[Albion] Have we been lucky? (xG stat geekery)

[perseus]

MotD inexplicably had:

Albion: 1.26
Watford 1.47

That just doesn't make sense given the chances had by Goldson, Dunk and Hemed to name three.

I'd have thought even this doesn't reflect our superiority either:

[tweet]944698657290498048[/tweet]

My totals

Big 50% chances:

Goldson (saved)
Dunk (missed)
Hemed (missed)
Knockaert (missed)

Half (25%) chances
Knockaert (saved)
Gross (goal)
Hemed (blocked; fell to Knockaert)



Watford
50% Ryan fumble.
25% Richarlison (missed (saved)

Score 2.75 - 1 (I predicted 3-1)

I think our home matches against Everton and Burnley followed the same pattern and that was 4 pts dropped. We also underachieved against Man U (A), Watford (A), Bournemouth (A) and that added up to another 4 pts dropped and we are 8 pts worse off than we could be.

 

[perseus]

V Chelsea

Chelsea Big Chances 8 half chances 1
Albion Big Chances 2 half chances 1

Result Should have been 4-1

But the 1 came when Hazard and Kante went off.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

After the Watford missed sitter of an equaliser at the end, the luck-o-meter clicked back from unlucky 2 to unlucky 1.

 

[Notters]

Sure there was a more recent thread on this but can't find it. Watching the first RI Christmas lecture on catch up which has a detailed explanation as to how goal xg works. Worth a watch.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I've been getting more interested in the xG (eXpected Goals) stat that I've never really noticed until this season - maybe another feature of Premier League life.

Expected Goals is the number of goals a team (or teams) would expect to score in a match. This is determined by assigning a value to shots on goal, the number of shots, shot location, the in-game situation and the proximity of opposition defenders.

So, how are we doing on xG and xGA (eXpected Goals Against) after 7 games?

Well, on xG we are the worst performing side in the Premier League. I guess that simply means we are creating the least chances, or least decent chances.

View attachment 89975

On xGA we are approximately where we are in the actual league table thus far, and with a few teams closely grouped, it would be possible to move up quite quickly.

View attachment 89976

And how would this convert to the league itself? We'd be bottom of the pile, and have Palace laughing at us.

View attachment 89977

So, have we been lucky to earn the results and points that we have? My feeling is 'no'. So maybe xG is just a load of shit. Thoughts?

(Data sourced from >>> https://understat.com/league/EPL)

Nailed it, thread closed.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

xG predicted our fall off a cliff last season.

I have now been converted to being a fan.

It predicts a grim finish for Newcastle this year. Transfer window changes aside, let's see.

 

[Sheebo]

xG predicted our fall off a cliff last season.

I have now been converted to being a fan.

It predicts a grim finish for Newcastle this year. Transfer window changes aside, let's see.

So it’s not just for after a match, but the one they show on MOTD after the game is based on what happened on the game?

But they do pre match too? Or relate it to the whole season?

Sorry just trying to get head around it - where’s the table you’re looking at...?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So it’s not just for after a match, but the one they show on MOTD after the game is based on what happened on the game?

But they do pre match too? Or relate it to the whole season?

Sorry just trying to get head around it - where’s the table you’re looking at...?

A table I looked at a couple of weeks back - unfortunately I didn't bookmark it.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

It really highlights how important Murray was in our first two seasons. Without him being as clinical as he was we would’ve got relegated.

 

[Stat Brother]

 

[Insel affe]

We need more penalties, BTW.

If only we could encourage our players to run into the oppositions box occasionally, that might just help with that...

 

[Bold Seagull]

View attachment 120699

While most of us won't feel that as fans, because we're hopeless at ever seeing things too positive, that is to me how objectively I'm trying to see it given what other sides are doing, their fixtures and results in general.

I might have our red a bit closer to 60%, I think Leicester are capitulating without Vardy on fire, and Newcastle are going to get dragged into the relegation fight, but that is I think a really fair reflection of where the season is at.

 

[schmunk]

View attachment 120699

I'd take that.

 

[Weststander]

I'd expect us to score more goals if our midfield players had a few more shots.

Season 2019/20;

The PL stats show a significant number of Albion 'big chance missed' by Trossard and Mooy, and Maupay. Whereas some other clubs appear to be making their few big chances hit the back of the net.

 

[pb21]

A 20% chance of relegation, the 40% suggested on this thread seems more appropriate to me?!

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?378582-Relegation-Chances-2020&highlight=Relegation

 

[dazzer6666]

A 20% chance of relegation, the 40% suggested on this thread seems more appropriate to me?!

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?378582-Relegation-Chances-2020&highlight=Relegation

View attachment 120700

Based on Xg, but we underperform that due to not taking our chances ?

 

[sparkie]

If we can't get a win, all the XG in the world won't make any difference.