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House prices to crash



Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
House prices will not CRASH, they will FLUCTUATE as they've always done. If there was a sudden sharp drop there would soon be a glut of buyers forcing prices back up again. It's supply and demand, nothing else.

Not if they can't get a mortgage.
 




The Antikythera Mechanism

The oldest known computer
NSC Patron
Aug 7, 2003
8,090
Not if they can't get a mortgage.

For FTB, if prices drop, their savings will represent a greater % deposit, ditto with the equity of those wanting to move, albeit their selling price will have reduced. For those with substantial savings who see a dramatic fall as grounds for investment, a mortgage won't be a problem. As you said, the BTL market will increase dramatically.
 


redneb

Active member
Oct 28, 2009
1,704
Burgess Hill
I've just got a 90% mortgage with Nationwide at 4.19% above the base rate ???

To even that out Chuck, my house mortgage is just coming out of fixed term and I've been stung by a whopping 0.75% above the BOE rate = 1.25% . It's a discrace.
 




The simple fact is that the financial world is in shit because the banks gave mortgages to members of the public who were simply not credit worthy. The ONLY way to repair this damage is to tighten lending criteria for at least a few years, if not permanently. Get used to it.
 




WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,776
I don't think anyone disputes your industry knowledge, I certainly don't. But I do think that you're too close to it all and being an emotional 'heart on your sleeve' sort of chap means you're simply unable to provide a neutral clear-headed commentary on this. You've proven this time and time again, unfortunately.

Simply if I was Mr LBG or Ms Barclays or Mrs HSBC and I saw a shaky, fragile property market and Mr Borrower wanted 90% LTV, I wouldn't be lending because I'd have a very real fear that the value of the asset would be less than the value of the debt in the very near future. And then everyone involved is in a bit of trouble. Multiply that scenario up to tens of thousands of similar cases and it all gets horrible again.

I'm afraid it's simply not as easy as saying "relax your lending criteria and it'll be happy days for all again".

I've never said this before but ....


This
 


Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patron
May 8, 2007
13,107
Toronto
To even that out Chuck, my house mortgage is just coming out of fixed term and I've been stung by a whopping 0.75% above the BOE rate = 1.25% . It's a discrace.

Well done Ben I'm really happy for you!

That just sums up the difference between a first time buyer now and one in the late 90s. You managed to easily afford a WHOLE 2 bedroom flat and I'm struggling to afford HALF a one bedroom flat and now you're reaping the rewards.

It's a joke.
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,952
Surrey
Well done Ben I'm really happy for you!

That just sums up the difference between a first time buyer now and one in the late 90s. You managed to easily afford a WHOLE 2 bedroom flat and I'm struggling to afford HALF a one bedroom flat and now you're reaping the rewards.

It's a joke.
But Ben bought that flat when house prices in Brighton seemed to lag well behind London. He paid £57k when mine in Wimbledon was worth about £140k. I bet the difference between those two flats is massively reduced now, because Brighton prices are much higher, relatively speaking.
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,763
Chandlers Ford
Well done Ben I'm really happy for you!

That just sums up the difference between a first time buyer now and one in the late 90s. You managed to easily afford a WHOLE 2 bedroom flat and I'm struggling to afford HALF a one bedroom flat and now you're reaping the rewards.

It's a joke.

Just forcibly move yourself in to Ben's spare room. That'll wipe the SMUG grin off his face.
 


Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patron
May 8, 2007
13,107
Toronto
Just forcibly move yourself in to Ben's spare room. That'll wipe the SMUG grin off his face.

Ben has 3 kids under the age of 2 I think the joke would be on me!

I did rent his flat for 2 years which was ok until it got to winter and I realised sash windows and old radiators didn't exactly provide much heat.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
The simple fact is that the financial world is in shit because the banks gave mortgages to members of the public who were simply not credit worthy. The ONLY way to repair this damage is to tighten lending criteria for at least a few years, if not permanently. Get used to it.

I am trying to adapt/survive the present mortgage marketplace as you are right. This is the norm now and if anything getting a mortgage in the future will become harder.
 




So lenders will in future require potential borrowers to prove their personal income. Pay slips, P60's, business accounts; I can't see what on earth is the big deal with this?

I agree it went too far and self cert was abused but it has gone too far the other way now. Your experiences are not the norm I can assure you. It is a real battle to get finance for 90% of the public. There has to be a way of assessing affordability in the future or the 4 000 000 self employed with never be able to move again or get a mortgage / property. There has to be a way of funding a healty mortagge marketplace and with respect you cannot eliminate ALL risk from lending which is what the FSA want. And if it was so clear to all why did the FSA do the square root of f*ck all about 125% mortgage, self certs etc for the 5 years they were being offered and arranged on their watch from 2004-2009 ?.

I still don't see why a potential borrower shouldn't expect to have to demonstrate their sources of personal income and indicate to the lender how they propose to pay off the loan within the proposed term?
It's got nothing whatsoever to do with my/our personal experiences but since you've raised these and it was you who facilitated the mortgage then our view was/is one of astonishment that someone lent us £400k+ last year without any idea how we intended to pay off the capital sum. Where was the risk assessment here?
This and the 125% LTV mortgages are (imo) examples of why the FSA is starting to clamp down - because the industry has been shown to be incapable of meaningful self-regulation in this area.
Re you point about self-employed people and mortgages; I'm not sure exactly where you're coming from but assuming it's about minimising "business" profit and tax then if there's a true business expense then it should be run through the business. If not then either declare it or, if you do decide to put it through the business accounts, then you shouldn't expect to treat it as personal income for other purposes (eg loan applications). The latter being like having your cake and eating it with an advisor from the HSBC branch in Basle?
 


redneb

Active member
Oct 28, 2009
1,704
Burgess Hill
Ben has 3 kids under the age of 2 I think the joke would be on me!

I did rent his flat for 2 years which was ok until it got to winter and I realised sash windows and old radiators didn't exactly provide much heat.

Tip of the day: if letting or selling a period property, always do it during the summer months. :thumbsup:
 






Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
Interest only mortgages are still allowed up to certain ltv limits. This can be repaid from numerous ways including investments, inheritances, paying off lump sums as and when or downsizing.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
House prices increased by 0.3% in August, shows the latest data from Land Registry.

This represents an annual price increase of 6.7% which takes the average property value in England and Wales to £167,423.

All regions in England and Wales experienced increases in their average property values over the last 12 months.

The region with the highest annual price change is London with an increase of 11.4%. The region with the smallest annual price rise is the North East with a movement of 1.6%.

The West Midlands experienced the greatest monthly rise with an increase of 1.2%. Yorkshire and The Humber experienced the most significant monthly price fall with a movement of -1.4%.

The most up-to-date figures available show that during June 2010, the number of completed house sales in England and Wales rose by nine per cent to 59,390 from 54,710 in June 2009.

The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1m increased by 81% between June 2009 and June 2010, from 331 to 599.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
I would also add there has to be a degree of the individual also being responsible for their own decisions. Like getting an interest only mortgage. The problem with the new landscape is that the FSA are going too far in absolving the individual from any personal responsibility in the decisions they make and if anything goes wrong it is the always the lender/broker solely to blame.
 


Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,711
Bishops Stortford
So which ones are they?

Redneb, Looks like you dont have an answer then, as you have let this get buried.

- parents are happy to give their kids money either as a kind of early inheritance or as a cash lump they were intending to use to pay for their wedding.
- where 15 years ago single people were able to buy places on their own, people are just going in together with a mate or partner.
- shared ownership schemes.
- Massive term mortgages making it cheaper in the short term
- people with kids want a place they can call theirs. There's nothing worse than trying to bring kids up in a house where the landlord could kick you out at a months notice.
 




Uncle C

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2004
11,711
Bishops Stortford
I would also add there has to be a degree of the individual also being responsible for their own decisions.

Since when has responsibility entered the equation when set against greed and/or ambition.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
43,097
Lancing
The process needs to be between the lender/individual and if involved broker. All parties should be fully informed and aware of any decisions and all should have at least some portion of their own responsibility in any transaction that takes place imo.
 


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