How long do you think this shit will go on and what happens if its really long?

[Swansman]

I've been thinking about this for a while.

People seem to take for granted that a vaccine will be done in 12-18 months (though there are no guarantees). But even if there is a vaccine, there's a good chance the immunity from it wont be very long - i.e. season flu vaccines generally only last for the season.

What is the end game really? Is this virus something we will have to battle forever, something we will always need to "stay alert" about?

 

[cheesy77]

I haven't read into how they make flu vaccines each year for a new strain. Is it just a variation to a standard 'base' flu vaccine, which makes it possible to do a new one each year?

If we do manage to get a covid 19 vaccine, and even if a new strain then comes along, why couldn't it be the same as the annual flu vaccine?

Excuse my ignorance on how flu vaccines work.

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[crodonilson]

A lot of people do seem to be burying their head in the sand and seem to think they can just cocoon themselves away until 12-15 months time eh n vaccine magically becomes available.

Just reading a report in BBC News about primary school children returning and get a bit exasperated by some of the comments...

Gurmeet Bhachu added: "No, my child is not going back to school until it is absolutely safe for them and teachers."

What constitutes absolutely safe? Nothing in life is absolutely safe, everytime you send a child to school there are risks and for children the risk is exceptionally low, in fact there are already probably more risks already in a school environment than what covid 19 presents to them.

Louise Richards said: "Many children are in families with at risk members. They can't go back. It will simply disadvantage those and put the rest at risk."

Fair point but does that mean no child should have the opportunity of a proper education experience in school because a small minority will not attend for whatever personal circumstances around the disease?

Suzanne Mattinson said she would not send her child back to school until there was a vaccine,

"If my hand is forced, I'll remove him formally and home school."

So what if there is no vaccine, or if the vaccine takes longer to develop or is not perfect in treating it?

It's very well for a wealthy minority who may be able to afford to home school their children but for the rest of us we need to get back to work and earn money and generate taxes that actually enables our children to get an education, and to be able to do that we need schools to be open for our children.

We will need to hope for the best but expect the worst, be innovative in our approach in the short term to mitigate the loss of life but also the long term effects this is doing to our economy, and ultimately we may just need to learn to live with it and the added risks as we eek our way back to normality.

 

[Notters]

Wise words [MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION]. I keep hearing people demand "guaranteed safety" on the news. It ain't going to happen.

Seems unlikely it'll last long enough for a vaccine to play a significant part due to herd immunity, subject to there being no significant mutations etc.

 

[oldboyroy]

By sound of things this virus simply won't be eradicated whatever, it's here to stay and people will die with it like any other winter illness ie flu and it's complications. Hopefully a vaccine can help prevent serious infections and deaths but I imagine some will die every year from Corona virus.

 

[e77]

I did hear a guy from Oxford University say their early impression was you will have to be inoculated every year but that wouldn't be the end of the world in the circumstances.

Nothing is guaranteed by essentially the entire scientific community have been offered limitless resources to do it so one would hope it won't take too long.

 

[Chicken Run]

I've been thinking about this for a while.

People seem to take for granted that a vaccine will be done in 12-18 months (though there are no guarantees). But even if there is a vaccine, there's a good chance the immunity from it wont be very long - i.e. season flu vaccines generally only last for the season.

What is the end game really? Is this virus something we will have to battle forever, something we will always need to "stay alert" about?

What about other pandemics that are bound to crop up, will the vaccine deal with those, do we now live in a society that will always be forever looking over its shoulder....

The end game may never appear in our lifetime!




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[Kinky Gerbil]

Wise words [MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION]. I keep hearing people demand "guaranteed safety" on the news. It ain't going to happen.

Seems unlikely it'll last long enough for a vaccine to play a significant part due to herd immunity, subject to there being no significant mutations etc.

I know they don’t mean it, but it really comes over like if they don’t get corona they will live forever.

 

[sparkie]

A lot of people do seem to be burying their head in the sand and seem to think they can just cocoon themselves away until 12-15 months time eh n vaccine magically becomes available.

Just reading a report in BBC News about primary school children returning and get a bit exasperated by some of the comments...

Gurmeet Bhachu added: "No, my child is not going back to school until it is absolutely safe for them and teachers."

What constitutes absolutely safe? Nothing in life is absolutely safe, everytime you send a child to school there are risks and for children the risk is exceptionally low, in fact there are already probably more risks already in a school environment than what covid 19 presents to them.

Louise Richards said: "Many children are in families with at risk members. They can't go back. It will simply disadvantage those and put the rest at risk."

Fair point but does that mean no child should have the opportunity of a proper education experience in school because a small minority will not attend for whatever personal circumstances around the disease?

Suzanne Mattinson said she would not send her child back to school until there was a vaccine,

"If my hand is forced, I'll remove him formally and home school."

So what if there is no vaccine, or if the vaccine takes longer to develop or is not perfect in treating it?

It's very well for a wealthy minority who may be able to afford to home school their children but for the rest of us we need to get back to work and earn money and generate taxes that actually enables our children to get an education, and to be able to do that we need schools to be open for our children.

We will need to hope for the best but expect the worst, be innovative in our approach in the short term to mitigate the loss of life but also the long term effects this is doing to our economy, and ultimately we may just need to learn to live with it and the added risks as we eek our way back to normality.

Not a chance my daughter is going back to school before September, and you have no right to cast judgement and tell me she has to.


Tool.

 

[Chicken Run]

Not a chance my daughter is going back to school before September, sndvyou have no right to tell me she has to.


Tool.

What do you think will change dramatically in the next 16 weeks?



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[sparkie]

What do you think will change dramatically in the next 16 weeks?



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No idea. The hope is the R value of the virus drops significantly.

Mind you with the VE Day congas I have my doubts.

By the way, I meant September at the earliest.

 

[vegster]

I'm starting to fear we are stuck with the virus and that there will be a continuing regular stream of deaths for years to come. The lockdown certainly hasn't eradicated it and already the pressure is mounting on the government to try to get back to normal.

The problem is that our social lives and working conditions can never change for the better to be completely safe and there is no guarantee that "herd immunity" will be realistic if the virus sticks around and mutates. Public transport and many working conditions are cramped and a hotbed of transmission. I can only see any long term hope if we truly become a 24 hour society, whereby we live and work in more distanced smaller groups in 8 hour shifts.
Of course this is not a healthy long term option for human beings, fighting against circadian rythmns causes major long term physical and mental health problems. Add this to the already huge health problems experienced by those in low paid/ minimum wage jobs who are eating poor quality processed food and self medicating with alcohol and we well on our way to the dystopian future often seen in Sci-fi films.

I can truly see a 2 or 3 speed economy where by privilege of birth some will be cosseted within a decent health and educational system which, will lead on to sociality distanced careers where they never have to risk mingling with the unhealthy and disease riddled masses who struggle to exist in a world of deprivation.

Money already buys privilege , privacy and space, expect this rich/poor divide to increase and worsen and you won't go far wrong.

 

[Chicken Run]

No idea. The hope is the R value of the virus drops significantly.

Mind you with the VE Day congas I have my doubts.

By the way, I meant September at the earliest.

If parents were given a choice, how would you feel about others who sent there children back to school?


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[sparkie]

If parents were given a choice, how would you feel about others who sent there children back to school?


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Others can do what they like.

 

[Chicken Run]

Others can do what they like.

I would irritate you though, looking out your window every day whilst other children went to school whilst yours stays at home.

I have a 16 yo daughter who starts BHASVIC in September, she will be going for the record.


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[sparkie]

I would irritate you though, looking out your window every day whilst other children went to school whilst yours stays at home.

I have a 16 yo daughter who starts BHASVIC in September, she will be going for the record.


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You wouldn't irritate me at all.


Well unless you cast judgement on me and told me what to do like the poster earlier in the thread.


If the R-value kept falling I'd be happy. If it didn't then I'd have my head in my hands at the unfolding disaster.

 

[Chicken Run]

You wouldn't irritate me at all.


Well unless you cast judgement on me and told me what to do like the poster earlier in the thread.


If the R-value kept falling I'd be happy. If it didn't then I'd have my head in my hands at the unfolding disaster.

Fair play[emoji106]


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[Solid at the back]

No idea. The hope is the R value of the virus drops significantly.

Mind you with the VE Day congas I have my doubts.

By the way, I meant September at the earliest.

I agree with this. If my son was old enough there would be absolutely zero chance of him going to school for the foreseeable

 

[crodonilson]

Not a chance my daughter is going back to school before September, and you have no right to cast judgement and tell me she has to.


Tool.

Fair enough, everyone has different circumstances and opinions, and many people will be similar to you but if we all take this approach it will be almost impossible to get the economy moving and if we are shutting down the economy until the last quarter of the year the consequences down the line will be catastrophic. I'm also not sure what will be in place to make schools that much safer in September than they will be in June.

Also this is a forum where people express their opinions, we all have one and it's good to have debate but if you're so precious as to have to resort to calling someone a tool for not agreeing with you then maybe this isn't for you. Maybe try and be a bit kinder, have a nice day.

 

[Swansman]

I'm starting to fear we are stuck with the virus and that there will be a continuing regular stream of deaths for years to come. The lockdown certainly hasn't eradicated it and already the pressure is mounting on the government to try to get back to normal.

The problem is that our social lives and working conditions can never change for the better to be completely safe and there is no guarantee that "herd immunity" will be realistic if the virus sticks around and mutates. Public transport and many working conditions are cramped and a hotbed of transmission. I can only see any long term hope if we truly become a 24 hour society, whereby we live and work in more distanced smaller groups in 8 hour shifts.
Of course this is not a healthy long term option for human beings, fighting against circadian rythmns causes major long term physical and mental health problems. Add this to the already huge health problems experienced by those in low paid/ minimum wage jobs who are eating poor quality processed food and self medicating with alcohol and we well on our way to the dystopian future often seen in Sci-fi films.

I can truly see a 2 or 3 speed economy where by privilege of birth some will be cosseted within a decent health and educational system which, will lead on to sociality distanced careers where they never have to risk mingling with the unhealthy and disease riddled masses who struggle to exist in a world of deprivation.

Money already buys privilege , privacy and space, expect this rich/poor divide to increase and worsen and you won't go far wrong.

A lot of interesting thoughts.

Personally I dont think this virus could be eradicated either. Its going to stick around. But if we look at the Asian flu and its "sequel" the HK flu - that would possible cause similar lockdowns if they came today - that flu is still around, only we seem less prone to it.

I also read somewhere that the Dutch (iirc) are on a mission to try to found out how the other coronaviruses (not SARS and MERS but the other four found in humans) manifested themselves when they first came around, or if these in "secret" have caused a lot of problems throughout the years.

We'll see I guess. I think I increasingly understand what our state epimediologist means when he says "we will need to find a way to live with this virus, because its unlikely to go away, even with vaccines."

I dont believe it will be as I initially thought - that we would battle this intensly for a year, maybe one and a half, and then it would all be over naturally or with medicine/vaccine. Instead I think its more likely that, depending on our level of fear and how much we can sacrifice in either direction (safety/freedom), this could go on for a very long time - possibly until the whole world got these temperature scanners and what not that they have in China. It could be five or ten ****ing years before there will be football with crowds, concerts etc... cinema was a dying concept, probably wont be any less dead in the forseeable future.

My initial "wow something (although terrible) is happening" "excitement" is gone. All that remains is really some anxiety over the future - in my case more so than fear of the virus itself tbh - and a wish to get back to our normal, dysfunctional shit global society.