[Football] How few points to stay up

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Top use of the word 'divs'

Some Chelsea fella was on Twitter the other day about how teams between eighth and fourteenth (i.e. Brighton) in the league are 'mediocre'. Gotta be honest, I'd take 'mediocre' if it means that Brighton and Hove Albion are competing against and – in some cases – outplaying the best teams in the country and are deemed the ninth best team in the league.

Without fully getting on the 'Remember where we were 25 years ago' bandwagon, the transformation – even from a few years ago – is massive. And yes, a lot of money has been spent by the Albion, but then it's also been spent by everyone else. By clubs that are currently below us in the table.

I honestly wonder what some people want and/or expect sometimes...

I bet that Chelsea fan didn't even know where Stamford Bridge was pre Abromvich when Chelsea regularly found themselves mediocre or worse.

 

[dazzer6666]

None of Watford, Burnley or Norwich are going to be getting near 36 points. They'll be lucky to get to 30, to get to 36+ is going to need them going from relegation form to similar form we've shown in the first half of the season.

I'd agree - they'd each need something like 5/6 wins to get to 36 - they currently have 4 between them. One of them might - just might - do it but it's quite unlikely.

 

[macbeth]

Think he is on the verge of earning himself a bigger move than to Brighton tbh.

everyone said that about matheus pereira last season, no big clubs came in for him and now he's playing in saudi arabia

 

[kjgood]

I'd agree - they'd each need something like 5/6 wins to get to 36 - they currently have 4 between them. One of them might - just might - do it but it's quite unlikely.

That is probably right, but history and statistics show that we need 36. If our form did dip and although I think we are far too good to bomb badly you never know. Not comfortable till we reach that number then we can go on to beat our highest number of points ever achieved in the top flight.

Just my view, but what do I know, my foresight hasn't won me the lottery as yet.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

I'd agree - they'd each need something like 5/6 wins to get to 36 - they currently have 4 between them. One of them might - just might - do it but it's quite unlikely.

5 wins would still mean they'd need to pick up between 8-10 draws depending on current points total. I just can't see it happening. They'd all need to get more than twice as many points in the second half of the season to what they've picked up in the first half. The more I look at it the more I agree with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that the 27 points we have now may actually be the point we reached safety this season.

 

[dazzer6666]

That is probably right, but history and statistics show that we need 36. If our form did dip and although I think we are too good to bomb badly you never know. Not comfortable till we reach that number then we can go on to beat our highest number of points ever achieved in the top flight.

Just my view, but what do I know, my foresight hasn't won me the lottery as yet.

Would be interested to see how many teams on 27pts after 19 games have gone down. Strongly suspect it's none

 

[dazzer6666]

5 wins would still mean they'd need to pick up between 8-10 draws depending on current points total. I just can't see it happening. They'd all need to get more than twice as many points in the second half of the season to what they've picked up in the first half. The more I look at it the more I agree with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that the 27 points we have now may actually be the point we reached safety this season.

I don't disagree.......

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

We've only been in the bottom 3 once, after two games of our very first PL season. The draw against Watford in our third game was enough to climb out of the bottom 3 and we've never been back since.

We briefly went top when Lewis Dunk scored against Southampton in the 19-20 season before VAR ruled it out for offside against Dan Burn.

Think it was Trossard against West Ham wasn't it?

 

[Bold Seagull]

That is probably right, but history and statistics show that we need 36. If our form did dip and although I think we are far too good to bomb badly you never know. Not comfortable till we reach that number then we can go on to beat our highest number of points ever achieved in the top flight.

Just my view, but what do I know, my foresight hasn't won me the lottery as yet.

Errrr yeah we do know that there is no way on earth we're not picking up at least 9 points from 19 games. I'll stick my neck out on that one!

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Think it was Trossard against West Ham wasn't it?

It could have been both times actually. I've got a screenshot of the live table on my phone when Dunk scored against Southampton and that shows us top for those brief few moments.

 

[smillie's garden]

sweat like Prince Andrew flying a Sea King.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Would be interested to see how many teams on 27pts after 19 games have gone down. Strongly suspect it's none

I've gone back through the last 5 seasons and the highest number of points a relegated side has had at the half way point was Bournemouth with 20 points in 2019-20 season. The most points picked up by a relegated side in the second half of the season is 21, by Hull 2016-17 and Watford 2019-20.

And for extra clarity when West Ham got relegated with 42 points in 2002-03 season at the half way point they were bottom of the table with 14 points from 19 games. They got 28 points (7wins and 7 draws) in the second half of the season and it still wasn't enough. Can anyone see Norwich, Watford or Burnley being good enough to get anywhere near that many points?

 

[lizard]

Everyone keeps mentioning Norwich, Burnley and Watford, but that isn't the current bottom three.
I'm told Newcastle have several billion in blood-money to spend but unless they pull off at minimum three-four top quality signings, that all hit the ground running, they are still likely to struggle.
Norwich I get, they are unsurprisingly poor.
But Burnley and/or Watford could still make a fist of it.
Don't forget although historically unlikely, Everton were maybe the worst side we've seen all season. Many years a team is pulled down into the mire and they seem to be lacking the vital basics for a relegation scrap, poorly organised, little fight etc.
And now Bielsa's been found out, Leeds look vulnerable, although I think they'll probably be fine.

I like messing with stats and numbers and reckon 34 may be safe with goal difference.
So long as we don't lose the next ten on the bounce, we can look forward to the rest of the season in a manner we haven't previously been able to since promotion.

 

[Norman Potting]

Why can't we be positive and have "...how many points to get into Europe next season..." ?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Why can't we be positive and have "...how many points to get into Europe next season..." ?

Precisely. I have been avoiding this thread because I imagined it whiffed of a lack of ambition, and yet again NSC has failed to disappoint me.

 

[Jeremiah]

I reckon 30 points and it's done. Wouldn't it be nice to do it a week Friday

 

[Live by the sea]

Newcastle will throw a lot of money around in the transfer window & might get out of trouble but there’s no guarantee that the 3/4 new players they need will hit the ground running but I suspect they will finish 4th from bottom .

I think there will also be a small improvement from Norwich & Watford not sure about Burnley though .

Looking at the games left , The magic number to stay up this season is I believe 35 with the best goal difference.

 

[shingle]

38 points

11 more from ..... 19 games.