How many people in the UK have had covid to date?

[Yoda]

They reckon the first wave was under recorded by anywhere between 20 to 50 times the figures actually being recorded.

If that were the case, you can add anything between at least 2.5m & 6.5m to the current figure. Then add a further 10%-20% for asymptomatic that may never have been tested.

So a minimum of 6 million to a maximum of 11.5 million. Anywhere between 10 to 20 per cent of the population have been infected at some point.

 

[darkwolf666]

It’s not an approach, it’s a naturally occurring and welcome side effect of our immune systems in a pandemic and one that needs to be taken into consideration.

But mention herd immunity in public and you just get accused of being Dr Mengele.

But it IS being suggested as an approach. This was Dominic Cummings “approach” way back in February, and is clearly the approach of Ferguson now, he though unlike Cummings, as do the government, have the advantage of the vaccine being rolled out. So this time around the devastation won’t be so great and clearly by some like yourself and Marty McFly, seems to be palatable.

 

[RossyG]

Herd Immunity is a natural side effect of catching Covid. No one wants to see people catch it, but people already have by the million and are now immune (certainly for the time being). This needs to be studied. For one thing, it might slightly skew the figures for the vaccine’s efficacy.

Studying this doesn’t mean that people think granny is expendable.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Is Ferguson trusted again now? I thought he was shunned after his prediction of 250,000 deaths if no serious action was taken.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

But it IS being suggested as an approach. This was Dominic Cummings “approach” way back in February, and is clearly the approach of Ferguson now, he though unlike Cummings, as do the government, have the advantage of the vaccine being rolled out. So this time around the devastation won’t be so great and clearly by some like yourself and Marty McFly, seems to be palatable.

Patrick Vallance was one of the voices for herd immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

 

[e77]

Is Ferguson trusted again now? I thought he was shunned after his prediction of 250,000 deaths if no serious action was taken.

Bearing in mind we are unto 80,000 with action being taken I am not sure he should be so readily dismissed.

 

[Solid at the back]

Is Ferguson trusted again now? I thought he was shunned after his prediction of 250,000 deaths if no serious action was taken.

You realise we're at 80k with action? We would of easily hit 250k without any action. Govt should of listened to him much sooner.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

You realise we're at 80k with action? We would of easily hit 250k without any action. Govt should of listened to him much sooner.

That was my point, sorry.

I’ve seen the same people who mocked his prediction now agreeing with him on this.

 

[darkwolf666]

Herd Immunity is a natural side effect of catching Covid. No one wants to see people catch it, but people already have by the million and are now immune (certainly for the time being). This needs to be studied. For one thing, it might slightly skew the figures for the vaccine’s efficacy.

Studying this doesn’t mean that people think granny is expendable.

You clearly don't go on Facebook, Twitter or even on here until very recently, where many are and were advocating exactly this policy, with the caveat that grannie can shield (be locked away and forgotten).

 

[darkwolf666]

Patrick Vallance was one of the voices for herd immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

Yes, true, as was Boris, on the say so of his advisors, fortunately someone made them see sense!

 

[Billy the Fish]

Yes, true, as was Boris, on the say so of his advisors, fortunately someone made them see sense!

It's not about seeing sense, at that point in time there was no data about covid so they had to base their modelling on assumed factors. Once the situation became clear they changed the plan pretty quickly.

 

[darkwolf666]

It's not about seeing sense, at that point in time there was no data about covid so they had to base their modelling on assumed factors. Once the situation became clear they changed the plan pretty quickly.

You say tomato I say tomatoe...

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

One-in-five people across England may have had coronavirus, new modelling suggests, equivalent to 12.4 million people, rising to almost one in two in some areas.
It means that across England the true number of people infected to date may be five times as high as the total number of known cases according to the government dashboard.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

Thanks for posting.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/929ef3cd-8611-49b2-9f23-918dc3470166 PHE study finds that immunity gained from having had Covid appears similar to that gained from vaccines.

Again I am not suggesting it is good that so many people have had it. These findings do however suggest that a decent chunk of the population have decent immunity, which in conjunction with vaccines may be part of slowing the spread.

 

[darkwolf666]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/929ef3cd-8611-49b2-9f23-918dc3470166 PHE study finds that immunity gained from having had Covid appears similar to that gained from vaccines.

Again I am not suggesting it is good that so many people have had it. These findings do however suggest that a decent chunk of the population have decent immunity, which in conjunction with vaccines may be part of slowing the spread.

That’s a far more considered response - and hopefully yes things are SLOWLY moving in the right direction.

The infection figures are beginning to drop in the majority of areas and should be heading in the right direction, just in time to send kids back to school...

 

[Bozza]

Good piece in Science Mag today which use the Brazilian city of Manaus (where c70% of people are thought to have had it) as an illustration of how utterly catastrophic herd immunity by infection is, and can't be used as a strategy:

What the findings of Buss et al. definitively show is that pursuing herd immunity through naturally acquired infection is not a strategy that can be considered. Achieving herd immunity through infection will be very costly in terms of mortality and morbidity, with little guarantee of success. Although the duration and effectiveness of immunity in reducing transmission with vaccination is unclear, experience across several infectious diseases suggests that immunity can be boosted safely through vaccination, if required.

Even a mitigation strategy whereby the virus is allowed to spread through the population with the objective of keeping admissions just below health care capacity, as is done for influenza virus, is clearly mis- guided for SARS-CoV-2. Like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, this virus is optimally addressed with an aggressive suppression strategy. Governments need to focus on more precise NPIs, robust test/trace/isolate systems, bor- der control measures, mass testing, better treatments, and development and delivery of vaccines (15). This is the most sustainable path for countries out of this pandemic.​

Source >>> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6526/230.full.pdf

And, despite Manaus having such high levels of prior infection from their first wave in early 2020, their health system is currently under catastrophic collapse as the current wave rips though >>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/brazil-manaus-amazonas-covid-coronavirus