TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #241
I thought Italy was also in the kak?
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Greece crisis: Europe on edge over snap election
- Thread starter TomandJerry
- Start date
I thought Italy was also in the kak?
larus
Well-known member
Yes, with their GDP shrinking, their debt ratio is increasing even more. They may even be in budget surplus, but I'm not sure on that point.
The view on Greece seems to be that if they get away with softened terms, then this will empower the other Southern countries to seek better terms and debt forgiveness, which Germany, Finland, Netherlands aren't willing to countenance. I fear this is going to end badly, as the Euro is unworkable in it's current guise, as the only way it can work is like the UK, where wealth is distributed from the wealthy parts to the poorer. The EU is so far removed from this, it is doomed.
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Nitram
Well-known member
- Jul 16, 2013
- 2,265
Italy as well but there is higher unemployment and unrest in Spain so I think they are more closely aligned to the situation in Greece. As the above poster outlines the difference in economics between Northern and Southern Europe make the euro unworkable in the long run as the poorer nation states have not got the same economic parity.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
Italy is probably closer to Greece than you think especially in its economy shrinking and an inability to deal with its bloated civil service that continues to suck the life out of the country. Have a read of this and grimace. It's not pretty reading at all. In a nutshell, Italy is f*cked. http://www.capx.co/dithering-while-italy-crumbles/
Who's view is this?
I firmly believe that Greece will get a new deal from their lenders. It might make the other countries you allude to feel empowered but these situations will be dealt with on a case-by-case situation. Just because Greece get a new deal it does not mean others will.
As an aside, I think this new Greek government are going about their negotiations brilliantly and this certainly helps their situation.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
Really?
Guardian newspaper this morning:Greek bailout talks failure
Independent Newspaper this morning: Germany rejects Greek suggestions it can renege on any of its debt
Le Figaro: Eurogroup in Greek impasse: "...failed to reach an agreement on Greek debt, even a joint statement. An almost unprecedented outcome."
Der Spiegel: The new government in Athens is intent on forcing Europe to change its approach to Greek debt -- thus far in vain. A confrontation is brewing, and both sides stand to lose"
Der Telegraaf (Dutch newspaper):"Eurogroup meeting on the dispute with Greece has produced nothing at all last night...both parties thereto are still miles apart, as evidenced by the fact that the coming days will not negotiate further"
Finland Times: "Prime Minister Alexander Stubb on Thursday said Finland's policy toward Greece's loan arrangement remains unchanged...According to Stubb, Finland is not going to offer debt forgiveness on the loans issued"
Irish Times: "Meeting on Greek bailout programme breaks up in disarray. Greek finance minister Varoufakis pulls plug after joint statement agreed in Brussels"
Doesn't sound like Greece are doing brilliantly to me. Mind you, the British, German, French, Dutch, Finnish and Irish newspapers could all be wrong, eh?
The initial talks have reached deadlock. I agree. But this is a big deal and a big negotiation and this story has a long way to go. There will be plenty of twists and turns. It's way too early to say I'm right or wrong. I think they will get a new deal though, and that will mean they have done well. Feel free to bump this in a few months time and remind me I was wrong....but not now.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
Seriously, on what basis do you think the Greeks have handled negotiations 'brilliantly'? That's a very bold statement and completely at odds with anything at all that I can find anywhere online. Please explain.
Secondly, what makes you think that they will get a new deal? Not only is there the threat from other Southern European nations asking for the same, and it looks ever more likely that Podemos will be part of the next Spanish government and in which case, they will DEFINITELY ask for the same as Greece, in fact they will demand it. But if you read the newspaper articles from Germany, Holland, Finland they have internal pressures not to bow to Greek demands because this will cost their own voters more money. Those comments from the likes of Merkel, Rutte and Stubb in particular are pretty emphatic. If Greece come away with a deal then it's a major humiliation for them after such strong words.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #249
ECB "raises Greece's liquidity allowance'
The euro has surged higher in the last couple of minutes, following a report that the European Central Bank has raised the amount of liquidity available to Greek banks.
That’s according to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper (FAZ to its friends)
ECB RAISES GREECE ELA ALLOWANCE TO €65BN: FAZ
It’s one crisis meeting down, one to go, for Angela Merkel today.
Arriving at the Summit meeting from the Ukraine talks in Minsk, the German chancellor said she was looking forward to welcoming Alexis Tsipras.
She also dampened hopes of a breakthough, saying that the Greek crisis would only be discussed on the margins.
And Merkel didn’t hint at a change of policy, stating that Germany is always willing to show solidarity as long as rules are followed.
The euro has surged higher in the last couple of minutes, following a report that the European Central Bank has raised the amount of liquidity available to Greek banks.
That’s according to Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper (FAZ to its friends)
ECB RAISES GREECE ELA ALLOWANCE TO €65BN: FAZ
It’s one crisis meeting down, one to go, for Angela Merkel today.
Arriving at the Summit meeting from the Ukraine talks in Minsk, the German chancellor said she was looking forward to welcoming Alexis Tsipras.
She also dampened hopes of a breakthough, saying that the Greek crisis would only be discussed on the margins.
And Merkel didn’t hint at a change of policy, stating that Germany is always willing to show solidarity as long as rules are followed.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
few months? 28th Febuary the current bailout conditions end. that is expected to roll over, but Greece doesnt want it to. if a deal isnt settle, Greek state and banks have no liquidity and the country goes into paralysis, until they either default or... not sure what alternatives exist. if they do get a new deal, they may have done well, but Germany and the Eurozone would have lost. every other nation will see that the way to deal with the ECB is play hard and call their bluff. negotiations have run in such a way both sides have back themselfs into corners. there is no win win scenario, greece wins euro loses or otherway round. one of them has to backdown massivly.
Elvis
Well-known member
Good article. Christ looks like the whole country is on a simillar course to the Costa Concordia!!
larus
Well-known member
The view from several financial websites that I read. For example, FT, zero hedge, telegraph, all with differing slants, but the overriding view is that the rise of political parties, in countries undergoing austerity, who are opposed to the EU and the doctrine being handed down, stops the support of the encumbent governments of these countries to allow a renegotiation of the terms of the bailout.
Also, the constitutional court in Germany has already fired a warning shot across the ECB's bows as to what can and can't be done in terms of fiscal transfers. The anti EU party in Germany is gaining popularity, and there are professors who have launched legal challenges to stop what's going on. Any additional fiscal transfer from rich to poor nations is very likely to trigger additional challenges there, and is likely to be deemed illegal. Hence the ECB QE being underwritten by each national Central bank by about 80%. Until there is full fiscal, economic and political union, the euro is doomed.
Please advise of any currency union ever which has been successful WITHOUT a fiscal Union. I'm not talking of fixing an exchange rate, I mean a true currency union. Yep, none.
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I just think the Greek guy is going about it the right way. He's very self-effacing and plays on his democratic mandate which is smart. It's very clear in his demands, is presenting an obvious case for Greek growth and repayment but has crucially not drawn a line in the sand with his demands. I also feel the debt cancellation is a marker in the negotiations, nothing more.
Merkel is a shrewd operator and a supreme negotiator but this guy is doing well and I feel will get something from her. You cannot read too much into that first meeting; it was merely both sides putting their cards on the table. You say Merkel has been emphatic with her statements. Sure, but she has also given herself wriggle-room with the solidarity comment she made a week or so ago. The EU is about cooperation between nations, this will win out. I'm confident of this.
These are not just my views, they are shared by other commentators as well.
And above all, how can you not want to help a man who has the future of his nation resting on his shoulders but turns up for make-or-break meetings rocking a Shaun Ryder Great When Your Straight era Madchester drug dealer look?
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What worries me more is the prospect of Russia stepping in to bail out their left-wing potential supporters, Russia has a long back-history of involvement in Greek politics
. Some of our servicemen in Greece didn't get the chance to enjoy VE Day as they got caught up in a Communist insurrection in 1945. I think some were killed. Ironical considering what we had done for them.
Zero chance.
What, you don't think Russia would like to destabilise the EU? Every chance. I believe they have offered funding (in dodgy roubles) to the Greek government. Plus having an anti-Turkish country onside is always useful given the problems Russia has had with Turkey in the past.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #257
So if Russia bails out Greece, wouldn't they want Greece to use roubles as their own currency in order for them to scrap the euro?
Russia might like the idea but it's a non-starter for many reasons.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
For once in politics, we agree. There is now way in the world that the rest of NATO is going to let Greece invite Russian assistance for its financial problems and if Greece can be canny it could play this to its advantage however Russia's offer of help is a hollow one. Economically, it's in a terrible financial state and widespread corporate corruption and sanctions from the West over Ukraine are biting hard. People don't want to invest neither are they able to in what is rapidly becoming the kind of country that we associated with South America in the 70s. In fact the invasions into Ukraine are anomalous with Argentina's foray into the Falklands. It's all about appealing to your voters at home when your country is in the doldrums.
Have a read of this article from Fortune magazine this month for the full scale of the problems that Russia faces http://www.capx.co/external/keep-your-money-out-of-russia/
It was written by precisely the type of person who Russia should be bending over backwards to keep sweet but he knows the score. Putin and his cronies are so mired in corruption that their own country is suffering and suffering terribly.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 12,323
- Thread starter
- #260
The new leftist Greek government is arguing for an end to relentless cuts imposed as a condition of the country’s rescue funding and wants more time to prove that a more pro-growth approach will work better. But it faces opposition from other eurozone countries, most notably Germany, which have pushed for the strict terms of Greece’s €240bn (£180bn) bailout programme to stay in place. Talks in Brussels last week made no headway in resolving the standoff.
But Tsipras also faces growing criticism from hard-left militants in his own party for appearing to row back on some pre-election pledges to ditch austerity measures.
Asked about the Brussels talks, the 40-year-old prime minister told German news magazine Stern: “I expect difficult negotiations on Monday. But I am full of confidence.
“I am in favour of a solution where everyone wins. I want a win-win solution. I want to save Greece from tragedy and Europe from a split.”
“I promise you: Greece will, in six months’ time, be a completely different country,” he said.
Imagine another snap election where he is thrown out of power for softening his touch from pre election pledges
But Tsipras also faces growing criticism from hard-left militants in his own party for appearing to row back on some pre-election pledges to ditch austerity measures.
Asked about the Brussels talks, the 40-year-old prime minister told German news magazine Stern: “I expect difficult negotiations on Monday. But I am full of confidence.
“I am in favour of a solution where everyone wins. I want a win-win solution. I want to save Greece from tragedy and Europe from a split.”
“I promise you: Greece will, in six months’ time, be a completely different country,” he said.
Imagine another snap election where he is thrown out of power for softening his touch from pre election pledges