[Football] How hard is it for a Championship striker to transition to the Premier league?

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Off of the top of my head I can only think of a handful of Strikers, in the past 10 years, who have stepped up and achieved a similar or better goals tally in the top division, compared to their Championship output.

Looking at the best Championship goal scorers from the past five seasons, who went on to play over 1000 minutes in the subsequent Premier league season, on average there is around a 30-40% drop in goals scored excluding penalties (G/90-PK), when playing at the highest level.

That means that anyone who moves up to the Premier League and scores over 60% of their own Championship output from the previous season should be considered as having a good season by their own standards.

So how has Maupay done?

Championship 2018/19
25 goals (3 pens)
Minutes played 3706
0.53 G/90-PK

Premier League 2019/20
10 goals (1 pens)
minutes played 2766
0.29 G/90-PK
55% of his Championship output

Premier League 2020/21
8 goals (3 pens)
Minutes played 2512
0.18 G/90-PK
34% of his Championship output

Using that 60% benchmark as a guide to Neal’s Premier League potential, the average number of goals we should realistically expect him to score a season, excluding penalties, is 13.

For those who think Ivan Toney is worth a punt, his numbers are:

30 goals (9 pens)
Minutes played 3850
0.49 G/90-PK

So he’d be expected to score 13 goals, excluding penalties, next season in the Premier League. The same as Maupay.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Here are the numbers for the other Championship top scorers from the past 5 seasons, who’ve gone on to play in the Premier League.

Glenn Murray
Championship 2016/17
23 goals (4 pens)
Minutes played 3439
0.50 G/90-PK

Premier League 2017/18
12 goals (4 pens)
Minutes played 2192
0.33 G/90-PK
66% of his Championship output

Premier League 2018/19
13 goals (4 pens)
Minutes played 2508
0.32 G/90-PK
64% of his Championship output

Aleksandar Mitrovic
Championship 2019/20
26 goals (4 pens)
Minutes played 3589
0.55 G/90-PK

Premier League 2020/21
3 goals (1 pens)
Minutes played 1312
0.14 G/90-PK
25% of his Championship output

Ollie Watkins
Championship 2019/20
25 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 4128
0.54 G/90-PK

Premier League 2020/21
13 goals (1 pens)
Minutes played 3058
0.35 G/90-PK
65% of his Championship output

Teemu Pukki
Championship 2018/19
29 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 3810
0.69 G/90-PK

Premier League 2019/20
11 goals (2 pens)
Minutes played 2886
0.28 G/90-PK
41% of his Championship output

Tammy Abraham
Championship 2018/19
25 goals (5 pens)
Minutes played 3138
0.57 G/90-PK

Premier League 2019/20
15 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 2215
0.61 G/90-PK
107% of his Championship output

Premier League 2020/21
6 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 1040
0.52 G/90-PK
91% of his Championship output

Diogo Jota
Championship 2017/18
17 goals (1 pens)
Minutes played 3612
0.39 G/90-PK

Premier League 2018/19
9 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 2355
0.34 G/90-PK
87% of his Championship output

Premier League 2019/20
7 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 2284
0.27 G/90-PK
69% of his Championship output

Premier League 2020/21
8 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 1038
0.69 G/90-PK
176% of his Championship output

Chris Wood
Championship 2016/17
27 goals (5 pens)
Minutes played 3621
0.55 G/90-PK

Premier League 2017/18
10 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 1624
0.55 G/90-PK
100% of his Championship output

Premier League 2018/19
10 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 2588
0.35 G/90-PK
64% of his Championship output

Premier League 2019/20
14 goals (1 pens)
Minutes played 2437
0.48 G/90-PK
87% of his Championship output

Premier League 2020/21
11 goals (2 pens)
Minutes played 2412
0.34 G/90-PK
62% of his Championship output


Andre Gray
Championship 2015/16
23 goals (4 pens)
Minutes played 3379
0.51 G/90-PK

Premier League 2016/17
9 goals (2 pens)
Minutes played 2259
0.28 G/90-PK
55% of his Championship output

Premier League 2017/18
5 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 1498
0.30 G/90-PK
59% of his Championship output

Premier League 2018/19
7 goals (0 pens)
Minutes played 1366
0.46 G/90-PK
90% of his Championship output

Abel Hernandez
Championship 2015/16
20 goals (2 pens)
Minutes played 2847
0.56 G/90-PK

Premier League 2016/17
4 goals (0 pens)
minutes played 1425
0.25 G/90-PK
45% of his Championship output

 

[Swansman]

So... sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.

Something that I think will surprise a lot of people is that sometimes a player has a good season and then follows it up with a poor, and vice versa, meaning that a poor season does not necessarily mean a player is junk / done / shite, while a good season does not necessarily mean that a player will always perform for eternity.

 

[Alba Badger]

What about Bamford? Looked poor in the Championship and looks far better in the Premier League.....

 

[Alba Badger]

Ivan Toney will be out of our price range with the numbers he got last season.

 

[Icy Gull]

What about Bamford? Looked poor in the Championship and looks far better in the Premier League.....

Don’t you just love football? I would have taken a BIG bet with anyone pre season that Maupay would score twice as many as Bamford this season

Probably will next season though

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

What about Bamford? Looked poor in the Championship and looks far better in the Premier League.....

Good shout, he only scored 14 non penalty goals last season, so didn't make the cut.

He is currently on 100% of his Championship output.

It will be interesting to see if he drops back to 60% next season. That will be 8 non penalty goals.

 

[Change at Barnham]

Maupay also has a strength of defending from the front and being very quick to close people down.
He is a very busy player, which may work in his favour or may mean that he's not 'goal hanging'.

He offers a lot more to our side than being our leading goalscorer.

I'm surprised that supporters or pundits don't discuss the lack of goal scoring from our midfield players compared to other clubs.
Bissouma, Lallana, Gross, Trossard have only scored 10 goals between them. (it's only 7 if we deduct Pascal's pens)

 

[Pavilionaire]

One of the things that has impressed me with Toney is his consistency. The longest he has gone without a goal or assist is 4 matches, so he has delivered throughout the season.

In addition to his 31 goals he also has10 assists, so joint 5th in the division.

And he did all of the above at the same rate for Peterborough.

There are strikers that you know have something about them that will get goals in the Prem. Murray was like that, Watkins, Tammy Abraham, Callum Wilson - and I think Toney will be another.

 

[banjo]

Maupay also has a strength of defending from the front and being very quick to close people down.
He is a very busy player, which may work in his favour or may mean that he's not 'goal hanging'.

He offers a lot more to our side than being our leading goalscorer.

I'm surprised that supporters or pundits don't discuss the lack of goal scoring from our midfield players compared to other clubs.
Bissouma, Lallana, Gross, Trossard have only scored 10 goals between them. (it's only 7 if we deduct Pascal's pens)

Trossard should be scoring more, but saying that hasn’t had the rub of the green.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

One of the things that has impressed me with Toney is his consistency. The longest he has gone without a goal or assist is 4 matches, so he has delivered throughout the season.

In addition to his 31 goals he also has10 assists, so joint 5th in the division.

And he did all of the above at the same rate for Peterborough.

There are strikers that you know have something about them that will get goals in the Prem. Murray was like that, Watkins, Tammy Abraham, Callum Wilson - and I think Toney will be another.

I thought the same of Teemu Pukki, 29 non penalty goals in 2018/19, but only 9 in the Premier League the following season.

Drops back down to the Championship and has so far scored 21 goals.

 

[Seasider78]

Championship strikers are either promoted with or join bottom half premier league team who are usually battling for survival so do not create anywhere near the amount of chances as you do at the top end of the championship. For example in our first season in the PL we had the second lowest number of shots in the whole division at 371 and relied on tough defence and Murray’s clinical finishing to scrap for the points. That is a million miles away from the waves of attacks we saw in the championship.

Bamford translation from championship to PL success this season is probably more to do with Leeds style in that they are still going at teams resulting in Bamford having the 3rd highest number of shots in the league

 

[Swansman]

I thought the same of Teemu Pukki, 29 non penalty goals in 2018/19, but only 9 in the Premier League the following season.

Drops back down to the Championship and has so far scored 21 goals.

Obviously its also about service. How many goals Pukki/Maupay/anyone would have scored with the help of Grealish, Traoré, Luiz, Cash etc is anyones guess.

 

[BluesRockDJ]

Kieffer Moore at Cardiff, anyone ?

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Obviously its also about service. How many goals Pukki/Maupay/anyone would have scored with the help of Grealish, Traoré, Luiz, Cash etc is anyones guess.

True, Jota's 8 goals in 1000 minutes for Liverpool is a great example.

What doesn't help Maupay's case is his shooting accuracy. It doesn't matter who sets you up if you don't hit the target.

 

[Swansman]

True, Jota's 8 goals in 1000 minutes for Liverpool is a great example.

What doesn't help Maupay's case is his shooting accuracy. It doesn't matter who sets you up if you don't hit the target.

Of course the quality of the pass matters, just like the quality of the shot. The pass often affects the quality of the shot.

 

[Superphil]

Ollie Watkins, 13 league goals from 33 league appearances. Only a slightly lower ratio of goals to games, 132 league games for Brentford, 45 goals.