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House prices to rise 50% in next 10 years, London to double...



Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
63,039
The Fatherland
My eldest son seems to be in a similar position to you, all he's likely to get in Brighton & Hove is a studio flat of which many don't meet many lenders criteria. He's decided to look at Worthing and Lancing for a more desirable home.

It's a real shit state of affairs. I really do feel for folk like your son.
 




Billy the Fish

Technocrat
Oct 18, 2005
17,594
Haywards Heath
For anyone savvy with these possible rises, please feel free to offer your two cents.

I'm a young potential first time buyer.

I've got a mortgage agreement in principal with my bank which is approx £140k.
I've got the deposit required.

Should I pretty much go out and find something ASAP?
If yes to the above, would you advise getting the best I can in Brighton & Hove or get something a little bigger/nicer further out towards (or in) Worthing?

Cheers!

If you've got it agreed then buy something now before it gets more expensive. Getting a mortgage 4 years ago is one of the best decisions I've made, and I consider myself very lucky to have had the means at the right time.

Go where you'll be comfortable. Brighton will always appreciate faster, I bought in mid sussex at the same time as a mate did in Brighton for the same price. His is flat is now valued way higher than my house
 


KingstonSeagull

New member
May 1, 2013
2,185
Shoreditch
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35102130

Estate Agents talking their own book up? Interest rates can only go up and income to price ratio's are already at record levels, surely the fuel to the fire is running out..

Completely agree, I have a Masters in Econometrics and the only way rates are going is up and logic would state that centuris paribus as a result demand for purchasing housing would decline, however then you would probably see a steep incline in rental yields causing abnormal profits in the rental market causing investors to find the London property market extremely attractive thus increasing property prices once again. I think that they will steadily rise but I highly doubt at the rate in which they are saying in this article.

I think a lot of this sort of analysis is to look at trends oh in the past 5 years it has gone up by x therefore in 10 years it will have to be y!
 


happypig

Staring at the rude boys
May 23, 2009
8,216
Eastbourne
For anyone savvy with these possible rises, please feel free to offer your two cents.

I'm a young potential first time buyer.

I've got a mortgage agreement in principal with my bank which is approx £140k.
I've got the deposit required.

Should I pretty much go out and find something ASAP?
If yes to the above, would you advise getting the best I can in Brighton & Hove or get something a little bigger/nicer further out towards (or in) Worthing?

Cheers!

Can you decorate and do DIY ? If not, are you willing to learn ?
I would buy a flat that needs updating in a desirable area and do it up yourself; you can do this over a period of time and then you're not just relying on property price rises, you're adding value (people are willing to pay a premium for a nicely decorated/equipped place).
For example, a few years back I bought a studio flat in a nice block in Eastbourne that had been rented out for several years and was very "tired". I paid £70k. I spent a few months doing it up (rewired, new basin, retiled kitchen/bathroom, redecorated & recarpeted). cost me about £3k including mortgage payments. Sold it for £81k five months later. Was looking for next project when the property crash happened.
 


StonehamPark

#Brighton-Nil
Oct 30, 2010
10,133
BC, Canada
My eldest son seems to be in a similar position to you, all he's likely to get in Brighton & Hove is a studio flat of which many don't meet many lenders criteria. He's decided to look at Worthing and Lancing for a more desirable home.

Yeah it's a nightmare to be honest.
The Help to Buy schemes are even worse as the property prices seem ok but add on a 'monthly rent' to the cost. So you end up with 35%-50% the value of the property but paying around 100% the full property mortgage price.
Doesn't seem to be any real help for young/first timers.


If you've got it agreed then buy something now before it gets more expensive. Getting a mortgage 4 years ago is one of the best decisions I've made, and I consider myself very lucky to have had the means at the right time.

Go where you'll be comfortable. Brighton will always appreciate faster, I bought in mid sussex at the same time as a mate did in Brighton for the same price. His is flat is now valued way higher than my house

Yeah I'm kind of in a panic at the moment trying to find something, only 1 place that fits the bill, so fingers crossed.
 




surrey jim

Not in Surrey
Aug 2, 2005
18,165
Bevendean
For anyone savvy with these possible rises, please feel free to offer your two cents.

I'm a young potential first time buyer.

I've got a mortgage agreement in principal with my bank which is approx £140k.
I've got the deposit required.

Should I pretty much go out and find something ASAP?
If yes to the above, would you advise getting the best I can in Brighton & Hove or get something a little bigger/nicer further out towards (or in) Worthing?

Cheers!

Have you considered subletting part of the property? When my Mrs and I first purchased our house we did so letting out two [of the three] bedrooms to students. This gave us a cash in hand amount per month which we used to bring down the mortgage payment. Whilst not ideal we would not be able to live in a place like we do now without.

I would also recommend speaking to @Uncle Spielberg, he he did a fantastic deal on remortgage
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,189
Lancing
£140k total budget (£130k mortgage).

Just had a look in Newhaven and there's slim-pickings on Right Move with my budget.

Do you need a second opinion re mortgage ?
 


StonehamPark

#Brighton-Nil
Oct 30, 2010
10,133
BC, Canada
Have you considered subletting part of the property? When my Mrs and I first purchased our house we did so letting out two [of the three] bedrooms to students. This gave us a cash in hand amount per month which we used to bring down the mortgage payment. Whilst not ideal we would not be able to live in a place like we do now without.

I would also recommend speaking to @Uncle Spielberg, he he did a fantastic deal on remortgage

Great idea, however my bank will only offer me £130k so I couldn't even find more than a 1 bed property even if I wanted!

Do you need a second opinion re mortgage ?

You were a great help a few months or so back, unfortunately due to circumstances I had to cancel my plans earlier in the year.
But yes, if you wouldn't mind, I could use all the help I can get. :thumbsup:
 




darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,728
Sittingbourne, Kent
I've got a good idea. Why don't councils have houses built and then they could rent them out to people who can't afford to get onto the property ladder. They could charge those in their houses a reasonable rent, but not one so unaffordable as the private rental system - oh damn! it's been done and some idiot sold them all!!!
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,858
Uffern
It is utter bollocks. If you read the article, they have just taken the rise from the last few months and interpolated forward 10 years. It takes no economic factors into consideration at all.
We had similar forecasts in 2007 after similar steep rises just before the credit crunch.

Exactly. We saw the same phenomenon on the Heathrow thread the other day, when people were saying that because there'd been a steep increase in air travel in the past 20 years there will be a continuing steep increase. Past performance is no indicator of future performance - anything could change. Suppose a Corbyn government came in and proposed a million new council houses a year or made capital gains tax applicable to your main residence or tripled council tax on second homes - all of these would have an effect on house prices
 


scamander

Well-known member
Aug 9, 2011
598
as someone who will never own a home (unless I win the lottery) it's interesting hearing from all parties. Letting agents talk up the market, whilst others chip in predicting a crash. I always hear about the bubble bursting as well.

Then there are the proposed changes for buy-to-lets and overseas owners. Wonder what effect they will have?
 




Dec 29, 2011
8,216
Rent control, as seen in other parts of Europe, and far more aggressive taxation on rental income would be a good start in helping to stop this madness.
Or make it so houses weren't a main source of income for some super wealthy people. How many times have we heard, 'he owns property and rents it out'. It's beyond a joke now. Maximum two house limit, anything after that can only be rented at a nominal level given to people who need it. Logistically would be hard, but could be done with a bit of effort.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,858
Uffern
It's a real shit state of affairs.

That makes it sound like the current housing market came about by accident. The reason that we have house prices out of reach of average buyers is because people vote for it. And people vote for it because 70 percent of the electorate are home owners (and when it comes to people who actually vote, it's probably closer to 90 percent). They're perfectly happy with the status quo and house prices can triple for all they care. That's fair enough, that's democracy for you, but don't make out house prices are this way because some bad fairy waved a magic wand
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,620
Goldstone
far more aggressive taxation on rental income would be a good start in helping to stop this madness.
Wouldn't it just mean that the landlords are overseas, where they don't bother paying tax on their rental income?
 


RexCathedra

Aurea Mediocritas
Jan 14, 2005
3,509
Vacationland
I've got a good idea. Why don't councils have houses built and then they could rent them out to people who can't afford to get onto the property ladder. They could charge those in their houses a reasonable rent, but not one so unaffordable as the private rental system - oh damn! it's been done and some idiot sold them all!!!

Hard sell, social housing, in a country where one major political party, and roughly half the political nation, doesn't believe that the noun 'society' or the adjective 'social' refer to any actually-existing thing...
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,858
Uffern
Suppose the Earth was hit by an Asteroid? Much the same probability... :lolol:

Think you're a bit out on that one. Current odds on Corbyn being next PM 8-1. Chances of asteroid 2012 TC04 hitting the earth in 2017 about 450,000 -1. Corbyn was also 200-1 to win the labour leadership
 






Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,858
Uffern


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Jul 23, 2003
37,643
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
As someone lucky enough to be on the housing ladder I find myself in an odd position. My politics and the fact I have two young kids who will need a house themselves in the future would mean that in theory I would be in favour of a price crash. However, the reality is, if it did. I'd financially ruin myself and risk the roof that's over their heads now.

Don't hang out for Corbyn to fix this mess. Anyone with a mortgage who votes for him will be guilty of a mixture of unbelievable altruism and gross idiocy.
 


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