[Albion] How good are we really ?

[FatSuperman]

Luck has nothing to do with it -- it's up to the manager. Or down to the manager.

One or the other, tho...

Fine, luck does not exist, and I believe that way too. After all, with enough information, you can predict exactly whether a shot will go in. If you know the motion of the ball before it is struck, it's spin, it's weight, the surface tension, the grass it is on and the grass in front of it, the wind speed, direction, the moisture in the air, the temperature, the angle the ball is struck, the velocity, the spin, absolutely every piece of information about every molecule involved, and how they are affected by the action taken.... etc etc etc. However, in real life, we just lump all that as 'luck', since we cannot predict any of that remotely accurately, and certainly not on the fly in a footballer's brain.

What tiny, miniscule change would have to be made for those 5 woodwork shots to have gone into the net against Man U? What if a perfect shot was put off just a tiny amount, by an errant shoelace end changing the angle a tiny amount? Is that luck, or poor planning for not tying the lace differently? Or what about if the lace made the difference so it did go in!! Did the player take the lace into account in that case? Of course not. It is all a combination of luck and skill.

Near enough everyone watching says we have got better, objectively better. The results just haven't followed yet.

 

[BeHereNow]

The trouble is, many of us will say that 'hitting the post five times' just means you aren't good enough, because you've had 5 shots off-target there. I just don't understand that mentality. Surely the vast majority of us have not only watched most our lives, but have actually played the game a fair amount - surely as kids we remember how much chance is involved in actually managing to score a goal. We seem to attribute everyone else's shots as clinical / skilful rather than lucky, and our shots as poor attempts, rather than unlucky. It's clearly a mix of all things.

I mean, the talent that Prichard must posses to beat Stockdale, bounce the ball off the crossbar and hit him in the back as he dives. What an astonishing player. We should have tried to sign him.

We are so much better than last season, the stats prove that, performances aren’t based solely on points or goals.

The Palace game is a great example of how the better team lost. It can happen.

If we played Manchester City and they had 70% possession, 10 corners, 15 shots on target, hit the post 5 times and they score an own goal from our only attack to win it 1 nil, are people people going to pretend that Brighton & Hove Albion are the better team? We clearly wouldn’t be, nor would it be down to the manager.

Also, I’ll add that not hitting the post (as opposed to hitting it) is not a skill. If anything, you could say it’s more of a skill to hit the post!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The 2 points we got in 4 games v Palace and West Brom could easily, easily be 12.

What a difference that would make to the table. It would mean the much talked about legendary "Top Ten".

 

[Stat Brother]

Listening to this weeks Tuesday Club podcast and all Alan is saying is "if" 'if this game' 'if that game' 'those points dropped' 'we'd be top 4'.

Dunno why it sounds so familiar!


The Midfield General has just suggested Arsenal throw the transfer war chest at Bissouma.

 

[BeHereNow]

The 2 points we got in 4 games v Palace and West Brom could easily, easily be 12.

What a difference that would make to the table. It would mean the much talked about legendary "Top Ten".

Exactly, but for a couple of very dodgy VAR decisions and missed penalties we are deemed a bottom 5 side

 

[Jim in the West]

Pick the bones out of that. We are great and shit at the same time.

[Tweet]1374367990712389635[/Tweet]

Interesting stuff....but there's no limit to the number of shots you can have - so logically a better stat is simply the NUMBER of shots on target. On that basis, we're in 12th position (across the whole EPL, just one on-target shot behind Arsenal).

 

[kjgood]

Now you can go down the table never lies road but then this thread is probably not for you.

We’ve pinched a few points here and there but generally the luck and our poor finishing has cost us dear. It’s not even lack of quality in the supply is it ..........It’s being clinical.....

SO I RECKON

We should be on 40 points above Leeds and Palace in 11th place.
And I don’t believe I’ve been overly generous.

Where do you think we should be ?

Sorry we are where we should be.

 

[Live by the sea]

Just not missing both pens against West Brom & beating palace would put us mid table - so I don’t think that’s a big stretch .

 

[Caveman]

Probably about 12th and definitely above Palace, they were so shit but still manage to steal 4 points.

Some stand out games that still give me nightmares ..

Manu Utd hitting the woodwork FIVE times and that penalty being awarded when half the players were getting on the team coach.
Sheffield Utd and 10 men then Ali J hitting the post from 3 yards out.
West Brom and missing 2 penalties and Dunks legitimate goal being cancelled by the clown ref
Palace and Leicester with late winners when they didn’t deserve them.

I am sure there are others but Lady Luck certainly hasn’t been so kind to us this season.

 

[Stat Brother]

I am sure there are others but Lady Luck certainly hasn’t been so kind to us this season.

said every football fan, of every football team, every season, football has been played.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

said every football fan, of every football team, every season, football has been played.

I'm pretty sure that isn't true. I don't think many of us suggested we were particularly unlucky 2018/19.

2016/17, I would have said we were pretty unlucky not to have gone up automatically, or not have injuries as long as your arm for the play offs.

I would then in reverse say we more than had our fair share of luck to make the playoffs in 2014/15.

Not every fan is devoid of objective thought.

Just read what the neutrals are saying, the writers and what nots if you feel it's all biased subjectivity.

 

[vagabond]

Indeed, most pundits would rather watch us than Palace but ask them who they'd back to visit a top six side and snatch an away win and they'd probably say Palace.

To be fair we did visit the PL and European champions and get a convincing win...

 

[vagabond]

I'm pretty sure that isn't true. I don't think many of us suggested we were particularly unlucky 2018/19.

2016/17, I would have said we were pretty unlucky not to have gone up automatically, or not have injuries as long as your arm for the play offs.

I would then in reverse say we more than had our fair share of luck to make the playoffs in 2014/15.

Not every fan is devoid of objective thought.

Just read what the neutrals are saying, the writers and what nots if you feel it's all biased subjectivity.

Correct.

I’d go one further, I think we were LUCKY in Hughton’s final season to stay up. I recall poor old Cardiff being on the end of some outrageous decisions.

We probably should have gone down then.

This season has unquestionably seen us on the wrong side of luck more often than not, I accept it and don’t particularly harp on about it, But as it’s being discussed that’s my feeling.

 

[FindonFan]

We are probably not quite as good as we would like to think we are - but we are better than we thought we were 2 weeks ago.

 

[kuzushi]

The fact that many fans feel that we "should" be higher in the league than we are is not evidence of them being deluded.

When we were winning game after game in the Championship under Chris Hughton, IMHO it felt as if we were often getting away with it somehow. We were getting the results, despite not looking that convincing, many times hanging on to a one goal lead to scrape three points. Now the situation seems to have reversed. We do look quite convincing all over the pitch except when it comes to the final product in front of goal. Get that last bit of the puzzle right, which maybe the Newcastle game was a sign of beginning to happen, and we will be much higher up the table.

So much of the foundations are there: good in defence, good in midfield, creating plenty of chances, attractive football..

Personally I feel that we are on the brink of something really good.

 

[Stat Brother]

Probably about 12th and definitely above Palace, they were so shit but still manage to steal 4 points.

Some stand out games that still give me nightmares ..

Manu Utd hitting the woodwork FIVE times and that penalty being awarded when half the players were getting on the team coach.
Sheffield Utd and 10 men then Ali J hitting the post from 3 yards out.
West Brom and missing 2 penalties and Dunks legitimate goal being cancelled by the clown ref
Palace and Leicester with late winners when they didn’t deserve them.

I am sure there are others but Lady Luck certainly hasn’t been so kind to us this season.

Why are you and all the other 12th were it not for lady luck, also not taking into account:-

- playing Spurs' without Kane and Son.
- playing Liverpool the game after their 'shield of invincibility' got smashed.
- scoring a weirdly deflected goal at Anfield against an inferior keeper.
- hanging onto a point home v West Brom (thanks Maty)
- playing Newcastle at their lowest ebb, without Wilson.

and that's just the ones I can remember off the top of my head.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Now you can go down the table never lies road but then this thread is probably not for you.

We’ve pinched a few points here and there but generally the luck and our poor finishing has cost us dear. It’s not even lack of quality in the supply is it ..........It’s being clinical.....

SO I RECKON

We should be on 40 points above Leeds and Palace in 11th place.
And I don’t believe I’ve been overly generous.

Where do you think we should be ?

I think that's about right.

I really believe we're a top class finisher way from being a top 10 team.

 

[blue-shifted]

To me the most compelling evidence has been the bookmakers odds

We've always been very long to go down, longer than teams we've been below. They've seen something in us, and it's blatantly not weight of money being bet. The markets have opened for individual games making us favourites to beat teams above us.

 

[blue-shifted]

Why are you and all the other 12th were it not for lady luck, also not taking into account:-

- playing Spurs' without Kane and Son.
- playing Liverpool the game after their 'shield of invincibility' got smashed.
- scoring a weirdly deflected goal at Anfield against an inferior keeper.
- hanging onto a point home v West Brom (thanks Maty)
- playing Newcastle at their lowest ebb, without Wilson.

and that's just the ones I can remember off the top of my head.

As for the injuries you've said. There's been more this season than any other, for well documented reasons. We've had 3 of the first names on the team sheet out for extended periods

At Anfield, we were only the second team to beat them, it's not like we were 5th in the 6 game run or something. Absolutely nobody in the media was suggesting the game was a smash and grab, despite the slightly odd goal.

And for every game you can mention where we've hung on, there are at least 3 where someone has hung on against us

 

[Uter]

For those that like this sort of thing, this is a chart of our expected goals for (green) and against (black) since 2017/18, with trendlines.



A few notes:

Stats from UnderStat.
10 point moving average used.
We were incredibly lucky to stay up in 2018/19. We sucked.
Our performances seem to drop at the end of every season.
Our defence and attack are stronger than they have ever been in the PL.