[Football] Gut feeling - Albion saying up or going down?

[Giraffe]

Going down. Out best hope of staying up was using the home advantage against the big teams. Without that, the technically better teams will walk all over us I fear meaning we have to win the others which won’t be easy.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I think we have a few things in our favour:

1. The weather - we are not a pacy, counter-attacking side and our results tend to be better during the drier months.

2. Alexis MacAllister - he'll be used to playing in the heat, the opposition won't know much about him, he could be our X Factor.

3. Lamptey - useful squad player, could even break through in these final 9 games. An exciting prospect.

Looking at the fixtures for all teams below us; it will be a miracle if Villa or Norwich overtake us, the later will so well to get above 30 points.

We then need to keep one of Watford, West Ham or B’Muff below us. I expect one of those teams will implode and my money will be on Smug Eddie’s outfit.

 

[Bozza]

Looking at the fixtures for all teams below us; it will be a miracle if Villa or Norwich overtake us, the later will so well to get above 30 points.

We then need to keep one of Watford, West Ham or B’Muff below us. I expect one of those teams will implode and my money will be on Smug Eddie’s outfit.

Sounds like Bournemouth will have the bonus of David Brooks returning and possibly Steve Cook too. Both would have missed the end of the season, as originally scheduled.

It doesn't seem to be clear whether Ryan Fraser will feature or not though.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Fence for me as we have got some run in to end of season and points will be hard to come by.

I think too much is being made of our run in -
All fans have a tendency to focus on their own games and not to look at the others run ins.

I have put together a comparison of the bottom 6's last game, matching up like for like fixtures as much as possible.
Remember 3 of them have to out perform us by a minimum of 3 points for us to be relegated





It's very much in our hands, IMO

 

[AmexRuislip]

Staying up!

 

[southstandandy]

Not desperately optimistic, but we can't be any worse than the form we displayed since the turn of the year with no wins in 9 (or 10 if you include the FA Cup defeat). Can we?

Surely our luck has got to turn at some point?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think too much is being made of our run in -
All fans have a tendency to focus on their own games and not to look at the others run ins.

I have put together a comparison of the bottom 6's last game, matching up like for like fixtures as much as possible.
Remember 3 of them have to out perform us by a minimum of 3 points for us to be relegated

View attachment 124284



It's very much in our hands, IMO

That is a great chart.

It shows that our 2 extra points and better goal difference is absolute gold dust to us.

 

[Icy Gull]

That is a great chart.

It shows that our 2 extra points and better goal difference is absolute gold dust to us.

Potentially gone in one game though....

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Potentially gone in one game though....

But potentially anything can happen. We could even potentially finish with 56 points.

 

[Weststander]

I think too much is being made of our run in -
All fans have a tendency to focus on their own games and not to look at the others run ins.

I have put together a comparison of the bottom 6's last game, matching up like for like fixtures as much as possible.
Remember 3 of them have to out perform us by a minimum of 3 points for us to be relegated

View attachment 124284



It's very much in our hands, IMO

We ‘should’ lose those first three, but could stay up with later wins.

Although the timeless run of never winning must play on the minds of players.

 

[Arkwright]

Before the break I was quite optimistic, thought we showed great character away at Sheff Utd and Wolves and looked a hard team to beat.
Without staying the obvious we need a few goals from somewhere.
be interesting to see who plays, Biss had a good game at Wolves, do we play Propper with Stephens or Biss?
A big question is Gross or McAllister, like Gross but defensively poor not sure what McAllister's work rate is like.
Been our problem all season Potter has never had a settled side.
I think we can sneak it and stay up .

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Potentially gone in one game though....

It's a mini season.
I think analysis of the games left, shows why the bookies don't consider us one of the favourites to go down.




The games each team have left are remarkably similar.
We have to finished third (or better) from 6 with a 2pt + goal difference head start.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

We ‘should’ lose those first three, but could stay up with later wins.

Although the timeless run of never winning must play on the minds of players.

We won't lose to Arsenal.

 

[jimhigham]

I’ve a feeling the many points we’ve dropped leading up to the lockdown will cost us. Pessimistic for this season yet, strangely, still optimistic for the future.

 

[Danny Wilson Said]

Being optimistic, I think we could benefit from the absence of home fans. We've all heard the crowd getting restless at some of the slow build-up and the players won't be under any pressure to launch it instead of following the plan. And there won't be the mass exodus to the trains five minutes from time. Away from home we've done okay in recent (!) games, plus we're due a win or two. Ally Mac will be an unknown quantity for opponents and will unlock defences enough times that even our forwards might score.

Being pessimistic, ... no, let's not.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

We won't lose to Arsenal.

If the fixtures go in the order they were supposed to before lockdown and we play Arsenal first, then in theory we should benefit from the fact that they will have played away to Man City in the previous midweek. That was supposed to happen originally too but then their visit to the Etihad was called off, so in a small way we've got a tiny advantage back.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Without staying the obvious we need a few goals from somewhere.

In terms of converting chances, our best players are our slow ones but do they contribute enough elsewhere?

Murray
Jahanbakhsh
Groß
Mooy

Then you have faster players who have missed lots of important chances this season:

March
Maupay
Trossard

So perhaps, the goal scoring hero we so urgently need might be a newish player or a player returning from injury or loan?

Mac Allister
Connolly
Andone
Izquierdo

 

[Icy Gull]

But potentially anything can happen. We could even potentially finish with 56 points.

Which is more likely though, your scenario or mine?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Which is more likely though, your scenario or mine? [emoji38]ol:

The most likely is that a 2 point lead with superior goal difference will potentially be a key factor.

 

[Swansman]

Before the break I thought the chance of staying up was bigger than the risk of going down, but I think this break will be advantageous to better teams & players and so it looks pretty difficult now with the remaining fixtures.

Those red cards on Andone & Mooy could prove very costly in the end. Strictly football wise, Brighton deserve to remain in the league - for the most part been far better than the other relegation contenders and teams like Newcastle and Southampton, but unfortunately things like these cards and not having one single midfielder able to score a goal could turn costly in the end.

On the bright side, I think if there's relegation in the end, the club will bounce right back up if it keeps Potter & the key players.