[Albion] Group Ticket Ballot.

[dazzer6666]

Yes, you're right. I'm the one who's dumb at maths.

I *think* how it works is that everyone enters the ballot individually.

If you get a ticket and one or more of the other people in your bubble also do, you can all sit together. That's the only diffrerence. If you get a ticket, and no-one else does, you go on your own (or turn down the ticket).

Don’t think that’s right. It’s all or none for tickets and seat selection is separate. Below is a quote from the article on the website

‘ Being part of the same group means you will be successful in the ballot together, it does not require you to sit together and does not guarantee seats being available together (please note by having a group this will not increase or decrease your likelihood of success).’

https://tickets.brightonandhovealbion.com/en-GB/categories/ballots

That's what confused me.......I can't work out how the numbers are selected/drawn for there to be an equal chance of being drawn out if you're either in, or not in, a bubble.

I don't think it can be 'one ticket per bubble' going into the draw. Let's say there are 2000 tickets available and bubbles of (using 20,000 STH to make the maths easier) the following:

1000 singles - 1000 entries
4000 in pairs - 2000 entries
6000 in threes - 2000 entries
4000 in fours - 1000 entries
5000 in fives - 1000 entries

Overall chance is 2000/20000 or 1/10

1000 singles - 1000 entries - chance is now 1/7 as 7000 entries if each 'bubble' gets one
4000 in pairs - 2000 entries - chance is 2/7, but each entry covers 2 tickets so is still 1/7
6000 in threes - 2000 entries - chance is 3/7, but each entry covers 3 tickets so is 1/7
4000 in fours - 1000 entries - chance is 1/7, but each entry covers 4 tickets so 1/28
5000 in fives - 1000 entries - chance is 1/7 but each entry covers 5 tickets so 1/35

Lucky Tony has an army of maths geeks working for him to work this out fairly

 

[swindonseagull]

The technicalities are a welcome distraction though. I don’t actually want to risk going to games.

We won't be applying for tickets for a while so theres another 2 available.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

That's what confused me.......I can't work out how the numbers are selected/drawn for there to be an equal chance of being drawn out if you're either in, or not in, a bubble.

I don't think it can be 'one ticket per bubble' going into the draw. Let's say there are 2000 tickets available and bubbles of (using 20,000 STH to make the maths easier) the following:

1000 singles - 1000 entries
4000 in pairs - 2000 entries
6000 in threes - 2000 entries
4000 in fours - 1000 entries
5000 in fives - 1000 entries

Overall chance is 2000/20000 or 1/10

1000 singles - 1000 entries - chance is now 1/7 as 7000 entries if each 'bubble' gets one
4000 in pairs - 2000 entries - chance is 2/7, but each entry covers 2 tickets so is still 1/7
6000 in threes - 2000 entries - chance is 3/7, but each entry covers 3 tickets so is 1/7
4000 in fours - 1000 entries - chance is 1/7, but each entry covers 4 tickets so 1/28
5000 in fives - 1000 entries - chance is 1/7 but each entry covers 5 tickets so 1/35

Lucky Tony has an army of maths geeks working for him to work this out fairly

But regardless of the existence of groups there are still 2000 tickets available and 20000 in the ballot therefore the probability is still 1/10. The probability would only change if one winner were drawn at a time which would introduce conditional probability into the equation.

 

[Bob!]

I posted this on the other thread but in case you've missed it.

I do not know if this has already been mentioned on the thread. I just spoke to the club on live chat and you do not initially opt out of the ballot. If you are drawn out of the hat, you will be notified, within this notification there will be an opt out option. So, it seems you get 6 opt out options if you get drawn out 6 times or they are just doing away with the 6 opt outs, not sure. If you don't get drawn out, no worries. Previously, they said if you were drawn out, you either go to the match, sell the ticket online or lose the money /ticket.

This sounds a better way of doing things.

With regard 1 person in a group not wanting to go if the group is pulled out, yes that 1 person can opt out and the others go.

So, if the opt-out is after the draw and you're saying you don't have to put it on the exchange because you just opt out, are the club then doing a second draw for the tickets of all those that opt out?

And then another draw for all those that opt out from the second draw?

And then another draw?

Has to be an opt out before the draw, surely?

 

[dazzer6666]

But regardless of the existence of groups there are still 2000 tickets available and 20000 in the ballot therefore the probability is still 1/10. The probability would only change if one winner were drawn at a time which would introduce conditional probability into the equation.

Yep, thanks....that’s what I couldn’t see if bubbles were allocated a single draw ticket as some have suggested. I don’t think that’ll be the case, all 20,000 will be in at the start.

Ticket 1 drawn, 5 person bubble allocated from the 2000
Ticket 2 drawn, 1995 available
Etc

 

[kevo]

Yep, thanks....that’s what I couldn’t see if bubbles were allocated a single draw ticket as some have suggested. I don’t think that’ll be the case, all 20,000 will be in at the start.

Ticket 1 drawn, 5 person bubble allocated from the 2000
Ticket 2 drawn, 1995 available
Etc

So on that basis, everyone does have an equal chance - but capacity will just fill more quickly if more big groups are chosen.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Yep, thanks....that’s what I couldn’t see if bubbles were allocated a single draw ticket as some have suggested. I don’t think that’ll be the case, all 20,000 will be in at the start.

Ticket 1 drawn, 5 person bubble allocated from the 2000
Ticket 2 drawn, 1995 available
Etc

Apologies if I confuse things even more here but in that case ‘Ticket 1’ out of 20,000 is one person’s ticket. If the other 4 in that persons bubble are also represented by a ticket number, surely a bubble of 5 have a greater opportunity of being selected than an individual?

E.g On the first ticket to be drawn they’d have a 5/20,000 chance while an individual has a 1/20,000 chance?

 

[dazzer6666]

Apologies if I confuse things even more here but in that case ‘Ticket 1’ out of 20,000 is one person’s ticket. If the other 4 in that persons bubble are also represented by a ticket number, surely a bubble of 5 have a greater opportunity of being selected than an individual?

E.g On the first ticket to be drawn they’d have a 5/20,000 chance while an individual has a 1/20,000 chance?

Yup.......nightmare isn’t it. There must be a simple methodology for ‘all have an equal chance’ but I can’t work it out......[emoji2369][emoji2369]

Doesn’t work to have the bubble as a single ticket, doesn’t work to have the individuals in a bubble all included.......

 

[kevo]

Apologies if I confuse things even more here but in that case ‘Ticket 1’ out of 20,000 is one person’s ticket. If the other 4 in that persons bubble are also represented by a ticket number, surely a bubble of 5 have a greater opportunity of being selected than an individual?

E.g On the first ticket to be drawn they’d have a 5/20,000 chance while an individual has a 1/20,000 chance?

Nah, a group has one ticket and an individual has one ticket. Equal chance of being drawn.

If a group ticket is drawn, all 4 people (or whatever) in the group get to go.

 

[dazzer6666]

Nah, a group has one ticket and an individual has one ticket. Equal chance of being drawn.

If a group ticket is drawn, all 4 people (or whatever) in the group get to go.

LOL, I’m too thick/tired for this......[emoji23][emoji23]

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Apologies if I confuse things even more here but in that case ‘Ticket 1’ out of 20,000 is one person’s ticket. If the other 4 in that persons bubble are also represented by a ticket number, surely a bubble of 5 have a greater opportunity of being selected than an individual?

E.g On the first ticket to be drawn they’d have a 5/20,000 chance while an individual has a 1/20,000 chance?

No, because we are talking about the probability of an individual being chosen which remains 2000/20000 and the probability of not being chosen is 18000/20000. It makes no difference that your name is attached to other names in a group, you still have an individual probability. Remember the ballot occurs instantaneously. There is not a sequence of ballots for every ticket drawn which would affect the probabilities.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Amazing how seriously folks are taking this.

Get Rachel Riley in, two from the bottom and three from the top.

QUE SERA SERA.

 

[kevo]

Amazing how seriously folks are taking this.

Get Rachel Riley in, two from the bottom and three from the top.

QUE SERA SERA.

Riley? We need VORDERMAN.

 

[kevo]

LOL, I’m too thick/tired for this......[emoji23][emoji23]

Me too. I'm gonna have a lie down.

 

[WilburySeagull]

No, because we are talking about the probability of an individual being chosen which remains 2000/20000 and the probability of not being chosen is 18000/20000. It makes no difference that your name is attached to other names in a group, you still have an individual probability. Remember the ballot occurs instantaneously. There is not a sequence of ballots for every ticket drawn which would affect the probabilities.

My head hurts. I see what you say but if you are in a group of 5 and each member has the same chance and all members get tickets if one does surely you have 5 chances in the draw? I am not claiming to be right just trying to understand.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

My head hurts. I see what you say but if you are in a group of 5 and each member has the same chance and all members get tickets if one does surely you have 5 chances in the draw? I am not claiming to be right just trying to understand.

That does seem to be a flaw in my argument ! Perhaps the club will send an e mail containing the statistical analysis but at least it gives me something to ponder today. I love a maths problem.

 

[kevo]

That does seem to be a flaw in my argument ! Perhaps the club will send an e mail containing the statistical analysis but at least it gives me something to ponder today. I love a maths problem.

I'm now convinced this is straightforward! Every group or 'bubble' is given one entry in the draw. And all those people in the group get a ticket if they are successful. Think of it like balls being drawn out of the velvet bag:

Ball 1: Billy Nomates
Ball 2: Bob and Veronica
Ball 3: Mary, Mungo and Midge
Ball 4: John, Paul, George and Ringo
Ball 5: Shaggy, Fred, Daphne, Velma and Scooby

Each ball has a 1 in 5 chance of being successful. So if ball 1 and ball 4 were drawn out, Billy would get a ticket, as would John, Paul, George and Ringo.

But all four of them still only have a 1 in 5 chance, just like Billy.

Simples.

 

[Pondicherry]

I'm now convinced this is straightforward! Every group or 'bubble' is given one entry in the draw. And all those people in the group get a ticket if they are successful. Think of it like balls being drawn out of the velvet bag:

Ball 1: Billy Nomates
Ball 2: Bob and Veronica
Ball 3: Mary, Mungo and Midge
Ball 4: John, Paul, George and Ringo
Ball 5: Shaggy, Fred, Daphne, Velma and Scooby

Each ball has a 1 in 5 chance of being successful. So if ball 1 and ball 4 were drawn out, Billy would get a ticket, as would John, Paul, George and Ringo.

But all four of them still only have a 1 in 5 chance, just like Billy.

Simples.

This works but you would have to draw one ball at a time to make sure you don't go over the physical capacity limit. I would use a computer to do this rather than a tombola (with pen and notepad). Although you could televise a live draw on Seagulls TV I guess.

 

[Is it PotG?]

That's a thought. Will the draw be done by some anonymous computer prog or is Barbs actually going to stand with a velvet ball bag, producing the lucky winners manually?

 

[Springal]

That's a thought. Will the draw be done by some anonymous computer prog or is Barbs actually going to stand with a velvet ball bag, producing the lucky winners manually?

Anyone that has emailed him stupid questions at 11pm on a Friday will be designed a 'heavier' ball so he knows not to pick them out as well