[Misc] Has anyone tried the Martingale betting method

[knocky1]

So I lay black and back red or lay red and back black. Use free bets but double the stake every time I lose. I think I'm onto a winner here. Martingale here I come.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

I'd suggest starting with Smarkets for a few reasons:

- 2% commission, although you can opt for a lower commission with Betfair now I think.
- Betfair Sportsbook (ie the regular fixed odds bookie side) has some reasonable offers. However you would not get away with backing on the Betfair Sportsbook and then laying on the Betfair Exchange for very long.
- Betfair and Paddy Power are the same company. Again, you'll not last long if you back on Paddy and lay on the Betfair exchange.

Smarkets tend to have decent liquidity on most things, particularly football, although it can be a bit thin on lower-profile stuff.


[MENTION=9822]KZNSeagull[/MENTION] has covered it off. They won't know you're laying but your betting patterns will give away that you're a Matched Bettor, ie...

- Opening an account with a sum that exactly matches that required to trigger the new customer offer.
- Betting on something low-ish odds which is a close match to exchange prices (most bookies will track the exchange price every time you strike a bet to see how much value you are taking)
- Using free bets on 4/1+ odds, as this is the way to get best value extraction from your free bets.
- Betting on offers that trigger or may trigger free bet offers most/all of the time.

Bookie systems are all automated, but your activity may trigger manual review. I reckon I'd have a very high success rate of correctly identifying a matched better by reviewing their betting activity.

Try to disguise your matched betting activity as much as you can!



I'm not sure I agree in all cases. My WH an 365 accounts, used for matched betting, both were very highly in profit (which meant I'd lost at exchanges) and persisted for a long, long time.I think it's often more about value taken and bonus abuse.

To stay under the radar would you need to be spreading action to non-offer related bets as well? If so, how do you do this without risking your budget?

 

[Hippy1]

The martingale method sounds like a quick way to the work house .

 

[Bold Seagull]

So despite 1 error in laying the wrong type of HT/FT against the back I'd made (bit confusing), I do appear to be at least £10 in profit, probably £20 had I not made the error (I lost £10, and a £10 free bet - so lost out the chance for profit too).

Sort of getting it now. Slowly but surely. The biggest thing I realise is having the bank in the exchange for the liability. Focussing on Smarkets as just happens to be my biggest bank now.

 

[Bozza]

So despite 1 error in laying the wrong type of HT/FT against the back I'd made (bit confusing), I do appear to be at least £10 in profit, probably £20 had I not made the error (I lost £10, and a £10 free bet - so lost out the chance for profit too).

Sort of getting it now. Slowly but surely. The biggest thing I realise is having the bank in the exchange for the liability. Focussing on Smarkets as just happens to be my biggest bank now.

Yeah, you’ll find yourself wanting your bets to “lose” so your exchange funds get swelled.

What you can do is go after a lot of NCOs this weekend and focus on one Premier League match and Dutch it, ie cover all three outcomes with different bookies with your stakes adjusted to make for an even-ish financial result, mitigating the need to lay and have exchange funds.

Or, if you’re not comfortable with that, do the same but back and lay in the conventional way. Liability on different outcomes nets off against each other as clearly a team can’t win, lose and draw the same match so you’d not need as much liability as you would tackling each NCO one by one.

 

[pearl]

whenever I spot this thread title I think it's going to be about Catholic contraception

(I'll get me coat)

 

[Bold Seagull]

What you can do is go after a lot of NCOs this weekend

I'm that green, NCO?

 

[Bozza]

I'm that green, NCO?

Sorry - New Customer Offers.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

Yeah, you’ll find yourself wanting your bets to “lose” so your exchange funds get swelled.

What you can do is go after a lot of NCOs this weekend and focus on one Premier League match and Dutch it, ie cover all three outcomes with different bookies with your stakes adjusted to make for an even-ish financial result, mitigating the need to lay and have exchange funds.

Or, if you’re not comfortable with that, do the same but back and lay in the conventional way. Liability on different outcomes nets off against each other as clearly a team can’t win, lose and draw the same match so you’d not need as much liability as you would tackling each NCO one by one.

Thanks Bozza.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Sorry - New Customer Offers.

Mistakes I have made so far:
1. thought I was staking £5 plus a £5 free bet when in fact I was only staking £5 free bet
2. didn't press 'use free bet' when staking £5
3. Got the wrong HT/FT type bet on the exchange that didn't cover my backed bet.
4. placed a back bet and then realised the bet wasn't fully matched on the exchange.

Still £30 up though!