Gus gently pissed-off in pre-Burnley press conference about stats

[Acker79]

Goodness me this is a thread full of "lump it forward" types isn't it?

We are 7th, aren't we? ....and going for our 4th home win on the bounce tomorrow?

Or am I missing something?

You might be missing that lumping it forward isn't the only way to get it into the other half. That suggesting a high pass completion rate is not as impressive when a large percentage are among three players on the edge of our own area under no pressure as it would be if more of them were passes that pressured opponents through passing our way through their midfield is not a criticism of the identity gus wants us to create for ourselves and our playing style.

Just because some of us are not falling over ourselves with praise over a stat showing a high completion of passes doesn't mean we are lump it forward merchants. I'm not complaining about our ability to retain the ball and not feel pressured to rush it forward when there aren't options, I'm simply saying that given that context, you can't complain about high pass rates not getting much acknowledgement.

 

[brunswick]

anyone can pass it around in their own half at home when losing or drawing.....the away team doesnt mind at all.

silly stat.......real stats are goals, shut outs, and shots.

 

[Tooting Gull]

I think we have 50 yellows. In a 24-team league, that is a staggering 12 more than the NEXT WORST team.

I wouldn't say we were particularly dirty either, in which case that suggests that a number of other things need urgent attention. Maybe some people don't know how to tackle, are too slow to play in this league, aren't cute enough when it comes to refs. There is no excuse for dissent, and since both the manager and the assistant manager have also been sent off for that this season, it's a perfectly valid question. Gus should be worried about it, the FA must be watching the situation and more costly bans loom.

It's probably not a question, though, that the more gutless amateurs in the press conference who want to be Gus's mate would ask.

 

[Storer 68]

Why praise the team for making lots of passes if 75% of them are between Greer, Dunk and Ankergren? The stats that show us as having a lot of yellow cards are as misleading as the number of passes. Stats need context and interpretation to mean anything.

How can a statistic showing us "having a lot of yellow cards" be "misleading."

We have more yellow cards than any other team in this league

 

[Acker79]

How can a statistic showing us "having a lot of yellow cards" be "misleading."

We have more yellow cards than any other team in this league

Because it doesn't show, for example, that we got 5 yellow cards on 8 fouls v leeds, and leeds got 5 yellows on 18 fouls, that we got 5 v middlesborough on 12 fouls and they got 3 on 17 fouls. It doesn't show that (according to another poster, I haven't checked this out for myself) our opponents have been awarded as many yellow cards as we have so far, and we have committed just under 300 fouls, whereas our opponents have fouled us over 375 times.

Yes, we have received more yellow cards, but it isn't such a direct relationship to us being a dirty team. That is why it's misleading; being the team with the most yellow cards doesn't necessarily make us the dirtiest team.

 

[Deleted User X18H]

Nooney's is up now. So funny 'what's your highlight of the season so far Craig?' - Doncaster! ' No hang on, I played against Liverpool didn't I'

Classic

Cost me a bacon sandwhich!

Nice lad though.

 

[Commander]

Nooney's is up now. So funny 'what's your highlight of the season so far Craig?' - Doncaster! ' No hang on, I played against Liverpool didn't I'

Classic

Cost me a bacon sandwhich!

Nice lad though.

Wow. Imagine what you would be like if you were actually important.

 

[Bozza]

Because it doesn't show, for example, that we got 5 yellow cards on 8 fouls v leeds, and leeds got 5 yellows on 18 fouls, that we got 5 v middlesborough on 12 fouls and they got 3 on 17 fouls. It doesn't show that (according to another poster, I haven't checked this out for myself) our opponents have been award as many yellow cards as we have so far, and we have committed just under 300 fouls, whereas our opponents have fouled us over 375 times.

Yes, we have received more yellow cards, but it isn't such a direct relationship to us being a dirty team. That is why it's misleading, the most yellow cards doesn't necessarily make us the dirtiest team.

All fouls are not equal. As such, there will not always be an equal correlation between fouls and cards.

And there are several interpretations of what 'dirty' could mean. You seem to be erring towards one where number of fouls determines dirtiness. Another could be the type of fouls, i.e. being particularly cynical, and that is where we seem to be placed - rightly or wrongly. Lewis Dunk, for example, seems to have 'taken one for the team' on a few occasions - the opposition are in a threatening position and if they got past him we'd be in danger of conceding. Dunk breaks up the play with a foul and takes a card. Professional, cynical, or dirty? Or all 3?

 

[Acker79]

All fouls are not equal. As such, there will not always be an equal correlation between fouls and cards.

And there are several interpretations of what 'dirty' could mean. You seem to be erring towards one where number of fouls determines dirtiness. Another could be the type of fouls, i.e. being particularly cynical, and that is where we seem to be placed - rightly or wrongly. Lewis Dunk, for example, seems to have 'taken one for the team' on a few occasions - the opposition are in a threatening position and if they got past him we'd be in danger of conceding. Dunk breaks up the play with a foul and takes a card. Professional, cynical, or dirty? Or all 3?

They are not. But not all yellow cards are for fouls. Does 'dissent' make you a dirty player or just a bad loser? Does removing your shirt to celebrate a goal make you dirty? While some of our fouls may be more worthy of a booking than others, our opponents have committed over 75 more fouls than us, even if they are minor, persistent fouling is a bookable offence, even when the fouls are less severe. All this assuming the ref is capable, 'fair' and consistent, isn't a homer or an awayer, isn't inept and easily swayed.

But all this adds more to my initial point 'number of yellow cards' doesn't accurately reflect how 'dirty' a team is however you define dirty.

 

[Bozza]

our opponents have committed over 75 more fouls than us, even if they are minor, persistent fouling is a bookable offence, even when the fouls are less severe.

...if they are committed by the same player, maybe. Looking at an aggregate number of fouls over 21 games, so well over 200 opposing players, can not give any indication of whether any particular players committed a string of minor fouls in any one of those games.

375 fouls (if true) divided by 21 games and, say, 12 opposing players per game averages 1 and a bit fouls per opposing player per game.

You seem to be suggesting we've been unlucky. I'll be the first to concede I have a dreadful memory for recollecting specifics in games over a season, but I remember a fair few times where I thought "we were lucky to not pick up a card there", whilst I'm not sure I can remember any where I thought "that was a harsh card."

 

[Marshal Josip Tito]

Wow. Imagine what you would be like if you were actually important.

Quite.

How on earth does this illiterate self important dullard get anywhere near the players and staff at our club? I am genuinely baffled

 

[Pevenseagull]

over to Sidhu ....

"Statistics are like miniskirts, they reveal more than what they hide"

 

[Acker79]

You seem to be suggesting we've been unlucky. I'll be the first to concede I have a dreadful memory for recollecting specifics in games over a season, but I remember a fair few times where I thought "we were lucky to not pick up a card there", whilst I'm not sure I can remember any where I thought "that was a harsh card."

I don't mean to suggest we've been unlucky. Or any less lucky than opponents. I think there have been incidents where we got cards we shouldn't (calderon v sunderland and saints off the top of my head) and where we didn't and we should have (Painter v saints). I imagine most teams have examples where they got cards they shouldn't and where they didn't get card and should have. It's why I didn't specifically mention erroneous cards - all teams have them, and on balance they probably cancel out through all the teams.

I'm simply saying
1) yellow card count isn't accurate enough on it's own to be a measure of how dirty a team is,
2) we are giving what we get, our opponents are fouling more frequently, and our opponents get as many bookings as we do. There's something about games involving brighton and hove albion that seems to result in more cards. I don't know if it's us being less cultured in this division so fouling more, which causes bad feelings in our opponents who then go for their receipt, or if it's our opponents being more physical and fouling us so we go in for our receipt, or if our reputation for foreign style means there's a perception we dive more so get less protection from refs and that we won't like the english get stuck in style so our opponents go a little over the top at times, or if i's something else, whatever. But games involving brighton seem to have higher yellow card counts for both teams, unfortunately all our games involve brighton, so our yellow card count seems to have a high baseline, whereas our opponents seem to have a lower base line with spikes when they play us.

 

[Acker79]

...if they are committed by the same player, maybe. Looking at an aggregate number of fouls over 21 games, so well over 200 opposing players, can not give any indication of whether any particular players committed a string of minor fouls in any one of those games.

375 fouls (if true) divided by 21 games and, say, 12 opposing players per game averages 1 and a bit fouls per opposing player per game.

How often are fouls that evenly distributed, though? You don't honestly believe 12 players of every team commit one foul each per match, do you? Proper statistical analysis would involve applying the poisson distribution model to see how likely the fouls are to be spread around teams, and how often particular players foul more frequently.

I would 'guestimate' that opponents distribution is not much different to our own, and that generally speaking, when there is such a large difference in number of fouls (25%) there should be a difference in yellow card count. But again, I'm not complaining, merely trying to illustrate how little a simple stat can tell us on its own.

 

[Bozza]

How often are fouls that evenly distributed, though? You don't honestly believe 12 players of every team commit one foul each per match, do you? Proper statistical analysis would involve applying the poisson distribution model to see how likely the fouls are to be spread around teams, and how often particular players foul more frequently.

I would 'guestimate' that opponents distribution is not much different to our own, and that generally speaking, when there is such a large difference in number of fouls (25%) there should be a difference in yellow card count. But again, I'm not complaining, merely trying to illustrate how little a simple stat can tell us on its own.

I'm out after this because I'm getting bored.

All I'm saying is that you can't say "they've fouled 375 times, we've fouled 300 so they should have had more cards for persistent fouling" because "persistent fouling", when you see the referee point to a few areas of the pitch as he cards a player, relates to that single player alone.

 

[SeagullSongs]

Here's some disciplinary statistics I just posted on twitter about League games:

"Despite having the worst disciplinary record in the League, only 6 times have Brighton made more fouls than their opponents this season."

"And only in 7/21 games have we received more yellow cards than our opponents."

"#bhafc have averaged 1.90 yellow cards per game at home in the League, and 2.91 yellow cards per game away."

"Our opponents have averaged 2.70 yellow cards per League game at the Amex and 2.36 yellow cards per game at their respective homes."

Anything interesting to pick out from there? It seems to agree with the conclusion that we are infact not relatively dirty, but the games we're involved in tend to have more yellow cards and fouls than other games.

We have received 51 yellow, our opponents 53, we have committed 234 fouls (according to the BBC) and our opponents 291.

Not once have our opponents failed to receive a yellow card during a League match, we have avoided being booked in 3 matches.

 

[clippedgull]

I think we have 50 yellows. In a 24-team league, that is a staggering 12 more than the NEXT WORST team.

I wouldn't say we were particularly dirty either, in which case that suggests that a number of other things need urgent attention. Maybe some people don't know how to tackle, are too slow to play in this league, aren't cute enough when it comes to refs. There is no excuse for dissent, and since both the manager and the assistant manager have also been sent off for that this season, it's a perfectly valid question. Gus should be worried about it, the FA must be watching the situation and more costly bans loom.

It's probably not a question, though, that the more gutless amateurs in the press conference who want to be Gus's mate would ask.

Top post.

 

[Turkey]

Take it no one saw Gary Neville's Sky stuff on Barcelona this week and how the passing between the goalkeeper and back four was so effective then?

Just because a lot of the passes are at the back doesn't mean they're not useful and effective.

 

[minnieme]

New brain?

he's right your'e wrong.

 

[Acker79]

Take it no one saw Gary Neville's Sky stuff on Barcelona this week and how the passing between the goalkeeper and back four was so effective then?

Just because a lot of the passes are at the back doesn't mean they're not useful and effective.

Just because something is effective for Barcelona, doesn't mean it is for Brighton. Barcelona have a serious threat when they get forward, they don't often have games without a shot on target.

Teams can sit back and let us dawdle with the ball on the edge of the area confident they have a good chance of stopping us playing through them. Barcelona play teams that know they can't just let Barcelona play around with it. As they are always a threat, barcelona will find it easier to draw people out of position and create space. We had that luxury last season.

This year we are not the big dogs, teams come to us with discipline, focus, and without fear of us, making our tactics of passing it around the back to create space up field much less effective than it was last year.

But again, I stress, I'm not complaining that we keep trying to play this way. We will improve if we keep at it, and our team starts achieving what we know they are capable of.