[Politics] have the right amount of kids you can afford, or should the govt stump up costs?

[Thunder Bolt]

In 20years time it won't be! Automation is killing jobs as well you should know. And let's not forget wage deflation masks unemployment levels. Record unemployment doesn't = record tax generation.

Look, it's simple. Many other cultures have higher birth rates for lots of reasons primarily the lower emancipation of women. These cultural differences don't disappear at Dover. Nor does lower mean 1.6 or whatever the average is so if a family of 5, lower than perhaps 7 or 8 kids that's perhaps the norm in the developing country, how does the social cost of bringing kids up get paid in the 20 year (hell of a) short-term before they become economic contributors (if they ever do)? And multiply this by a few million people in that 20year short term because of unprecedented immigration levels and...how's this all add up in the here and now? Not forgetting that the social bill at the end of life is sky rocketing and that'll be forced even higher by a population rapidly advancing towards 80 million. It doesn't and people wonder why we don't have enough in the kitty now never mind the future. It's madness to pretend we ever would. I think the cost of 'humans' (this isn't really about kids, they're just little humans!) is way more than any of us currently contribute economically versus expectations of what we should get back: state education, housing, health, public services, clean environment, food, security...the list just grows but the resource pool shrinks. Quite simply, more is going out than is being put in. Population growth ain't helping any of that.

Automation doesn't kill jobs as jobs get created. Just a silly example, only GPO trained people sold and serviced phones 40 years ago. Now we have mobile phones, laptops, Ipads etc and many more jobs created in the communications industry. Phone shops, IT experts repairing and refurbishing them, aerial fitters, programme writers etc etc.

 

[portlock seagull]

Well said! I wholeheartedly concur.

And another here.

 

[portlock seagull]

Automation doesn't kill jobs as jobs get created. Just a silly example, only GPO trained people sold and serviced phones 40 years ago. Now we have mobile phones, laptops, Ipads etc and many more jobs created in the communications industry. Phone shops, IT experts repairing and refurbishing them, aerial fitters, programme writers etc etc.

It's no where near the same in parallel though. Are you really saying all the world experts on this matter are wrong? Are you denying climate change too?!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

It's no where near the same in parallel though. Are you really saying all the world experts on this matter are wrong? Are you denying climate change too?!

Which world experts? I tend to post links when I make a point, but you don't post anything to back up your opinion.

Edit to add links which back up the technology creating jobs, not destroying them.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matty-mariansky/technology-is-creating-jo_b_14266770.html

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ore-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census

 

[narly101]

Because, as I stated before, those parents might be nurses, care workers, emergency services, teachers, medical assistants, public sector, etc. etc. stuff we all need and use! Even if they aren't those things, what sort of economy is it if it doesn't pay for a parent to work because childcare is a higher cost than wages?

Why shouldn't the government subsidise this? That parent instead of working will earn nothing, and therefore pay no taxes and potentially we lose a skilled person from the economy. If you said, hang on, if we effectively match their tax contributions by subsidising childcare, we're enabling someone to work, who would otherwise be paying us no tax anyway. The nursery / childcare operation will then pay tax from that kid being in there, and their staff. There is surely economic sense to doing that?

As an aside, you had a 1 in 64 chance of a multiple birth when you had your only child. With your hardline stance, its a good job you were not a statistical chance of twins or triplets!

Taking the economical stance away from it. I think your looking at this in the wrong way. If a couple have a child and they cannot between them afford childcare when the mothers maternity leave ends, why should anyone subsidise that couple so they can afford for the mum (or dad) to return to work? You wouldn’t buy a dog and then ask the government to pay the vet bills would you if you couldn’t afford them?


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[narly101]

It’s the childcare costs here that are the issue from the original article. If you can’t afford the childcare costs then how about waiting around five years before the 2nd child so that childcare costs become more easily affordable? Again it’s about compromise, rather than “the government should subsidise it”. Far too bloody easy to blame it on the government.


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[spongy]

Automation doesn't kill jobs as jobs get created. Just a silly example, only GPO trained people sold and serviced phones 40 years ago. Now we have mobile phones, laptops, Ipads etc and many more jobs created in the communications industry. Phone shops, IT experts repairing and refurbishing them, aerial fitters, programme writers etc etc.

Automation is killing jobs. The jobs created is far fewer than those lost. I know. I'm right in the middle of it.

I work at a small engineering firm. I am a skilled worker with 15 years experience in my field. With qualifications and currently working on more. My job USED to be difficult and a challenge every day demanding 100% concentration. One mistake and it could cost the company a small fortune.

We lease machines on 5 year agreements so we can keep up with the changes and developments in technology and remain competitive.

What used to take hours of programming and setting is now done offline by only a couple of people. They do my job for me. The machinery is so advanced now all I have to do is push the green button and monitor it. There is no skill involved to a certain degree.

Why should my company pay me a decent wage for my knowledge and experience when all they need is a monkey to press the button.

I've just turned 39 years old. Just before the crash in 2008 I was working as button pusher earning under 7 quid an hour. I was also single and living at home.

10 years ago I met the now Mrs Spongy. Now have a 3 year old little girl who is fantastic. Got married last year.

I work 12 hours a day. Including 3.5 hours overtime at time and a half. Every day and most Saturday mornings when we haven't got a home game. Last year I earned (including overtime) 31k.

Look at house prices now. They're mental. Factor in our rent is >1k. All as so hated bills. I live down to my last tenner every month. If I have a day off it costs me a lot as I NEED that overtime to keep my head above water. Hence I still have 15 days holiday to take this year before Xmas but I cant afford to drop the money.

I don't earn enough to live yet alone save for a house or mortgage. And at my age now the chances are I never will. And that hurts me so much I want to cry myself to sleep most days knowing I can never provide for my family like my parents did for me.

Technology is killing industry. Unless you're fresh out of uni with a degree in new technology you're fooked. Eve if you are lucky to find a company that will take you on then those jobs don't exist down south. You have to uproot your whole family to go live in a shithole like Stoke. Even then in my industry top wages up there are 12 quid an hour.

If I lose my job at my age I lose everything I know. And I can't support my family working in ****ing Asda stacking shelves on a night shift.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's no where near the same in parallel though. Are you really saying all the world experts on this matter are wrong?

yes, the bedwetter experts are wrong. its nothing new, a couple of generations ago there were no tractors and nearly all farming was done by hand, with a few horse and oxen. harvesting required dozens of people, the reason for the long summer holiday so kids could help. mechanisation allowed single famer and couple of labourers to manage over hundred acres. what happened to all those unemployed farmer workers? they found new jobs, new industry and business soaked up the labour. and same will do so if further automation makes current jobs redundant.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I don’t doubt that you’ve worked for it, not at all, but I think it has to be acknowledged that, generally speaking, millennials have it very difficult financially. I see a lot of frustration, and maybe that’s comes across as entitlement, all I know is that I’m only lucky that I can afford a house at the age of 28 because I moved out of Sussex. Sure, I’ve worked hard for it but no more so than my friends back in B Hill who can’t even afford a deposit on a one bed, up/ one down.

I think as others (too few) have said, everthing is the same now as it ever was. My dad bought his first house in 1953. He had to grovel for a mortgage and he lived from month to month till he retired in 1985. I was 31 when I bought my first house, and I still live in it. My son is 31 now. He has no chance of buying anything. But he decided to leave school in the lower 6th and become a musician, working in low paid jobs to pay for beer, living at home with me till he was 29..... he is now renting and working two jobs to subsidise his music etc. He's doing it his way.

I'm supposedly a lefty but we live in a capitalist world and have a chance to vote, so I would suggest we not only get what we deserve, we get what the majority (imagine they) want. It beats dictatorship. And it facilitates a bit of natural selection. Oh, and house prices are tumbling in London at the moment. Market forces.....

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Automation is killing jobs. The jobs created is far fewer than those lost. I know. I'm right in the middle of it.

I work at a small engineering firm. I am a skilled worker with 15 years experience in my field. With qualifications and currently working on more. My job USED to be difficult and a challenge every day demanding 100% concentration. One mistake and it could cost the company a small fortune.

We lease machines on 5 year agreements so we can keep up with the changes and developments in technology and remain competitive.

What used to take hours of programming and setting is now done offline by only a couple of people. They do my job for me. The machinery is so advanced now all I have to do is push the green button and monitor it. There is no skill involved to a certain degree.

Why should my company pay me a decent wage for my knowledge and experience when all they need is a monkey to press the button.

I've just turned 39 years old. Just before the crash in 2008 I was working as button pusher earning under 7 quid an hour. I was also single and living at home.

10 years ago I met the now Mrs Spongy. Now have a 3 year old little girl who is fantastic. Got married last year.

I work 12 hours a day. Including 3.5 hours overtime at time and a half. Every day and most Saturday mornings when we haven't got a home game. Last year I earned (including overtime) 31k.

Look at house prices now. They're mental. Factor in our rent is >1k. All as so hated bills. I live down to my last tenner every month. If I have a day off it costs me a lot as I NEED that overtime to keep my head above water. Hence I still have 15 days holiday to take this year before Xmas but I cant afford to drop the money.

I don't earn enough to live yet alone save for a house or mortgage. And at my age now the chances are I never will. And that hurts me so much I want to cry myself to sleep most days knowing I can never provide for my family like my parents did for me.

Technology is killing industry. Unless you're fresh out of uni with a degree in new technology you're fooked. Eve if you are lucky to find a company that will take you on then those jobs don't exist down south. You have to uproot your whole family to go live in a shithole like Stoke. Even then in my industry top wages up there are 12 quid an hour.

If I lose my job at my age I lose everything I know. And I can't support my family working in ****ing Asda stacking shelves on a night shift.

I'm really sorry to hear that. But the solution, as the Luddites found, is not to smash the new machines. Also, without wishing to be nosey, you sound like you upskilled quite late (after 2008?). Were you not busy and proactive in your late teens and early 20s, preparing yourself for the future? Everyone has a story, and every story is different.

 

[spongy]

I'm really sorry to hear that. But the solution, as the Luddites found, is not to smash the new machines. Also, without wishing to be nosey, you sound like you upskilled quite late (after 2008?). Were you not busy and proactive in your late teens and early 20s, preparing yourself for the future? Everyone has a story, and every story is different.

In my late teens early 20s I don't know what I really wanted. I was bullied severely at school. I was always told I was intelligent but I hated it and didn't give a toss in the end. Predicted a's at GCSE and walked away with 3c's as I bunked off the most important part during exams. I couldn't handle being a stranger in a new school with no friends at that time. Especially with self belief and confidence at my lowest.

Went to college and did a gnvq business. Then did a level 2 and 3 btec in business admin. Got a proper job aged 20 in year 2000 earning 11k a year.

Then realised I hated working in offices.

Then spent 5 years ruining my life in many ways. Then got a temp job as cover for machining work and spent a few years moving companys chasing a 10p per hour pay rise.

Got my current job in 2010. Held it down for 2 years and asked to do a course at college. Work said yes.

Started at level 2 btec manufacturing engineering course. Passed with distinction.

Did a level 3 btec and nvq in the same. Passed with distinction. I can now call myself an engineer.

Just started year 2 of an HNC manufacturing engineering. Passed year 1 with distinction.

I'm going to be 40 next year and will only have a qualification that a 20 year old can have if they start at the right time.

It's ok saying that new jobs are created but if I lose mine then I lose the wages as there isn't the demand for the experience i have as you don't need it any more. The few that survive can command them but those let go have to start again at the bottom of the wage structure. No good for people like me.

My job has changed a lot in just these last 7 years. We only really need one setter for the machines. With 3 operatirs. At the moment we have 3 setters. Two of us are surplus. The next generation of machine in 3 years for us could well spell disaster.

I just hope becomi g more qualified saves me.

Doesn't help me buy a house for 330k at the age of 39 with zero savings does it though?

 

[Bold Seagull]

Taking the economical stance away from it. I think your looking at this in the wrong way. If a couple have a child and they cannot between them afford childcare when the mothers maternity leave ends, why should anyone subsidise that couple so they can afford for the mum (or dad) to return to work? You wouldn’t buy a dog and then ask the government to pay the vet bills would you if you couldn’t afford them?

We subsidise lots of people in the economy and many industry sectors, those looking for work, on training schemes, additional education. As a state of course you subsidise things to benefit the economy. How can you take the economic stance out of it? It is purely and simply an economic decision both for the family and government.

You're still wrong because even your sad dog analogy isn't about not affording the vet, no one is saying they cannot afford the vet, the affordability is whether it is viable for them to work to contribute more to their household. Currently it isn't in some situations, which seems daft because if childcare was available, you'd have them contributing to the economy.

The government pays £6bn in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry including Shell and BP in tax breaks for things like North Sea oil production. Renewable energy providers don't even get half this. And you're getting your knickers in a twist over parents wanting to work and having some (not all) childcare provided. Amazing really, I'm at a loss as to what people choose to get angry about.

 

[Bold Seagull]

It’s the childcare costs here that are the issue from the original article. If you can’t afford the childcare costs then how about waiting around five years before the 2nd child so that childcare costs become more easily affordable? Again it’s about compromise, rather than “the government should subsidise it”. Far too bloody easy to blame it on the government.

One of the women had twins you've dodged that each time I've mentioned it.

What are you going to do, blame the mother for knocking 2 out at once!

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

I think as others (too few) have said, everthing is the same now as it ever was. My dad bought his first house in 1953. He had to grovel for a mortgage and he lived from month to month till he retired in 1985. I was 31 when I bought my first house, and I still live in it. My son is 31 now. He has no chance of buying anything. But he decided to leave school in the lower 6th and become a musician, working in low paid jobs to pay for beer, living at home with me till he was 29..... he is now renting and working two jobs to subsidise his music etc. He's doing it his way.

I'm supposedly a lefty but we live in a capitalist world and have a chance to vote, so I would suggest we not only get what we deserve, we get what the majority (imagine they) want. It beats dictatorship. And it facilitates a bit of natural selection. Oh, and house prices are tumbling in London at the moment. Market forces.....

It may have always been difficult, I don’t doubt that, but as I’ve pointed out, the annual income to house price ratio has risen exponentially as has the cost of deposits. People’s individual experiences may vary (my father in law bought his first house with the £100 deposit he got for selling his car back in 1982) but generally speaking it is harder for first time buyers to buy a house now than it was 20+ years ago. And the notion it’s because the millennial generation are entitled and lazy is way off the mark.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

In my late teens early 20s I don't know what I really wanted. I was bullied severely at school. I was always told I was intelligent but I hated it and didn't give a toss in the end. Predicted a's at GCSE and walked away with 3c's as I bunked off the most important part during exams. I couldn't handle being a stranger in a new school with no friends at that time. Especially with self belief and confidence at my lowest.

Went to college and did a gnvq business. Then did a level 2 and 3 btec in business admin. Got a proper job aged 20 in year 2000 earning 11k a year.

Then realised I hated working in offices.

Then spent 5 years ruining my life in many ways. Then got a temp job as cover for machining work and spent a few years moving companys chasing a 10p per hour pay rise.

Got my current job in 2010. Held it down for 2 years and asked to do a course at college. Work said yes.

Started at level 2 btec manufacturing engineering course. Passed with distinction.

Did a level 3 btec and nvq in the same. Passed with distinction. I can now call myself an engineer.

Just started year 2 of an HNC manufacturing engineering. Passed year 1 with distinction.

I'm going to be 40 next year and will only have a qualification that a 20 year old can have if they start at the right time.

It's ok saying that new jobs are created but if I lose mine then I lose the wages as there isn't the demand for the experience i have as you don't need it any more. The few that survive can command them but those let go have to start again at the bottom of the wage structure. No good for people like me.

My job has changed a lot in just these last 7 years. We only really need one setter for the machines. With 3 operatirs. At the moment we have 3 setters. Two of us are surplus. The next generation of machine in 3 years for us could well spell disaster.

I just hope becomi g more qualified saves me.

Doesn't help me buy a house for 330k at the age of 39 with zero savings does it though?

Quite a journey. You have climbed the hill once so you can do it again. I'm nearly 60 and have been the architect of several of my own disasters, but all you can do is try to bounce back. And the only ******* who can do it for us is ourself. And if we put our mind to it....think laterally....All the best.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

And the notion it’s because the millennial generation are entitled and lazy is way off the mark.

Yes maybe I'm a bit unfair if that was the impression I gave. In my son's case, he's far from lazy or entitled . . . but compared to me at his age he seems less ... concerned about the difficulty of it all.... when I was his age I couldn't see how I'd lead a comfortable life and that bothered me.... he doesn't seem that concerned.... anyway, times change....

 

[spongy]

Cheers. Only a year to go then I can remember what it was like to just finish work and go home and sit down instead of sitting under a pile of books until midnight.

This thread has somewhat derailed. I need the childcare help at the end of the day. I'm trying my damnedness to contribute. So is my wife. Every day is a struggle. And some of the posters on here have either never experienced how hard it is trying to raise kids and live a life and buy a house or they've done it and forgotten just how hard it was then yet alone now. Winds me right up. Some of us are here needing the help and trying our best but its still not quite enough.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

However...they don’t because there will be more unemployment, lower wages and people live longer lives requiring a bigger social bill at ‘the other end’. Not to mention the population explosion in the (20yr) short term is a hell of a long time to be finding the cash to pay for all this.

But this is a losers mentality; Britain really needs to snap out of this. Grow the economy accordingly and the country will be minted. During the Brexit period I have heard nothing but how brilliant Britain is, and brilliant Britain can and will be. So there’s nothing to worry about. If Germany can grow an economy which needs more people then Britain can certainly do the same.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

Yes maybe I'm a bit unfair if that was the impression I gave. In my son's case, he's far from lazy or entitled . . . but compared to me at his age he seems less ... concerned about the difficulty of it all.... when I was his age I couldn't see how I'd lead a comfortable life and that bothered me.... he doesn't seem that concerned.... anyway, times change....

My apologies, I didn’t mean to insinuate that you held this attitude. I initially raised the housing issue in response to the view that millennials feel self-entitled or are too lazy to put in the work it requires to afford things like houses, instead preferring to spend their money on smart phones and partying. I must admit, I know people a bit younger that myself who are inclined to do that but most of my friends in their late 20s are absolutely desperate to own their own home. And although owning a home isn’t a right, the fact they can’t scrape together the deposit due to rent being too expensive to save any money or simply because that houses are now, on average, 8 times more expensive than an annual salary, causes a lot of frustration which, I suppose, could be misconstrued by others as a sense of entitlement.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Automation is killing jobs. The jobs created is far fewer than those lost. I know. I'm right in the middle of it.

I work at a small engineering firm. I am a skilled worker with 15 years experience in my field. With qualifications and currently working on more. My job USED to be difficult and a challenge every day demanding 100% concentration. One mistake and it could cost the company a small fortune.

We lease machines on 5 year agreements so we can keep up with the changes and developments in technology and remain competitive.

What used to take hours of programming and setting is now done offline by only a couple of people. They do my job for me. The machinery is so advanced now all I have to do is push the green button and monitor it. There is no skill involved to a certain degree.

Why should my company pay me a decent wage for my knowledge and experience when all they need is a monkey to press the button.

I've just turned 39 years old. Just before the crash in 2008 I was working as button pusher earning under 7 quid an hour. I was also single and living at home.

10 years ago I met the now Mrs Spongy. Now have a 3 year old little girl who is fantastic. Got married last year.

I work 12 hours a day. Including 3.5 hours overtime at time and a half. Every day and most Saturday mornings when we haven't got a home game. Last year I earned (including overtime) 31k.

Look at house prices now. They're mental. Factor in our rent is >1k. All as so hated bills. I live down to my last tenner every month. If I have a day off it costs me a lot as I NEED that overtime to keep my head above water. Hence I still have 15 days holiday to take this year before Xmas but I cant afford to drop the money.

I don't earn enough to live yet alone save for a house or mortgage. And at my age now the chances are I never will. And that hurts me so much I want to cry myself to sleep most days knowing I can never provide for my family like my parents did for me.

Technology is killing industry. Unless you're fresh out of uni with a degree in new technology you're fooked. Eve if you are lucky to find a company that will take you on then those jobs don't exist down south. You have to uproot your whole family to go live in a shithole like Stoke. Even then in my industry top wages up there are 12 quid an hour.

If I lose my job at my age I lose everything I know. And I can't support my family working in ****ing Asda stacking shelves on a night shift.

My husband started off as a draughtsman, which was completely replaced by autocad. He then worked on the shop floor as a press setter, but studied & got an HNC, then an HND in electronic engineering paid for by the firm. It is difficult but opportunities to change do pop up.