swindon
Shef Wed
Dag & Red

Away:
MK Dons
Yeovil
Brentford
Dag & Red
Rochdale
Walsall
Colchester
Notts County

To conclude, yes I think we'll do it

 

[nwgull]

If all of our promotion rivals were to average 2 points per games for their remaining games (and that's pessimitic since 2 points per game is league winning form), we'd need maximum of 85 points or more likely 84 points with our goal difference. So that would be another 31 points from 19 games, or 9 wins, 4 draws.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

It's less than an average of 2 points game, so win at home, draw away and that's it with 3 points to spare.

 

[severnside gull]

Gus' stated target is 2 points per game = 90 points which would see us safely promoted no matter what anyone else does. We are currently marginally off the pace but with two home games to come we should (hopefully) be pretty much on track at the end of the month. If we are there will be 16 games to go (8 home and 8 away). Maintaining a 2 points per game average is ideal because, not being achievable in any one match, it allows you to draw a game knowing you can make it up next time out - a slight easing of pressure perhaps? And as we go forward, 2 points a game over a shorter run of games should look more achievable.**


I do however, agree with nwgull that our challengers' form would have to be exceptional to deny us promotion with around 86 points



** we currently average a little over 2 points a game at home and a very creditable 1.5 points per game away from home so looked at another way - if we maintain our current form - we could attain something like 22 points from home matches and 13 away points. - which should be enough

 

[Barrel of Fun]

French Mistress table warning...


Current points form

 

[Sam Ovett]

Yay, 11 points clear!

 

[Bwian]

Firekin' stroll on.

Talk about chicken-counting...

1 more win should see us safe from relegation-although I think we're safe already. Not even Jeff Wood could get us relegated now

 

[Guy Fawkes]

How many points needed for automatic promotion?

1 point more than 3rd place

(*unless we finish level but have the better goal difference to finish 2nd)

 

[The French Mistress]

French Mistress table warning...


Current points form

Oh gould'n'bennett.........

 

[kevtherev]

86 points will go up this year, no doubt. Thats another 33pts, 11 wins dont care if we are first or second. That said it would be fantastic to go up as champions. To get a play off position now, would surely mean that our form has dipped and that is no way to go into the play offs. As confidence will be shot and other teams will have momentum.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

We should be going all out to amass over 100 points this season.