House prices to crash

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

I was looking at prices for one bedroom houses / flats. currently around 90k, if this actually does happen i may be able to afford to buy in 18months if the price drops to around 50k meaning i could rent it out

Perhaps you could start a brothel. All you'd have to do is pop round once a week and collect the rent................oh!

 

[drew]

Sorry, but I think it does. If the vendor reduced the price two things will happen

1. The people searching a mortgage might get one at the lower level.
2. New buyers will enter the arena.

So keep reducing it and it WILL sell long before it reaches 1 penny.

Lack of mortgages has an influence on what people can afford, not on setting realistic house prices. The free market does that.

But the free market is influenced by availablity of mortgages. It's not like spending a couple of hundred quid on your LCD tv. Most people can afford that so you shop around. Houses are different in that probably 99.999% of people are reliant on a mortgage. They are also reliant on finding the property they want to live in which is a lot different to buying a mass produced item off the shelf.

Has it never occurred to you in your infinite wisdom, that if house prices drop dramatically the same cycle of the "rich" will buy up all these properties, long before the average punter can arrange a mortgage. It has happened before you know.

The result...? More Landlords, property speculators etc etc etc

High prices at the moment are keeping property barons out of the market because the rent yields are insufficient to justify buying them.

As always....supply and demand will dictate prices. Always has...always will.

Supply and demand of both houses and mortgages.

Renting is not the end of the world. Regulations exist now to protect the tenants.

It has been proven time and time again that the only thing that really differentiates 'renting' and 'buying' is that the buyer has been convinced over the years that they will make a healthy profit as the house appreciates.

Remove this from the equation, or worse still reverse it with a house price crash, and renting suddenly becomes quite attractive.

Exactly when has there been a 30 year period when the price at the end is lower than the price at the start. Rents are too high in this country for reasons already stated. Why would you pay someone elses mortgage for them and have nothing to show for it at the end of the day. If rents were considerably lower and people who rented had security and, as a result of lower rents, had a much improved lifestyle then it would be attractive to many more people but thats not the case.

However, as a homeowner, I am pretty certain that my property, which in 10 years has probably increased in value by 75% will be worth considerably more when I die or retire. If I can afford to stay in the property I will do so and my daughter will inherit it in due couse. If I can't we will downsize, simple as.

 

[Uncle C]

But the free market is influenced by availablity of mortgages.
There is an element of truth in what you say but I still think that the free market is influenced by availablity of money, not mortgages alone which are just one way of delivering money.
If a vendor of a house at say £200,000 cant sell it, and starts reducing it say £10,000 a day he will eventually find a buyer. That buyer will find the money by whatever mechanism they have, it may not be the impoverished first time buyer who occupies the moral high ground, but it will sell.

Houses are different in that probably 99.999% of people are reliant on a mortgage.
(would love to know where that stat came from)

 

[Gwylan]

Houses are different in that probably 99.999% of people are reliant on a mortgage.
(would love to know where that stat came from)

As only about 70% of the population are owner-occupiers, it's clearly not true.

And there will be several people, like my mother, who have paid off their mortgages

 

[The Merry Prankster]

......... it may not be the impoverished first time buyer who occupies the moral high ground [/COLOR]

[/COLOR]
What high moral ground is this?

 

[drew]

But the free market is influenced by availablity of mortgages.
There is an element of truth in what you say but I still think that the free market is influenced by availablity of money, not mortgages alone which are just one way of delivering money.
If a vendor of a house at say £200,000 cant sell it, and starts reducing it say £10,000 a day he will eventually find a buyer. That buyer will find the money by whatever mechanism they have, it may not be the impoverished first time buyer who occupies the moral high ground, but it will sell.

Houses are different in that probably 99.999% of people are reliant on a mortgage.
(would love to know where that stat came from) Just to make it clear, the fact that I said 'probably' should indicate it is not a stat. When people use that phrase they are suggesting, near as damn it, everyone. I thought that was obvious!!!!!

As only about 70% of the population are owner-occupiers, it's clearly not true. Are you for real? Surely you understood what I was saying. Still, I will spell it out for you. I am suggesting that nearly everyone that buys a home does so with a mortgage. How many people do you know that were cash buyers?

And there will be several people, like my mother, who have paid off their mortgages

Q.E.D. i.e your mother had a mortgage!!!!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

There are 11 000 000 mortgages in the UK. Also 99.9% do not need a mortgage as around 30% of all sales are cashbuyers.

 

[drew]

There are 11 000 000 mortgages in the UK. Also 99.9% do not need a mortgage as around 30% of all sales are cashbuyers.

like I said, I never claimed it was a stat!!!!!!

 

[Monty]

like I said, I never claimed it was a stat!!!!!!

Stop dishing out the stats!

 

[Uncle C]

Houses are different in that probably 99.999% of people are reliant on a mortgage.
(would love to know where that stat came from) Just to make it clear, the fact that I said 'probably' should indicate it is not a stat. When people use that phrase they are suggesting, near as damn it, everyone. I thought that was obvious!!!!!

So 'near as damn it everyone' excludes.

• Children with wealthy parents.
• Entrepreneurs who have done well.
• Divorced couple who downsize with released capital from a big property to by two others
• People who inherit
• City bankers with big bonuses
• Foreign buyers
• Footballers with large signing on fees
• Emigrated people returning home
• Property speculators
• Builders
• Kept mistresses

 

[drew]

So 'near as damn it everyone' excludes.

• Children with wealthy parents.
• Entrepreneurs who have done well.
• Divorced couple who downsize with released capital from a big property to by two others
• People who inherit
• City bankers with big bonuses
• Foreign buyers
• Footballers with large signing on fees
• Emigrated people returning home
• Property speculators
• Builders
• Kept mistresses

Get a life!!!!

 

[redneb]

The second the economy starts to recover, prices start to rise again with the exception of the last month.

Make no mistake, prices will never get that low. The culture in this country is that people must own their own homes. In other countries people are happier to rent. People head towards their 30's and feel a pressure to buy so they can have a property that no one can remove them from as they consider having kids.

Clearly people want to own houses. Heck some people are willing to get 50 year mortgages which they then pass on to their kids (along with the asset) just to get a house. The fact that prices (apart from the recent figure) have been on the up over the past year even despite banks not lending money saysa lot about demand, especially in a quality sought after town like Brighton.

All this is just wishful thinking of course as I have a second property in the middle of Brighton that I plan to sell in the next year or 2.

 

[Uncle C]

Get a life!!!!

When in a hole, stop digging.

 

[Uncle C]

The second the economy starts to recover, prices start to rise again with the exception of the last month.

Make no mistake, prices will never get that low. (how low is that then) The culture in this country is that people must own their own homes. In other countries people are happier to rent. People head towards their 30's and feel a pressure to buy so they can have a property that no one can remove them from as they consider having kids.

Clearly people want to own houses. Heck some people are willing to get 50 year mortgages which they then pass on to their kids (along with the asset) just to get a house. The fact that prices (apart from the recent figure) have been on the up over the past year even despite banks not lending money saysa lot about demand, (says a lot about supply and demand) especially in a quality sought after town like Brighton.

All this is just wishful thinking of course as I have a second property in the middle of Brighton that I plan to sell in the next year or 2. oh dear

..........

 

[redneb]

..........

as low as the graph on page 1
yes supply and demand, the supply being there and also the demand that you wouldnt think would be there given the lack of lending.

 

[Uncle C]

as low as the graph on page 1 This point has been debated earlier in post 197 yes supply and demand, the supply being there and also the demand that you wouldnt think would be there given the lack of lending.

Why the insult?

 

[Uncle C]

Why the insult?

Anyway, despite that, here's a little selling tip for you.

This site is the opposite of Property Ladder. It is called Property Snake.

When Brighton properties start to show up on it, then the decline in prices has started.

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

 

[Gwylan]

Anyway, despite that, here's a little selling tip for you.

This site is the opposite of Property Ladder. It is called Property Snake.

When Brighton properties start to show up on it, then the decline in prices has started.

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

That's a great site. What on earth possessed those people to think a bungalow in Newark would sell for £700k?

There are some real chancers out there.

It's also sobering to realise that you can buy a house in some parts of the UK for under £30,000.

 

[drew]

When in a hole, stop digging.

Has your spade broken yet?

 

[jakarta]

That's a great site. What on earth possessed those people to think a bungalow in Newark would sell for £700k?

There are some real chancers out there.

It's also sobering to realise that you can buy a house in some parts of the UK for under £30,000.

Hmmm, had a look at where I live (RH20) and the 'Crash' looks like a 2-5% decline on average & when you look at the actual properties most are not very desirable in the first place.

I don't think anyone has answered my original point about why property prices would crash when over the next few years there will be a fast growing population, most of whom will want to live in a corner of a small island where comparatively little construction is taking place?

With an ageing Baby Boom generation who have most likely paid off their mortgages, I would have thought there would be a hell of lot of cash buyers in the market over the next few years - I know we will be a cash buyer the next property we go for.....