has any team ever f*cked up from our position

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

*sigh*


I make it that the absolute bare minimum number of points that we will get from that lot will be 12 which will give us 83 points. As I say, that assumes an absolutely disastrous run-in (with one or two fluke wins), and even then 83 points will possibly see us promoted.

More likely is that we'll crack on and compile 24 or 25 points and win the league by a landslide. We're up.

To reinforce your point, another 12 points would actually take us to 86.

I know supporting a lower league team conditions most fans to expect the worst but surely people can look at this slightly objectively? Yes, we could f*** it up, but to do that would require us to pretty much not win another game this season. Come on, take something positive from that, please! In eight days time we could be in a position where, with eight games left, we won't actually need to win another game. We're that close.

 

[Mackenzie]

I'm not celebrating anything until we're mathmatically promoted. I've been a Brighton fan too long for anything else. Sorry.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

*sigh*

Fixtures remaining:

Brighton v Notts County, 19:45
Brighton v Swindon, 13:00
Dag & Red v Brighton, 19:45
Rochdale v Brighton, 15:00
Brighton v Sheff Wed, 15:00
Brighton v Dag & Red, 19:45
Walsall v Brighton, 15:00
Brighton v Southampton, 15:00
Colchester v Brighton, 12:15
Brighton v Huddersfield, 15:00
Notts County v Brighton, 15:00

I make it that the absolute bare minimum number of points that we will get from that lot will be 12 which will give us 83 points. As I say, that assumes an absolutely disastrous run-in (with one or two fluke wins), and even then 83 points will possibly see us promoted.

More likely is that we'll crack on and compile 24 or 25 points and win the league by a landslide. We're up.

The question was, "could we f*ck up from here" and of course we could. I tend to agree that we'll romp it eventually, hopefully settled before we play any on the big boys towards the end, but it's not over yet.

 

[Icy Gull]

I'm not celebrating anything until we're mathmatically promoted. I've been a Brighton fan too long for anything else. Sorry.

I'm with you

 

[Rich Suvner]

totally agree about being a Brighton fan too long to celebrate before it's a done deal. but it's looking excellent.

btw if Plymouth were liquidated

Bournemouth -6pts
Huddersfield -3pts
Southampton -0pts, 1 game (basically -3pts)
Peterborough -3pts, 1 game (basically - 6pts)

so not a disaster in that sense.

 

[Rich Suvner]

Team - Pts to play for (Max Points)
Brighton - 33 (107)
Huddersfield - 24 (91)
Peterborough - 30 (95)
Southampton - 33 (97)
Bournemouth - 27 (88)
MK Dons - 27 (88)
Leyton Orient - 33 (89)

We need 22 points to guaranee promotion - on the (impossible) scenario that all chasing pack win every remaining game

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

I'm not celebrating anything until we're mathmatically promoted. I've been a Brighton fan too long for anything else. Sorry.

I'm with you

Have we ever been in a similar position and f***ed up? What has happened so far this season to suggest that the management and players are about to embark on a monumental loss of form that will result in us not getting promoted?

 

[Rich Suvner]

Assuming 88 pts gets you promoted this season:

Team / pts per game so far / pts per game required / Requirement as percentage of season form

Brighton - 2.1 / 1.3 / 60%
Huddersfield - 1.8 / 2.6 / 149%
Peterborough - 1.8 / 2.3 / 127%
Southampton - 1.8 / 2.2 / 119%
Bournemouth - 1.6 / 3.0 / 182%
MK Dons - 1.6 / 3.0 / 182%
Leyton Orient - 1.6 / 2.9 / 182%

 

[Storer68]

The start of the 2002-03 season.

We won our first game in what is now the Championship (having gone up as Champions the previous season ) at Burnley so were top

and proceded not win another match until we played 16

Both Brighton and Sheffield Wednesday suffered awful starts to the season (Brighton managing only a single win from their first sixteen matches), and despite good runs of form late in the season, neither were able to survive.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

totally agree about being a Brighton fan too long to celebrate before it's a done deal. but it's looking excellent.

btw if Plymouth were liquidated

Bournemouth -6pts
Huddersfield -3pts
Southampton -0pts, 1 game (basically -3pts)
Peterborough -3pts, 1 game (basically - 6pts)

so not a disaster in that sense.

Trying not to put a negative on things but a worst case senario would be Plymouth going bust meaning we have 68pts, Huddersfield 64pts, Southampton 64 pts and Peterborough 62pts.

If we then lost against Huddersfield and Southampton at home, they would then close the gap right up or even overtake us (depending on other results) so no its far from over just yet.

All you can say is things are looking extrememly good for promotion or possibly even winning the title and i hope we can do it but its still too early to become complacent and think its all over / foregone conclusion.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Assuming 88 pts gets you promoted this season:

Team / pts per game so far / pts per game required / Requirement as percentage of season form

Brighton - 2.1 / 1.3 / 60%
Huddersfield - 1.8 / 2.6 / 149%
Peterborough - 1.8 / 2.3 / 127%
Southampton - 1.8 / 2.2 / 119%
Bournemouth - 1.6 / 3.0 / 182%
MK Dons - 1.6 / 3.0 / 182%
Leyton Orient - 1.6 / 2.9 / 182%

percentages mean nothing, look at last season, the first part of Poyets reign vs the 2nd half and the sudden improvement in form (and / or we slump), any of the teams below us could suddenly go on a very good run meaning %'s given here are worthless as a prediction tool for final points tallies.

You will have teams near the bottom of the table battling for their lives, teams in mid table with nothing to play for and so on that could affect results and make them less predictable and a so called easy run in could be harder than imagined by fans.

- More a case of cautious optimism from me, not negativity

 

[Rich Suvner]

percentages mean nothing

maybe not, but looking at the points per game requirements of teams to get to 88pts, i think there's a pretty interesting story here. we need almost a point less per game than everyone else. win tomorrow, and we can virtually draw every game to get to 88.

 

[Icy Gull]

Have we ever been in a similar position and f***ed up? What has happened so far this season to suggest that the management and players are about to embark on a monumental loss of form that will result in us not getting promoted?

Nothing, nothing at all but if any club could f*** it up historically (admittedly probably not with the current set up) we could..I can remember, not so long ago, being unsure we'd get all the points when we were 2-0 up with 10 mins to go

I still pinch myself every weekend when we win 1-0 as I spend at least 25 mins thinking that we won't hang on, old habits built up over decades die hard